MPGe help & predictions

ajdelange

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Fuel in Venezuela is $0.02c per litre and Iran $0.06c. Thats the equivalent of $0.007c per kWh including ICE conversion. Fossil fuels can go low. Real low.
I've seen some pretty low rates for petrol at the pump in places like Kuwait and Bahrain but never that low! OTOH crude has recently, if briefly, traded at negative prices. Same idea as negative interest rates.
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ajdelange

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What costs does the 0.42 consist of?
My estimate of what the CT's will use per mile: 420 Wh/mi = 0.420 kWh/mi
 
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JBee

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I've seen some pretty low rates for petrol at the pump in places like Kuwait and Bahrain but never that low! OTOH crude has recently, if briefly, traded at negative prices. Same idea as negative interest rates.
Like negative interest rates, or paying interest for a positive bank balance, maths does not have a problem with operating under 0 in negatve numbers. The main question is always the number distribution and intended effect of whatever economic levers are pulled. In the end a lot of it is just information on a screen, and what markets react to it or not. (As EM says)

Like we had at the beginning of Covid in April where West Texas Crude went negative. There it was more expensive to turn off the tap then it was to let it run until the next upwards cycle. Russia was a large reason for it as they had just finished their EU pipeline, resulting in lower shipping costs that put pressure on the Saudis. Price only came up once the Russians agreed to restrict supply...which they still aren't happy about. There is far from a fossil fuel supply problem or "peak oil".

The main cause for a fossil fuel collapse is huge fuel capacity infrastructure and reduced demand.
Some return is better than none, especially if another banking collapse would result. You actually end up better off, paying for people to take your fuel then let GFC 2.0 happen in any case. Especially if you are sitting on the money press.

Inflation adjusted trends show this as well:

Tesla Cybertruck MPGe help & predictions inflation oil price
 

JBee

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My estimate of what the CT's will use per mile: 420 Wh/mi = 0.420 kWh/mi
Ah yep roger that. I thought it couldn't be the answer to life the universe and everything. ;-)

Do you have any mile/km for other costs like insurance and maintenance etc for a MX/CT?

I remember robotaxi was meant to be around $0.07c/mile. Not sure of the energy source for that though.
 

ajdelange

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I thought it couldn't be the answer to life the universe and everything.
Well it could be that too I suppose but I never thought of it in those terms.

Do you have any mile/km for other costs like insurance and maintenance etc for a MX/CT?
No as I have not owned one of these out of warranty (nor would I). All the minor repairs I have dealt with have been niggling things like door gaskets coming loose or seats getting jammed on their rails. The major ones (computer bricking the car) were ultimately solved in an hour by a kid with a laptop with the catch being that the car had to be transported 200 miles to get to the kid with the laptop. My experience thus far has been that maintenance cost is not that bad but that the cost of transporting the car to the maintenance (or conversely - the ranger system really works) would be the issue to a fleet operator.

As for insurance I haven't noticed a difference between the Telsas and any other similarly priced car but my sample size is n=2.

I remember robotaxi was meant to be around $0.07c/mile. Not sure of the energy source for that though.
That seems about right for the electricity alone at average US rates (and consumption of around 400 Wh/m). It wouldn't cover tyres or other maintenance nor insurance. But I don't see Robotaxis as reality for a long time (10 yrs at least).
 


rr6013

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The same argument can be made to get a return on investment. Ie some money is better than none, profits are made with electricity just as much so that point is mute anyway.

They make all their own pumping power...they have fuel. The fuel costs in those nations are the cost to get it into ICE tanks. And those prices are crazy low. Solar would have to be a tenth of the cost to compete with that.

Accordingly I'd expect poorer nations to take up more fossils and ICE whilst richer ones convert to EV. What we need is a solution to develop RE in poorer nations instead so they don't have to go through the fossil development cycle in the first place, like China did.

There are huge opportunities in doing so with embedded solar and storage, along with personal electric mobility all at a more affordable cost and none of the air pollution. All without the need for a grid too, because power can be moved "wirelessly" with batteries. Just like how wireless phones took off because nobody was interested in investing into copper phone line infrastructure. They can and should leap frog our tech and battery powering everything directly makes that possible without the dependency, manipulation, problems and cost of centralised energy distribution.
Now you’re dreaming…

30 yrs. into Future for wireless energy sans grid, sans infrastructure and sans economy of scale, Starlink is not beaming fusion energy to ground yet.

Venezuela and Iran fossil fuel costs are corner cases in isolation.

You are correct to assume fossil fuels will power under developed countries until costs flip in favor of EV transportation
 

Diehard

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Fuel in Venezuela is $0.02c per litre and Iran $0.06c. Thats the equivalent of $0.007c per kWh including ICE conversion. Fossil fuels can go low. Real low.
I don’t know much about Venezuela but Iran has been spending over $40 billion a year to subsidize the fuel to get it to that price for it’s citizens ($30 B in 2020). They would love folks driving EVs with Solar on their roof.
 

ajdelange

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I don’t know much about Venezuela but Iran has been spending over $40 billion a year to subsidize the fuel to get it to that price for it’s citizens ($30 B in 2020). They would love folks driving EVs with Solar on their roof.
Not at all! What they would love is for demand to go back up to the point where they could turn that $40 billion loss into $40 billion profit from export sales.
 
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Diehard

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Not at all! What they would love is for demand to go back up to the point where they could turn than $40 billion loss into $40 billion profit from export sales.
A bit of context would be nice. What I was referring to by “folks“ was their own citizens I mentioned in the previous sentence otherwise the entire country would collapse if there is no oil export. They can’t live off old poetry, caviar and fine rugs alone. Many down there still believe the old Shah’s codependent relationship with U.S. and his attempt to break it off is the reason for the mess today. U.S. wanted to continue the supply of cheap oil and Shah wanted a better deal. Next thing you know 2500 year old empire is down the tube so we can feed that Chevy Suburban in Texas. If Shah exported a little more Caviar and rugs and a lot less oil, he could still be king of the jungle over there. To make the short story long, yes, oil is all they got.
 

ajdelange

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...and fine rugs alone.
I swear I actually had this conversation with a US Customs official:
Official "That's not Iranian, is it?
Me: "It's Persian"
Official: "Oh, that's OK then."
 


ajdelange

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Guess I'd better tell the rest of the story. I bought the rug because Madeline Albright had issued a memorandum taking Iran off the black list just before I left on this trip. These two ladies hadn't gotten the memo evidently and rather than try to explain things to them and/or wait while they consulted a more senior officer I just answered as I did and when they said "OK" I was patting myself on the back thinking how clever I had been when they announced that there were now special offsets on duties from some middle eastern countries and asked me to wait while they looked in some thick notebook to see if Persia was on the list. It wasn't.

Your tax dollar at work.
 

JBee

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Well it could be that too I suppose but I never thought of it in those terms.

No as I have not owned one of these out of warranty (nor would I). All the minor repairs I have dealt with have been niggling things like door gaskets coming loose or seats getting jammed on their rails. The major ones (computer bricking the car) were ultimately solved in an hour by a kid with a laptop with the catch being that the car had to be transported 200 miles to get to the kid with the laptop. My experience thus far has been that maintenance cost is not that bad but that the cost of transporting the car to the maintenance (or conversely - the ranger system really works) would be the issue to a fleet operator.

As for insurance I haven't noticed a difference between the Telsas and any other similarly priced car but my sample size is n=2.

That seems about right for the electricity alone at average US rates (and consumption of around 400 Wh/m). It wouldn't cover tyres or other maintenance nor insurance. But I don't see Robotaxis as reality for a long time (10 yrs at least).
I see. What I was looking for was a $ figure to add to any km calculations that would allow me to easily calculate total cost of ownership per km/mile. I suppose your own particular sample size is small, just thought you might have come across such info. I'll do some google foo.
 

Sirfun

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A bit of context would be nice. What I was referring to by “folks“ was their own citizens I mentioned in the previous sentence otherwise the entire country would collapse if there is no oil export. They can’t live off old poetry, caviar and fine rugs alone. Many down there still believe the old Shah’s codependent relationship with U.S. and his attempt to break it off is the reason for the mess today. U.S. wanted to continue the supply of cheap oil and Shah wanted a better deal. Next thing you know 2500 year old empire is down the tube so we can feed that Chevy Suburban in Texas. If Shah exported a little more Caviar and rugs and a lot less oil, he could still be king of the jungle over there. To make the short story long, yes, oil is all they got.
The Shah would still be in power? The man was born in 1919, and died in 1980. Yes if he had played along, things could have been different. But, his days were numbered.
 
 




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