CT Solar - Cost Estimations/etc

[myrickma]

Solar Cover is one of my favorite options that will be available, and will most definitely get if the price is right. So let's do some math (very rough estimates, get ready!) haha

Musk says cover will gain about 15 miles/day (likely for dual motor)

1.
So how many KWh is 15 miles for the CT which we do not know the battery size yet.
We do know:
Model S Plaid: est .32 kWh/mile curb weight 4766
F150 Lightning: est .46-.50 (call it .48) kwh/mile curb weight: 6500
CT is "mid-sized" so will have a weight of 5000-6500, and superior batteries compared to the F150
so let's say .40 kwh/mile
.40 kwh/mile x 15 miles = 6 kwh/day generated (that's a 120 kwh battery pack, which seems right from estimates I've seen for dual motor)

average usable solar per day nationally is 5-6 hours (say 5.5), that's 1100 watts per hour (size of the array would be 1.1 kwhr)
current tesla panels are $2.01 /watt $2.01 x 1100 = $2211 (An exciting number, but one I believe is quite low)
It's unlikely that the CT solar will be that low $/watt.
Doing a quick estimate on my own house, solar roof is about $3.30/watt so lets use that
$3.30 x 1100 = $3630 (still a reasonable $ IMO, and probably more likely than 2211)
Now, the solar alone from that same estimate is $1.80/watt, $1.80 x 1100 = $1980 (Which would be S3XY)

2.
Here's the issue
Looking at the size of the cover (estimate it 32 sqft, 5.5 ft x 5.8 ft )
solar roof is 6 watts/sqft installed = 192 watts
panel is 18 watt/sqft installed = 576 watts
now these are installed, so looking at the dimensions of the panel via the spec sheet, I estimate you could fit 2 x 425 watt panels into that space (850 watts)
still 250 watts short

These are all estimates and all for fun of course. No doubt Musk will pull it off, I just don't see it being less than 5K.

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[John K]

$500.00 !

 

[electricAK]

Yeah...of all of Elon's promises about the CT, the solar tonneau cover is the one I'm most skeptical about. I also fail to see how the cover can generate 15miles/day even in the most ideal conditions.

My guess is that they reduce the spec to 10mi/day (in ideal conditions), and most people will achieve about half of that. That could still add up to 1,000miles of free driving/year, which is great.

For the record I believe Tesla will deliver on most or all of the other promises about the CT.

 

[Carlos Thomas]

I see it as a feature that would work well for folks that go to the airport and leave their Cybertruck there for several days or a week. By the time they get back to their truck it will not have lost 20% of the battery by just sitting for one week. Instead it will be topped off and allow for a free round trip.

For someone like me who works from home and does not drive everyday, it is possible I could drive around town for little trips here and there...and never have to plug in. If I am driving less than 100 miles per week, that could be possible in ideal sun conditions. My Cybertruck will be used more for longer adventures and very small (infrequent) in town (Bay Area) trips.

So in terms of options on my Tri-Motor CT, I would pay $5,000 for solar + $10,000 for the camping option + $10,000 for FSD.

 

[John K]

Tesla will shock and surprise everyone and make solar standard.

 

[Ogre]

I’d be quite happy if they just added some charging ports I could plug my own panels into. In a lot of ways thats preferable.

I take anything that wasn’t presented on launch night and shown on the spec sheet with a huge grain of salt. The 4 wheel steering is a lock in at least as an option, anything else don’t hold your breath. Musk tends to be very seat of his pants on Twitter.

 

[Qball]

completely agree with the assessment and math. We can’t change/cheat physics and limitation of solar panels, even your estimate I find very optimistic because the cover is not one solid piece of solar panels, it has to be sectioned into small strips as it fold and roll up. Personally it’s an unnecessary challenge for very little gain and certainly won’t be cheap. As long as Tesla gives me a port to plug some panels in I’ll be a happy man.

 

[Crissa]

There is nothing special about making strips of solar: that's what's glued into the big panels you have on your roof, long strips of connected semiconductor.

It won't need to flex, it'll have a steel backing, and so rolling up will be pretty easy. The very slats that make up the roll-up tonneau would need this solar laminated atop them, but it would be no different than applying a permanent protective wrap to the metal.

There is no question, "Can it be done?" It can. The question is, will it be worth it?

I say yes, but only Tesla knows.

-Crissa

 

[GnarlyDudeLive]

Unless is a standard/free option, I just don't see 5k-10k worth the investment of placing it on your vehicle. Much better off to invest that same money and place it on your house where you get the benefit of better positioning and 100% of the available sunlight at all times. Said collected energy then would simply offset your at home changing costs and at a much better rate plus federal and in some cases state tax breaks. I would guess whatever the solar tonneau is going to cost, you could achieve 3x-4x (or more) the power on a house install for the same cost after rebates.

Though give the solar bed cover to me at no charge and then well, its the best option available.

 

[Ogre]

Unless is a standard/free option, I just don't see 5k-10k worth the investment of placing it on your vehicle. Much better off to invest that same money and place it on your house where you get the benefit of better positioning and 100% of the available sunlight at all times. Said collected energy then would simply offset your at home changing costs and at a much better rate IMO.

Though give the solar bed cover to me at no charge and then well, its the best option available.

Past $5k I can’t see any logic in it. Below that it gets increasingly interesting.

I’ve said this before, but the most interesting thing about solar is less about day to day use and more about being on the road away from chargers for days at a time. Likewise, parking at the airport.

One other thought here. This means for me anyhow, I won’t need to get a second charging station. Even if it just erases nightly drain, I would only need to plug in once a week or before a trip.

 

[Ogre]

There is no question, "Can it be done?" It can. The question is, will it be worth it?

I think the big question is how many miles you’ll get per day not whether it’s possible or not.

Though also how fragile/ reliable will it be? Considering it’s going to be wound up over and over into a spool and likely have objects dropped on it, it needs to be pretty durable.

 

[Crissa]

Plastic solar panels are pretty durable. And with steel slats behind them? Darn near indestructible.

I don't get the 'I can put them on my house' argument.

I can't put solar panels in the street. I can't even put them over my parking space (too close to transmission wires). I can't charge from stationary panels when I'm on the road.

-Crissa

 

[GnarlyDudeLive]

Plastic solar panels are pretty durable. And with steel slats behind them? Darn near indestructible.

I don't get the 'I can put them on my house' argument.

I can't put solar panels in the street. I can't even put them over my parking space (too close to transmission wires). I can't charge from stationary panels when I'm on the road.

-Crissa

True, but you also cant charge if you vehicle is in a shaded area or if you are not parked in an optimal angle for solar collection you can charge poorly. If you are trying to stretch out an extra 10 miles per day (assuming the above don't interfere) and its not a cost issue or savings issue, then hey go for it for sure.

Financially, all I am saying is collecting the energy from a stationary and well positioned location such as a home roof is going to give you more bang for the buck and if you produce more than you should use with your vehicle, then that goes toward offsetting the homes electrical needs as well.

I am sure there is a ton of edge cases such as prolonged camping, and such where the costs for mobile solar could be justified.

All of the above assumes you own a home and are not a renter so there is a caveat to my madness.

 

[John K]

Price will be sub 3k. Higher and solar is a gimmick while price deters adoption. Well, I still may get at 5k but don’t tell Tesla

 

[Ogre]

Price will be sub 3k. Higher and solar is a gimmick while price deters adoption. Well, I still may get at 5k but don’t tell Tesla

Tesla switched the Model S to default to the 21” wheels which is a 4500 upgrade… and it’s defaulted on.

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