Roller Bed Cover Might Be Leaving

[anionic1]

I thought they might be trying to obtain more room for a one piece retractable cover in the roof. Unlikely, but possible.

It’s because the rolling cover needs a radius to turn down into the midgate. If that roof was flush with back of cab the radius turn for the rolling cover would have nowhere to make the turn. I just went back through the tonneau patent again and it does show a roof overhang. The patent dies I believe not correctly show the radius the cover needs to turn smoothly at that roof connection. That new overhang we are seeing is most certainly to accommodate a larger radius turn

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[Bill906]

It’ll happen Much much faster.

We have much better manufacturing then we did back then. Massively better. The idea of a factory which could produce a million vehicles a year was completely alien at the time. Musk is delivering 2 with the next month.

knowledge transfer is insanely fast now. So people quickly learn how much better it is.

I’m worried we might have a runaway condition. Gas prices go up, more people start buying EV’s. Demand for gas starts to drop, gas prices go up more, more people start buying EV’s, rinse and repeat. Soon gas is $20/gallon, ICE vehicles on every corner with signs that say “free to good home” and technologies that haven’t been able to transition to electric (Jet engines etc.) become outragously expensive.

I’m not saying this will happen, or it will be as dire as I suggest, just something I think about.

If you spray the truck down with PAM before you go muddying, the mud won’t even stick at all.

I know silly…. But people have done this with mountain bikes.

Many people spray the chute of their snow blower with WD-40 to keep slushy/sticky snow from sticking and clogging. I’ve ran into a few people who swear PAM works better. I’ve had mixed results with WD-40, never tried PAM.

 

[Ogre]

I’m worried we might have a runaway condition. Gas prices go up, more people start buying EV’s. Demand for gas starts to drop, gas prices go up more, more people start buying EV’s, rinse and repeat. Soon gas is $20/gallon, ICE vehicles on every corner with signs that say “free to good home” and technologies that haven’t been able to transition to electric (Jet engines etc.) become outragously expensive.

I’m not saying this will happen, or it will be as dire as I suggest, just something I think about.

I don’t think it’ll ever hit $20/ gallon, but I do think gas prices are going to go up not down as ICE vehicle sales start to decline. Then it’ll turn into a feedback loop, well before $20/ gallon, the value of ICE vehicles will start to tank. That reminds me… need to sell my Subaru as soon as I get the Cybertruck!

 

[Crissa]

Yeah, we're going to see some nasty negative feedback loops. And then, even profitable ventures will see banks jack their rates or pull credit altogether, which will hasten their fall.

Many people spray the chute of their snow blower with WD-40 to keep slushy/sticky snow from sticking and clogging. I’ve ran into a few people who swear PAM works better. I’ve had mixed results with WD-40, never tried PAM.

Yikes! Please don't just spray petrochemicals on the ground like that! Yuck. No wonder suburbia is some of the most polluted water...

-Crissa

 

[Halfblackviking]

The speed of EV adoption by 2025 is going to make your head spin. Most people have no clue.

Using "infrastructure" as an excuse is common but it's an uninformed viewpoint. Even at nearly 100% adoption by 2030, there will still be hundreds of millions of aging ICE vehicles on the road and gigawatt hours of EV charging will be but a small fraction of total electrical demand (less than 20%). And you would be surprised how much electricity is consumed during the process of refining crude oil into fuel.

Upgrading electrical infrastructure is fast and pays for itself in the form of increased profits for utilities. EV's are the best thing to ever happen to electrical providers, wholesale and retail alike.

Gas vehicles are going to look so unappetizing by 2030 that only people who can't afford new vehicles will be driving them (and the most fortunate of those will have found a good used EV so they could dump their aging ICE vehicle).

The speed of EV adoption by 2025 is going to make your head spin. Most people have no clue.

Using "infrastructure" as an excuse is common but it's an uninformed viewpoint. Even at nearly 100% adoption by 2030, there will still be hundreds of millions of aging ICE vehicles on the road and gigawatt hours of EV charging will be but a small fraction of total electrical demand (less than 20%). And you would be surprised how much electricity is consumed during the process of refining crude oil into fuel.

Upgrading electrical infrastructure is fast and pays for itself in the form of increased profits for utilities. EV's are the best thing to ever happen to electrical providers, wholesale and retail alike.

Gas vehicles are going to look so unappetizing by 2030 that only people who can't afford new vehicles will be driving them (and the most fortunate of those will have found a good used EV so they could dump their aging ICE vehicle).

I wouldn't disagree with you entirely... Viewing infrastructure challenges from only a power perspective is very simplistic. That will be the easiest problem to solve (in the US at least). From an environmental standpoint there are many challenges to capping/converting gas stations. The requirements to support the OTR trucking and airline industry are overlooked by most and will play a significanct factor in this equation...yes for personally owned vehicles...you also can't underestimate our governments infinite wisdom and ties to oil that will delay the process. I would estimate we only make it to 50-60% EV by 2030. Much of this will be thanks to TaaS as people abandon vehicle ownership in many parts of the country.

 

[HaulingAss]

I would estimate we only make it to 50-60% EV by 2030. Much of this will be thanks to TaaS as people abandon vehicle ownership in many parts of the country.

When you make a prediction like this, you have to specify whether you are projecting 50-60% of new light vehicle sales will be EV's by 2030 or whether you mean 50-60% of vehicle registrations will be EV's.

This is important because it's difficult to get a good laugh in when 2030 rolls around you have left yourself an out by saying, "No, all I was saying was 50-60% of road registered vehicles, not new car sales!".

I'm going to predict, in the US, 93% of all new light vehicle sales will be EV in 2030.

 

[rr6013]

This stuff is going to be around for 50 years or much longer.

How much longer?

IF there exists a MaxQ for AGW on planet Earth, when it is reached…

1. Cybertruck’s rollup tonneau cover works fine
2. Steam engines never go away
3. 100% Electrification is done, working
4. Supercharger rates are cheaper during daylight hours and driving is free.
5. What kind of industry can you create when you have insanely cheap power for 12 hours a day
6. mothballed/occasionally ran/practice refinery/coal/fracking technology are scrapped
7. Fossil fuel infrastructures disappear
8. Inferior internal combustion engine technologies are dead
9. There isn't a need for as many workers
10. Industrial manufacturing returns from overseas

What kind of industry do you need on a planet at MaxQ with insanely cheap power, ports underwater, coastal cities flooded, aquafer depletion, endemic disease, birth rate collapse, runaway desertification and ocean acidification?

 

[Ogre]

How much longer?

IF there exists a MaxQ for AGW on planet Earth, when it is reached…

1. Cybertruck’s rollup tonneau cover works fine
2. Steam engines never go away
3. 100% Electrification is done, working
4. Supercharger rates are cheaper during daylight hours and driving is free.
5. What kind of industry can you create when you have insanely cheap power for 12 hours a day
6. mothballed/occasionally ran/practice refinery/coal/fracking technology are scrapped
7. Fossil fuel infrastructures disappear
8. Inferior internal combustion engine technologies are dead
9. There isn't a need for as many workers
10. Industrial manufacturing returns from overseas

What kind of industry do you need on a planet at MaxQ with insanely cheap power, ports underwater, coastal cities flooded, aquafer depletion, endemic disease, birth rate collapse, runaway desertification and ocean acidification?

Optimistic is society manages to stumble along for at least another 50-100 years.

Pessimistic… I’m converting to solar/ off grid capable, live in a bunker-like concrete dome, and drive a truck I can self fuel and drive anywhere.

Either plan, I’ll still want our Kubota capable of diggin in the dirt.

 

[Ogre]

I'm going to predict, in the US, 93% of all new light vehicle sales will be EV in 2030.

Only because a few types of vehicles will be difficult to convert. Otherwise it would be 100%

 

[HaulingAss]

Only because a few types of vehicles will be difficult to convert. Otherwise it would be 100%

I was leaving 7% ICE sales because I think it will still be legal to purchase ICE by 2030 and there will always be around 5% of people who are too stupid or too stubborn to care that ICE is going to cost them a lot more money upfront and a lot more time and money over time than it's worth. I figure there is about 1-2% of ICE sales that would actually be better served by ICE due to special use cases but 5-6% will tag along out of stubbornness/stupidity. ?

 

[Ogre]

I was leaving 7% ICE sales because I think it will still be legal to purchase ICE by 2030 and there will always be around 5% of people who are too stupid or too stubborn to care that ICE is going to cost them a lot more money upfront and a lot more time and money over time than it's worth. I figure there is about 1-2% of ICE sales that would actually be better served by ICE due to special use cases but 5-6% will tag along out of stubbornness/stupidity. ?

By 2030, the economics are going to be too hard to ignore. Every time the number of vehicles sold doubles, the cost to produce batteries goes down 10% or more. By 2030, EV production will to double 4 - 5 more times. By 2025, the cost of Teslas is going to be noticeably lower than the cost of ICE.

As the number of ICE vehicles produced goes down, economies of scale go out the window. There might be a few F350s or something like that getting produced, but they will be very very niche. I suspect people who love ICE will keep them limping along via the used market and repairs.

 

[HaulingAss]

By 2030, the economics are going to be too hard to ignore. Every time the number of vehicles sold doubles, the cost to produce batteries goes down 10% or more. By 2030, EV production will to double 4 - 5 more times. By 2025, the cost of Teslas is going to be noticeably lower than the cost of ICE.

As the number of ICE vehicles produced goes down, economies of scale go out the window. There might be a few F350s or something like that getting produced, but they will be very very niche. I suspect people who love ICE will keep them limping along via the used market and repairs.

Economics are the number one factor of purchase decisions. It's super important for most buyers. But there will always be that ~5% who don't care much, even paying double isn't going to stop them from being economically blind when they are supporting something they think they believe in.

Never underestimate human stubbornness/stupidity!

 

[Ogre]

Economics are the number one factor of purchase decisions. It's super important for most buyers. But there will always be that ~5% who don't care much, even paying double isn't going to stop them from being economically blind when they are supporting something they think they believe in.

Never underestimate human stubbornness/stupidity!

I think you will find (more than) 5% of people who are that stupid.

But you need to find 5% of the population that stupid and who have disposable to buy a $75,000+ vehicle which will be tougher to find.

There will be no cheap ICE vehicles for broke idiots to buy.

 

[Halfblackviking]

When you make a prediction like this, you have to specify whether you are projecting 50-60% of new light vehicle sales will be EV's by 2030 or whether you mean 50-60% of vehicle registrations will be EV's.

This is important because it's difficult to get a good laugh in when 2030 rolls around you have left yourself an out by saying, "No, all I was saying was 50-60% of road registered vehicles, not new car sales!".

I'm going to predict, in the US, 93% of all new light vehicle sales will be EV in 2030.

I promise I will not be on this in 8 years to circle back on this conversation lol...however...I was referring to registered vehicles (not including those registered as collectors). sales may go above 90% but I would argue the number of new cars sold will drop drastically.

 

[Crissa]

Alas, there will be tons of cheap ICE right until there isn't.

-Crissa

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