? Tesla Q4 2021 Earnings Call Audio Webcast Stream - Listen Here @ 5:30 Eastern / 2:30 Pacific

[Usachris]

Listening to this earning call over lunch and everything I see is Tesla!

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[Ogre]

One choice is to not built it at all, and just say it wasn't feasible to make it affordable. Hope that doesn't happen though.

I never thought a $40,000 model was ever going to happen, and I placed an early order for the TriMotor and was fine with $69,000 price...(even $79,000 with all that it was offering). A couple of months ago they announced they would build a Quad motor, and maybe not the TriMotor. Okay, I will take one at $89,000, if it is delivered in 2023.

He made it pretty clear they were putting it off so they can focus on cranking out as many Model Ys as possible. This makes sense from all angles (except for love of CT).

• From a financial sense, the new Model Ys are profit machines. They will be less expensive to produce and they will likely have capacity to at least 300k per year by Q1 2023 in both Texas and Berlin. If they focused on Cybertruck they might produce 20k vehicles by then.
• From a “Tesla Mission” perspective, getting out the most vehicles is good for similar reasons.

When profits align with “The Mission”, Musk’s pet project gets set aside.

 

[DMC-81]

On FSD:
Based on Tesla's confidence that FSD will likely go from beta to production this year, I'm glad that I added it to my reservation when it was still $7K (assuming that the price will be honored).

 

[anionic1]

One choice is to not built it at all, and just say it wasn't feasible to make it affordable. Hope that doesn't happen though.

I never thought a $40,000 model was ever going to happen, and I placed an early order for the TriMotor and was fine with $69,000 price...(even $79,000 with all that it was offering). A couple of months ago they announced they would build a Quad motor, and maybe not the TriMotor. Okay, I will take one at $89,000, if it is delivered in 2023.

Right now Elon is probably thinking this thing is going to have to sell for $125k just to break even. Well Elon, you keep making it crazier and faster and more robust. It’s not a complicated solution. Keep it simple and get it to market. If we wanted a crab crawl four motor for $100k plus we would have picked the hummer. Now we don’t know if it will be here in the next two years and why wait.

 

[Ogre]

Not entirely true on either case. Early on he said it wasn’t coming in 2022 as well.

Don’t know about “Many years”, but it sounds like Q1 2023 is unlikely. New target date (for me) is Christmas 2023. Since the birthday slipped, gonna hold out a a little hope for Christmas.

 

[Tinker71]

The TeslaBot is not using the same resources the Cybertruck is. It is essentially a group of robotics engineers and software people working in a lab versus people building assembly lines.

The Cybertruck is being pushed back to crank out more Model Ys.

At 30% margin on a Y why wouldn't you. There is too much packed into a CT to have that kind of margin. Sad but true.

 

[Throwcomputer]

Expecting sharp decline in CTownersclub activity after this.

I am disappointed, but I will still wait in line as my timeline was always 2024-6 for replacing my current truck.

This just confirms I won't be unexpectedly surprised with a forced purchase or jump out of line earlier than financially ready.

 

[Ogre]

At 30% margin on a Y why wouldn't you. There is too much packed into a CT to have that kind of margin. Sad but true.

Even if the margins on the CT would eventually be the same as the Model Y, it’s cheaper and faster to scale existing products by a large margin.

With 4 Gigapresses dedicated to Model Y production in Austin and ?? In Berlin, it is clear they are swinging for the fences on production here trying to capture as much green field as they can quickly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see vehicles shipped in 2022 break 2 million. Likely 1.3m - 1.5m from existing facilities and another 300k-600k between the new facilities.

 

[Ogre]

Well Rivian’s run rate is apparently about 100/ week right now.

GM’s Hummer run rate seems to be about 1/ month right now.

Where are you in line?

In terms of market share, I don’t think Tesla has too much to worry about in terms of trucks. There is a lot of green field and these guys are moving pretty slowly to grab share.

Update: Rivian is up to 200 trucks/ week!

 

[anionic1]

On FSD:
Based on Tesla's confidence that FSD will likely go from beta to production this year, I'm glad that I added it to my reservation when it was still $7K (assuming that the price will be honored).

I think what will happen and has happened in the past with preorders is that they will say look we aren’t making the model that you selected and you may be waiting forever for that model. We are making a slightly different model so you need to modify your order to the option we do have if you want to buy the truck and by the way since you are modifying your order you need to pay $12k for FSD. I ordered at $7k as well.

 

[anionic1]

Even if the margins on the CT would eventually be the same as the Model Y, it’s cheaper and faster to scale existing products by a large margin.

With 4 Gigapresses dedicated to Model Y production in Austin and ?? In Berlin, it is clear they are swinging for the fences on production here trying to capture as much green field as they can quickly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see vehicles shipped in 2022 break 2 million. Likely 1.3m - 1.5m from existing facilities and another 300k-600k between the new facilities.

It was really disheartening to hear zero excitement about the CT

 

[Ogre]

It was really disheartening to hear zero excitement about the CT

How do you announce that your pet project—your baby—is getting delayed again and act excited?

Musk was talking about driving around Texas in the Cybertruck just yesterday. Not the new Model Y, not the Model S Plaid, the Cybertruck.

And he had to push it back so he could focus on business.

Of course there was no excitement.

 

[Tinker71]

I still have some hope for a couple deliveries in late 2022. Elon likes to under promise and over deliver. 10 months is a long time. If Y demand drops off during the year the priority might change.

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