Will the CyberTruck be Discontinued

[ÆCIII]

Didn't we ride this merry go round recently on the forum?

The OP is quite new to the forum, having joined only recently in Feb 2026, so their internal perspective of the Tesla Community and brand could be seriously lacking.

- ÆCIII

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[EricGregori]

The extrerior metal is what drew me to get the CT. If it didn’t have that I wouldn’t have gotten it.

 

[EricGregori]

I found it interesting that in Q4 2025, 18% of the Cybertruck sales were to SpaceX. 1,279 Cybertrucks in total. Its clear Elon doesnt want it to be a failure, hopefully he has more companies to keep buying them.

People like to quote this like Ford or GM never buy their own trucks. it is interesting because Tesla has a bunch of Ford F150's driving around Tesla Austin so Musk apparently buy F150's to prop up Ford as well.

SpaceX purchased 1,600 Cybertrucks in total.

Lets put that number in context:

Tesla has sold approximately 63,000 to 67,000 Cybertrucks in total since deliveries began in November 2023.
SpaceX bought 1600 trucks, so SpaceX has bought roughly 2% of all Cybertrucks sold.

General Motors' autonomous vehicle subsidiary, Cruise, built a fleet of roughly 1,100 to 1,200 modified autonomous Chevrolet Bolt EVs to power its early robotaxi service.

 

[EricGregori]

If they could get FSD into EUROPE, then I don't think it'll be nearly that big of a problem in the US.

Once Robotaxi's are successfully running around in a few cities, I'm not sure what bureaucratic logic could prevent a normal citizen from doing the same thing, especially in the same geographic area. At least in Florida and Texas that is...

I live in Illinois, I do not expect our government to do anything to help Tesla be successful.

 

[EricGregori]

Exactly, data mining by producing a limited run to generate the missing data needed.

I am an engineer, it is what I would do. Change an input, observe the results.

 

[EricGregori]

I didn’t think of that scenario. However, I still think Tesla will keep the CT for the time being. Even though, the sales are down. Almost to a trickle. There’s like cult following.

A self driving full size SUV for moving cargo has so much more sales potential. The R1S outsells the R1T 2:1, based on this one data point CT sales could double if it was upgraded to a full size SUV. If the design makes sense for cargo as well, the sales potential would be even higher.

 

[gooshjkc]

A self driving full size SUV for moving cargo has so much more sales potential. The R1S outsells the R1T 2:1, based on this one data point CT sales could double if it was upgraded to a full size SUV. If the design makes sense for cargo as well, the sales potential would be even higher.

I have to agree, but I still think they should keep the CT for the time being. Now, having a truck and doing light truck stuff I did appreciate it over a SUV. Things I wouldn’t have done with a SUV.

 

[EricGregori]

My guess is the CT business case requires 100,000 CT's sales per year to generate enough cash flow to keep the truck line operational and interesting to Tesla (Musk). Three ways to get there - get the pricing right, introduce a CT-based SUV, and expand sales outside of US/CAN (I know, they sell to some select markets), but gotta make it available in China and Europe, despite regulatory challenges.

I think the $59K was a test to get the pricing right.
A CT based SUV is the next logical step
Does China/Europe buy full sized trucks?
F150 sales in China were minuscule even before the tarriffs.
In 2023, Ford shipped approximately 5,500 units in total across all its directly imported, U.S.-built nameplates to China, which includes the F-150 Raptor, Bronco, Mustang, and Navigator.
F150 sales in Europe were minuscule even before the tarriffs.
F-150 sales volumes are incredibly small. For example, in Germany—one of the largest import markets in Europe for this segment—only 382 units were newly registered in 2023.

 

[YDR37]

F150 sales in Europe were minuscule even before the tarriffs.
F-150 sales volumes are incredibly small. For example, in Germany—one of the largest import markets in Europe for this segment—only 382 units were newly registered in 2023.

It looks like Ford has given up on selling the F-150 in Germany. It's not currently listed on the ford.de website.

The smaller Ranger pickup is still readily available in Germany, but the Ranger is a global model that is manufactured at plants outside of the US. Apparently European Rangers come from South Africa. Similarly, Ford makes Rangers in Argentina for Latin America, and in Thailand for Asia-Pacific.

So the Ranger can dodge tariffs on US-made vehicles. But Ford has no such flexibility with the F-150, because it is only manufactured in the US. Tesla has the same problem with the Cybertruck.

 

[YDR37]

Tesla has the same problem with the Cybertruck.

Tesla's two US factories (Fremont CA and Austin TX) are actually facing a double whammy from (1) the loss of the federal tax credit in the US, and (2) high tariffs in China, Europe, and Canada on US-made vehicles.

Globally, EV sales are booming. That sounds like good news for Tesla, and in fact it is. In 1Q 2026, Tesla's global deliveries were up by 6.3% over 1Q 2025.

But there's one important market where EV sales are not booming. In the US, EV sales have tanked since October 1, 2025, when the $7,500 federal tax credit disappeared. That sounds like bad news for Tesla, and in fact it is. In 1Q 2026, Tesla's US deliveries were down by 8.4% over 1Q 2025.

So Fremont/Austin are (1) making fewer EVs for the domestic market (because US demand fell after the loss of the tax credit), and they are also (2) making fewer EVs for export (because high tariffs on American-made vehicles make them uncompetitive abroad). So it's a double whammy.

One possible way out: maybe US demand for EVs will start rising again if gasoline prices stay high. Should see some 2Q 2026 numbers in a few weeks.

 

[EricGregori]

Applicable to the discussion.

 

[EricGregori]

Tesla's two US factories (Fremont CA and Austin TX) are actually facing a double whammy from (1) the loss of the federal tax credit in the US, and (2) high tariffs in China, Europe, and Canada on US-made vehicles.

Globally, EV sales are booming. That sounds like good news for Tesla, and in fact it is. In 1Q 2026, Tesla's global deliveries were up by 6% over 1Q 2025.

But there's one important market where EV sales are not booming. In the US, EV sales have tanked since October 1, 2025, when the $7,500 federal tax credit disappeared. That sounds like bad news for Tesla, and in fact it is. In 1Q 2026, Tesla's US deliveries were down by 8.4% over 1Q 2025.

So Fremont/Austin are (1) making fewer EVs for the domestic market (because US demand fell after the loss of the tax credit), and they are also (2) making fewer EVs for export (because high tariffs on American-made vehicles make them uncompetitive abroad). So it's a double whammy.

One possible way out: maybe US demand for EVs will start rising again if gasoline prices stay high. Should see some 2Q 2026 numbers in a few weeks.

Although Tesla US deliveries were down, the Model Y is the 2nd best selling car in America (gas or electric). The Model Y is also the best selling car in Europe. I wonder if the lower cost Model Y is offsetting some of the sales lost due to the $7500 tax credit.

The Tesla Model Y is the best-selling car in California. It dominates the state's auto market by a massive margin, easily outperforming all gas-powered and electric competitors.

Tesla owns the US market. Did Fremont/Austin ever make cars for export (maybe Canada)?

Giga Berlin is currently scaling its Model Y output with a 20% production increase, targeting about 73,000 units per quarter—representing roughly 78% of its stated baseline annual capacity of 375,000+ vehicles.

Tesla’s Gigafactory Shanghai is the company's most productive facility, with an annual manufacturing capacity exceeding 950,000 vehicles. Operating at full capacity, the highly automated plant (95% automation rate) serves as a critical global export hub, producing one vehicle roughly every 30 seconds.

Q1 2026, top-selling passenger cars and SUVs (non-trucks), based on estimates from Cox Automotive and Kelley Blue Book, were:
Honda CR-V: 99,437 units
Tesla Model Y: ~78,591 units
Toyota Camry: 78,255 units

 

[YDR37]

The Tesla Model Y is the best-selling car in California. It dominates the state's auto market by a massive margin, easily outperforming all gas-powered and electric competitors.

The good news is that the Model Y is still selling well in California. The bad news is that the Model 3 and the Cybertruck aren't, and the Model S and Model X have been discontinued. And even the Model Y isn't selling as well as it used to. So overall, Tesla sales in California are falling. 1Q 2026 was down by 24.3% from 1Q 2025.

Tesla used to be the #2 manufacturer in California, behind only Toyota. During 1Q 2026, they were #4, behind Toyota, Honda, and Ford.

Tesla owns the US market.

The good news is that Tesla totally dominates the US EV market. The bad news is that the US EV market is shrinking. In 1Q 2026, Tesla had only 2.8% of the total light vehicle market (ICE+EV) in the US.

Did Fremont/Austin ever make cars for export (maybe Canada)?

Tesla basically kicked off the EV revolution with the Model S and Model X, and all of those were made in Fremont. The S/X were much more popular before the 3/Y became available; they were expensive, but basically the only good EVs on the market. So historically (like 2015-2020), Tesla exported tens of thousands of S/X per year to Europe, Asia, and Canada. Canada also used to get US-made 3/Ys. All of that is gone now.

Giga Berlin is currently scaling its Model Y output with a 20% production increase, targeting about 73,000 units per quarter—representing roughly 78% of its stated baseline annual capacity of 375,000+ vehicles.

Europe is a bright spot for Tesla right now. Rising sales in Europe could help to counterbalance the falling sales in the US.

Tesla’s Gigafactory Shanghai is the company's most productive facility, with an annual manufacturing capacity exceeding 950,000 vehicles. Operating at full capacity, the highly automated plant (95% automation rate) serves as a critical global export hub, producing one vehicle roughly every 30 seconds.

The numbers I have seen suggest that Tesla sales in China are falling due to intense domestic competition, but this is counterbalanced by increasing exports to other Asia-Pacific countries, particularly South Korea.

Overall, there's a good chance that Tesla's global sales will grow in 2026 relative to 2025 (they will probably not reach the peak levels of 2023). But there is also a good chance that most or all of the growth will be in Europe and Asia, with little or no growth in the US. And that is not great for Fremont and Austin. However, Fremont is pivoting to production of Optimus robots, and Austin should follow eventually.

 

[Outdoors]

My thoughts are the CT is around as long as Elon is around. Hard to tell the richest in the world to do what makes sense to the common man. After all they didn't get there by following anyone or anything.

 

[no%X#XMVk65v#cq]

A CT based SUV is the next logical step

It's crazy that Tesla doesn't have an offering in this huge segment. Model X wasn't even really a SUV, closer to a luxury minivan.

But then again they don't see themselves as a car company anymore... so how they make decisions lineup wise I haven't a clue.

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