😱 Tesla working on a CyberSUV?

[YDR37]

they need that expensive CT production line to make them money. CT isn’t doing it (for reasons unbeknownst to me - it’s the best thing ever made), so it’s not unthinkable that they’d go another direction on the same chassis.

According to Tesla, Giga Texas has capacity to make >125,000 Cybertrucks per year, or >62,500 for a half year. For the first half of 2025, Tesla only delivered around 11,000 CTs. The implication is that the CT line only ran at about 20% of capacity in 1H 2025. Maybe even less than that, since the ">" sign means that actual CT production capacity could be even greater than 125,000/year.

So yeah, in theory, Tesla should have both the capacity and the motivation to manufacture a second vehicle on the Cybertruck platform. Not sure how feasible this is in practice though.

Large SUV EVs are doing better than the trucks so maybe they will do it. Rivian R1S outsells the R1T. The Hummer SUV sells ok. I guess if they can do it on the same platform it may happen.

Tesla doesn't have a large SUV. It makes sense.

The Hummer SUV outsells the Hummer pickup by about 2-to-1, and the Rivian R1S outsells the R1T by more than 3-to-1. So yeah, it's realistic to suggest that a large "CyberSUV" could outsell the Cybertruck. Although if Tesla does make a big 3-row SUV, they should actually brand it as the "Cyberban".

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[Cybertruck2024]

According to Tesla, Giga Texas has capacity to make >125,000 Cybertrucks per year, or >62,500 for a half year. For the first half of 2025, Tesla only delivered around 11,000 CTs. The implication is that the CT line only ran at about 20% of capacity in 1H 2025. Maybe even less than that, since the ">" sign means that actual CT production capacity could be even greater than 125,000/year.

So yeah, in theory, Tesla should have both the capacity and the motivation to manufacture a second vehicle on the Cybertruck platform. Not sure how feasible this is in practice though.
The Hummer SUV outsells the Hummer pickup by about 2-to-1, and the Rivian R1S outsells the R1T by more than 3-to-1. So yeah, it's realistic to suggest that a large "CyberSUV" could outsell the Cybertruck. Although if Tesla does make a big 3-row SUV, they should actually brand it as the "Cyberban".

But it is all cost benefit. 2x-3x a small number is still a small number. And when the original number also shrinks because the new model eats into its sales, is it worth it?

How much will it cost to make a CyberSUV, even if 70% of the work is already done because the CT platform? What is the margin on a CT, and if profitable, can that same margin be earned on the CyberSUV? How many years at 8,000-12,000 sales would be needed to recoup the investment?

A few people have said it, but Tesla's vehicles are now largely the profit arm to support Tesla's true future focus. The only way they add a traditional vehicle is if profits will be somewhat immediate and meaningful enough to support their future endeavors. A "Model 2" could potentially be the highest selling car in the world, it makes sense. The CyberSUV makes sense for someone like Ford or GM, but probably not Tesla on their current growth path.

 

[SCTesla]

Elon, despite what many try to say, is not an idiot. He knows that to scale as fast as he wants (which will be fast than they actually can), they need the infrastructure. The infrastructure is almost completely paid for by vehicle sales. Until the program can be self-funding, the sales will be necessary. That tipping point is still a long ways away.



We have the new cheaper model coming out too. They are investing in both still. The drivable will naturally scale back as the fully autonomous scales up... but both are still happening. Plus, there is a ton of overlap between them and it isn't a one or the other situation fully. With steer/throttle/brake by wire, there isn't a huge increase in development to add drivability to platforms. Some additional hardware being paid for by CT and some tuning needed... but at scale, those at tiny costs. The CT is a shining example where they could really remove or add the controls with very little difference. We have actually seen this with some Cybercab prototypes as well where there is a wheel, and we don't know for sure, but alluded to having pedals too as early safety precautions for testing.

What this all really says is with the decoupling of the mechanical controls of steering, braking, and throttle input, it becomes rather trivial to adding or subtracting driving controls. All platforms moving forward will be designed to be autonomous with the the ability to add in driving controls.. until the point where Robotaxi is at the scale needed where customer sales are no longer needed. Those controls will likely be included on any customer sales, but deleted on the Tesla fleet. This provides flexibility to the Robotaxi ramp while still allowing for customer sales.

The cheaper model is just a stripped Model Y. Elon already said the YL (longer MY) may never come to the US.

 

[SCTesla]

But it is all cost benefit. 2x-3x a small number is still a small number. And when the original number also shrinks because the new model eats into its sales, is it worth it?

How much will it cost to make a CyberSUV, even if 70% of the work is already done because the CT platform? What is the margin on a CT, and if profitable, can that same margin be earned on the CyberSUV? How many years at 8,000-12,000 sales would be needed to recoup the investment?

A few people have said it, but Tesla's vehicles are now largely the profit arm to support Tesla's true future focus. The only way they add a traditional vehicle is if profits will be somewhat immediate and meaningful enough to support their future endeavors. A "Model 2" could potentially be the highest selling car in the world, it makes sense. The CyberSUV makes sense for someone like Ford or GM, but probably not Tesla on their current growth path.

I think the shift is has been accelerated by the low demand for all Teslas globally. 2024 was down and 2025 will be down from 2024. In Q1 Tesla would not have been profitable without BEV credits and those are going away.

Tesla is hurrying away from being a car company due to future aspirations and falling demand/profits.

 

[henchman24]

The large SUV outselling the full size pickup really seems to be an EV only thing (as far as we can tell). Rivian and Hummer both have that. But if you got the ICE world, F150 outsells Expedition by a lot and same with Tahoe/Suburban and Silverado. I fall into the camp that a CyberSUV would likely sell better than the Cybertuck, but it is certainly no guarantee.

The cheaper model is just a stripped Model Y. Elon already said the YL (longer MY) may never come to the US.

And the Y is 70+% Model 3. Franz has said new design language is coming on that new model and it seems dimensions are slightly different. He said may not (but did confirm current plans for it), but IMO that is due to the X and Osborne effect. A YL basically kills the X completely and could get some people to wait.

This is no different than how VW treats MEB... which is the same platform for a small hatch, mid-size sedan, mid-size SUV, 3 row midsize SUV... and a van (and cheap to normal to luxury versions of most of those). A number of models off the same platform to spread cost and hit different markets.

 

[YDR37]

A few people have said it, but Tesla's vehicles are now largely the profit arm to support Tesla's true future focus.

Tesla is hurrying away from being a car company due to future aspirations and falling demand/profits.

The end-game scenario that some analysts are kicking around: rather than watch their car sales gradually erode over several years, Tesla could simply sell off their entire vehicle division and the associated manufacturing facilites to a traditional automaker (for some reason, Stellantis is often suggested). Tesla would keep the brand name, FSD, Optimus, batteries, etc.

Potential win for Tesla:
- no further need to think about the dying traditional car business
- huge influx of cash to develop AI and robots
- FSD can be licensed to auto manufacturers, rather than sold to consumers

Potential win for Stellantis (or whomever):
- instantly become a global EV leader
- existing models can be easily rebranded (e.g. Dodge Model Y, Chrysler Model S, CyberRAM)
- vehicle customers alienated by Elon's politics will rush back, since he will be out of the picture, so sales will rise

I doubt that it will happen, but it's not a completely insane scenario. If Elon truly believes that drivable vehicles are on the way out -- and I think that he probably does believe that -- then the way to extract maximum value for Tesla's drivable vehicle business is to sell it off ASAP while it is still worth something.

 

[henchman24]

The end-game scenario that some analysts are kicking around: rather than watch their car sales gradually erode over several years, Tesla could simply sell off their entire vehicle division and the associated manufacturing facilites to a traditional automaker (for some reason, Stellantis is often suggested). Tesla would keep the brand name, FSD, Optimus, batteries, etc.

Potential win for Tesla:
- no further need to think about the dying traditional car business
- huge influx of cash to develop AI and robots
- FSD can be licensed to auto manufacturers, rather than sold to consumers

Potential win for Stellantis (or whomever):
- instantly become a global EV leader
- existing models can be easily rebranded (e.g. Dodge Model Y, Chrysler Model S, CyberRAM)
- vehicle customers alienated by Elon's politics will rush back, since he will be out of the picture, so sales will rise

I doubt that it will happen, but it's not a completely insane scenario.

Given how vertically integrated FSD is to the vehicles, and how it is proven to be vehicle specific (just see how far behind CT is), I can't see Tesla giving up the auto side. Eventually the margins on autonomy will simply allow Tesla to sell vehicles at cost or a few percent to keep the lines going.

Additionally, Elon now has a 20m sales target to reach... zero chance they'd sell off auto before that. Seems liike a large stretch.

 

[YDR37]

Given how vertically integrated FSD is to the vehicles, and how it is proven to be vehicle specific (just see how far behind CT is), I can't see Tesla giving up the auto side.

Elon has repeatedly indicated that Tesla is open to licensing FSD to other manufacturers. This clearly implies that FSD can be integrated with non-Tesla hardware:

Tesla has discussed on several occasions that it is in talks with an automaker about licensing Full Self-Driving, but it has never revealed who. The company first revealed discussions with another automaker in early 2024 when Elon Musk said:

“We’re in conversations with one major automaker regarding licensing FSD. It really just becomes a case of having them use the same cameras and inference computer and licensing our software."

One obvious obstacle to FSD licensing: would other manufacturers be prepared to license an important technology from a direct competitor? That obstacle goes away if Tesla sells off its vehicle division.

 

[henchman24]

Elon has repeatedly indicated that he is open to licensing FSD to other manufacturers. This obviously means that FSD could be integrated with non-Tesla hardware:

Certainly can be done, but he put some conditions on there too. And with that we see how far behind the CT is from the 3/Y right now. So integration isn’t a simple flip of the switch and would take time. With how fast Tesla wants to move, they wouldn’t want to give up their control on the hardware anytime soon.

 

[RVAC]

Logging in after a long hiatus just to wave and say hi

what a neat idea a Cyber based SUV would be, yeah??

Sure would, but not with that swooping rear pillar line!

This render here is perfect:

 

[RedCoast]

Used Grok to make a video of

Sure would, but not with that swooping rear pillar line!

This render here is perfect:

Used Grok to make a short video of this render.

 

[BlueLightning]

I'd rock this CyberSUV!

Tesla needs to do something…

Bloomberg (2025)

Electric pickup truck boom turns out big bust
August 14, 2025 as EV pickup sales in the U.S. dropped by 4% in the first half of 2025, with around 35,000 units sold.

This contrasts sharply with the 1.6 million gas-powered pickups sold during the same period.

The data suggests that automakers may have overestimated customer demand for electric trucks, despite their significant investments…

 

[hemiarch]

Tesla needs to do something…

Bloomberg (2025)

Electric pickup truck boom turns out big bust
August 14, 2025 as EV pickup sales in the U.S. dropped by 4% in the first half of 2025, with around 35,000 units sold.

This contrasts sharply with the 1.6 million gas-powered pickups sold during the same period.

The data suggests that automakers may have overestimated customer demand for electric trucks, despite their significant investments…

So short sighted. It’s the price point. They said the same crap about the S and X. They had to be slapped in the face repeatedly with model 3 sales figures to understand.

 

[YDR37]

Bloomberg (2025)

Electric pickup truck boom turns out big bust
August 14, 2025 as EV pickup sales in the U.S. dropped by 4% in the first half of 2025, with around 35,000 units sold.

This contrasts sharply with the 1.6 million gas-powered pickups sold during the same period.

The data suggests that automakers may have overestimated customer demand for electric trucks, despite their significant investments…

The full article is paywalled, but it basically suggests three reasons why electric pickups have not been very successful in the market, at least so far:

- Price: "EV trucks, while sporting lower emissions, are generally costlier than gasoline-fueled options."

- Range: "The people who buy trucks often use them to haul things, whether it’s a commercial payload or a boat to the lake, and drivers say many electric versions just aren’t up for the task" [due to range limitations].

- Politics: "About two-thirds of full-size-truck buyers lean right politically ... and consumer research shows that Republicans are less interested in EVs than their lefty counterparts."

Conclusion: "In general, electric crossovers, sedans and luxury vehicles have been faster to catch on than their pickup counterparts."

I don't disagree with these points.

 

[YDR37]

Tesla needs to do something…

What can Tesla do?

Suppose, for the sake of argument, that Bloomberg's take is accurate. In theory, there could be ways to address each of Bloomberg's points:

- EV pickups cost too much. So design an EV pickup to be as inexpensive as possible. Price it low, like a Ford Maverick.

- EV pickups have poor range when towing or hauling large loads. So design an EV pickup that won't be used to tow or haul big loads. Keep it small, like a Ford Maverick.

- Full-sized pickup buyers lean right and are less interested in EVs. So design an EV pickup that will appeal to a different set of buyers. Target younger, hipper, more left-leaning, urban/suburban customers. Like Ford does with the Maverick.

In other words, Tesla could develop a small, low-cost EV pickup targeted at the same urban/suburban markets that buy the Model Y and the Model 3 -- and also the Ford Maverick. If Tesla did offer a small, inexpensive EV pickup, it would probably sell better than the Cybertruck (or any other full-sized EV truck).

The problem for Tesla is that Slate -- and probably Ford -- are going to get there faster.

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