123 kWh battery pack on Cybertruck (reported)

[anionic1]

even on your math, that’s a grand total of 23,500 to 33,000 CyberTruck’s a year, and not one Semi or Model Y

if in Q1, 8,000 - 9,000 trucks

so maybe we’re just talking past one-another regarding what ‘constrained’ means

but to be clear, I don’t for a moment intend to suggest batteries are the only constraint to early ramp of Cybertruck.

Tesla isn’t the only company making the 4680. LG and Panasonic are well underway to produce huge volumes of 4680 cells next year.

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[cvalue13]

Tesla isn’t the only company making the 4680. LG and Panasonic are well underway to produce huge volumes of 4680 cells next year.

sure - if they also stick to their timelines, etc., and that'll cross off one of several ramp-limiting hurdles for the CT

i dont want to confuse or suggest that I don't think Tesla will be able to meet the ultimate demand curve for the CT (whatever it is), eventually

only instead that i don't think it reasonable to believe that'll be materially accomplished in the next 12 months

 

[Crissa]

I wouldn’t say zero. Larger pack means ;

• less acceleration for the same power train
• less payload for the same suspension/tires/….
• More cells means greater chance of pack failure. greater cost for Tesla to do warranty replacement and greater cost for owner/insurance company to pay for out of warranty replacement.
• It means higher price or smaller margin.

Larger pack also means you're:

• increasing stopping distance in general,
• increasing the hazards of downhill sections of road,
• increasing the chance of a slide when stopping or turning on wet or icy pavement,
• reducing your efficiency in stop and go traffic,
• reducing your efficiency going up hills.

Bigger battery can get you faster charge rates, but if you use that extra capacity, you just have to charge for longer.

-Crissa

 

[anionic1]

no, we’re all talking in crayon here

other guy was suggesting 4680 ramp will be so sufficient for CT, MY, and Semi, they won’t know what to do with them all

and as evidence, he matched that they currently have enough cells to build *only* 3,000 trucks a month (and zero Y/Semi)

they’ll have to 7X that within the next 18mo, just to have enough cells for the 250K/yr run rate Tesla says is 18mo away

will Tesla do that? Sure, maybe (though I don’t take Tesla’s timing estimates very serious)

but that still doesn’t leave any for MY or Semi, much less the extra cells Tesla ‘won’t know what to do with’

And LG and Panasonic are well underway to start mass producing 4680s next year. I don’t know why that is being left out here. Tesla has made it clear that they will continue to buy as many as they can.

 

[Crissa]

Is Tesla install pull through chargers?

They exist. This isn't a towing thread. Most towing isn't long distance.

-Crissa

 

[cvalue13]

And LG and Panasonic are well underway to start mass producing 4680s next year. I don’t know why that is being left out here. Tesla has made it clear that they will continue to buy as many as they can.

I think people either talk past one-another, or intentionally equivocate on, the relevant timing of the conversation

I for one wouldn’t suggest, and think it this uninterestingly uncontroversial, that eventually 4680’s will be numerous enough to not be a production constraint

This convo kicked off around, but maybe it’s my misunderstanding, the implication that 4680 currently aren’t a constraint or that they would cease being a constraint in the near future

that suggestion seems to entirely unsupported if near future means the next 3-9mo, somewhat unsupported if it means from and after 9mo to say 12-18 months, and “if you say so” if speaking of say 18-24mo

not that it *isnt* true objectively somehow, but instead unsupported and non-obvious as to what supports the view

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