.

[Macgyverfever]

My wife is Australian and HATES America (rofl but loves me so here she is), but in the event we ever need to leave, can a CT be modified by such a dealer?

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[happy intruder]

I think time and pricing will be the key determining factor for drop-outs

 

[anionic1]

And we still pay into social security but I am not betting on that being available when I retire.

 

[happy intruder]

And we still pay into social security but I am not betting on that being available when I retire.

I'm lucky and old enough that I think it will last for me...not sure I will last for the CT though.......birthday morning up in may

 

[Cyberman]

Amazing. At one point, I read the $39,000 price had disappeared from the Tesla site. It's really encouraging to see it's still there in March 2022. Woo-hooo!

 

[charliemagpie]

My wife is Australian and HATES America (rofl but loves me so here she is), but in the event we ever need to leave, can a CT be modified by such a dealer?

No, we can't modify

We just drive them in reverse.

 

[Ogre]

My thought on this and given previous model rollouts is CT is still in a unique situation. It will be 4 years minimum to get the first production unit made (from reveal). Then, how long to complete the reservation line. 3 years, perhaps? A lot happens in life in that long a span. You could die, lose your health, financial change where you can't afford it or make so much more money this truck is no longer a consideration. Or maybe a change of mind or got something else you like better. Im not discounting that new buyers will not jump in line, but out of the 1.3m reservation the say exits, it wouldn't surprise me for 30-40% to drop off. I just cant see most people waiting 5-6 years

EDIT: I had a longer reply but was overly not picky

Alpines comment is likely accurate on timing, unless launch happens on Jan 1st next year most of us will be waiting about 5 years.

A few early orders will be a bit faster as will the most recent.

 

[Crissa]

21 November is .25 of a year from February 20th. The new year is more like 11% of a year from the release date, not 25%.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

21 November is .25 of a year from February 20th. The new year is more like 11% of a year from the release date, not 25%.

-Crissa

I stand corrected. Also did a big edit above.

Even if launch is January 1 only a few of us will get ~4 years deliveries but it climbs quickly.

A really quick launch and ramp up to 500k is about the only way to avoid lots of 5+ year waits.

 

[Crissa]

Also, no matter your reservation number: Paying attention to your email, the release dates, and being willing to take whatever options they're shipping will jump you ahead in the queue. They always end up with units they made but don't match orders, had to go back for scratch and dent refurbishment, or were abandoned in the order process, or straight up they were able to make more of one option set than another.

Whenever that will be.

-Crissa

 

[intimidator]

https://www.tesla.com/support/cybertruck-ordering-faq

On another note, what percentage of reservations do you think will translate to actual truck orders.

QUESTION: On another note, what percentage of reservations do you think will translate to actual truck orders.

# built:

In 2022. None.
In 2023. None, to 50,000
In 2024. Possibly 250,000
In 2025. Possibly 250,000

% wise? If they ever do build the CT, the first models will be Quad only, so how many Tri-Motors will convert to the Quad? 40-45% is my WAG (Wild *** Guess).

If you ordered a single motor, those may never happen. If you ordered a dual motor, you might have to wait until 2025/26.

If you reservation # is about 500,000, see above, you probably have to wait until 2026....and who knows what the price will be then. Inflation can do a major job on prices over the next 3 years.

 

[Ogre]

QUESTION: On another note, what percentage of reservations do you think will translate to actual truck orders.

# built:

In 2022. None.
In 2023. None, to 50,000
In 2024. Possibly 250,000
In 2025. Possibly 250,000

% wise? If they ever do build the CT, the first models will be Quad only, so how many Tri-Motors will convert to the Quad? 40-45% is my WAG (Wild *** Guess).

If you ordered a single motor, those may never happen. If you ordered a dual motor, you might have to wait until 2025/26.

If you reservation # is about 500,000, see above, you probably have to wait until 2026....and who knows what the price will be then. Inflation can do a major job on prices over the next 3 years.

Based on more realistic numbers from recent high volume lines they’ve rolled out.

2023 : 0 - 100k
2024: 200k - 350k
2025: 250k - 400k
2026: 400k - 500k

PS we have no idea when dual motor trucks will start shipping. Considering battery constraints, I’d find it odd for them to start cranking out 100s of thousand of the biggest battery config and nothing else. They want to maximize utilization of those assembly lines and idling lines due to lack of batteries isn’t going to cut it.

 

[RMK!]

Once production is in site, and if the pricing is close to the original numbers (big if), I kind of like the idea of creating an additional deposit (different than the reservation hold) to purge reservation holders who aren't serious.
Spitballing here and obviously this would cause an uproar but it would be an excellent determinant of the true number of committed buyers.

$1,500 seems like a fair number.

 

[Ogre]

Once production is in site, and if the pricing is close to the original numbers (big if), I kind of like the idea of creating an additional deposit (different than the reservation hold) to purge reservation holders who aren't serious.
Spitballing here and obviously this would cause an uproar but it would be an excellent determinant of the true number of committed buyers.

$1,500 seems like a fair number.

Makes a lot more sense to just wait until people are actually ordering their truck to ask for more money. Entirely possible many people will either gain or lose their ability to buy a $60k truck in the 1-3 year window most people will see between start of production and their actual delivery.

 

[Sirfun]

Based on more realistic numbers from recent high volume lines they’ve rolled out.

2023 : 0 - 100k
2024: 200k - 350k
2025: 250k - 400k
2026: 400k - 500k

PS we have no idea when dual motor trucks will start shipping. Considering battery constraints, I’d find it odd for them to start cranking out 100s of thousand of the biggest battery config and nothing else. They want to maximize utilization of those assembly lines and idling lines due to lack of batteries isn’t going to cut it.

You guys guessing on production numbers are missing the most important part of the equation.
DEMAND!!!!
Tesla has stopped giving price estimates because they know the demand is ALREADY beyond their ability to fill reservations in a timely manner. Once the Cybertruck is released, the demand could go through the roof! If that happens, like any company, they have to find a way to get all that MONEY! If the world want's 1 million trucks a year. Tesla will find a way to build them.
Personally, I see a very real possibility of this happening and Tesla having to build over a million Cybertrucks a year by 2026. Think of all the police forces all across the world placing orders. And other commercial customers. The Cybertruck, once it's actually being produced will blow minds!!!

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