.

[Sirfun]

This is a bit of a goalpost shift.

OP said there would not be many takers at $85k. First you called him a troll. Now you seem to be agreeing with that sentiment.

Neither the OP nor myself suggested Tesla would never sell a Cybertruck for $85k. Just that it’s a limited market.


I don’t know what Tesla’s launch strategy is going to be, but I can say for certain that an affordable Cybertruck is going to have a much higher shock and awe value than a high end truck.

Tesla chose to launch their Texas Model Y with a lower end vehicle. Sometimes the launch strategy is more about what pieces they have ready to put to use then what vehicle they want to put on the road.

Whew, OKAY I'll try again, at this point I feel like you made me the bad guy, and I'll attempt to explain the turn of events (from my perspective). Apparently some members didn't like my use of the word trolling. Here's why I used it. Here's the paragraph that did it for me.


This being a pickup, i dont see a big market for a $85k CT4 or plaid. As unique as it may be, most couldn't afford it and many who can couldn't stomach it. What are your thoughts.

Notice at the end is says "What are your thoughts". First off I thought he was trolling because $85K for a Plaid, compared to the market we've seen so far, is lowballing. Then look at the price of the other Tesla Plaid versions of vehicles, model S Plaid $135,990, model X Plaid $138,990. To imply that Teslas brand new badass CT will sell for $85K is LUDICROUS.

Secondly, he says many who can afford it couldn't stomach it. That right there fired me up!

What are social media trolls? They're people who deliberately provoke others online.

In my mind, this post was an attempt to provoke. First off Lowballing the Plaid, and then talking trash about the Cybertruck on the Cybertruck forum.

Yes I agree there will be a limited market for the Plaid Cybertruck (if there isn't, all of us reservation holders are screwed). Who knows where the cliff is that buyers will drop off like crazy. I personally think it's not a good idea to go on here and discuss how much we're willing to pay for a Cybertruck. My saying is prices are based on what people are willing to pay. Big Brother/ Tesla could be watching.

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[Deleted member 4261]

There you go, rub it in how cheap your gas is?

 

[Ogre]

Notice at the end is says "What are your thoughts". First off I thought he was trolling because $85K for a Plaid, compared to the market we've seen so far, is lowballing. Then look at the price of the other Tesla Plaid versions of vehicles, model S Plaid $135,990, model X Plaid $138,990. To imply that Teslas brand new badass CT will sell for $85K is LUDICROUS.

Everyone comes into these discussions with their own preconceived notions and assumptions. It feels like it’s become increasingly difficult to have a conversation about the Cybertruck at this point as everyone assumes different things. In particular about pricing.

The Model S is a $105k car. The Plaid treatment is a $30k upgrade. Roughly a 30% increase.

The base Cybertruck is a $40k vehicle. If you assume the single motor variant is out, it’s a $50k vehicle. Adjust for inflation and we’re around $65k. There is a $40k - 50k difference between the cost of the base Cybertruck and the cost of the base Model S. We’re talking entirely different categories of cars here.

The original concept just had one truck with different batteries and drive trains a huge part of this truck has been affordability from the very start (a point Musk has reiterated). A budget interior with no external badging doesn’t really sit well with the 6 figure car buying crowd. Expectations change at that price level. Does Tesla ship a separate interior or are there other changes going to happen on this Plaid truck? Maybe a wood trim?

This whole fast march towards six figure trucks is just weird to me.

 

[SparkChaser]

All of the pontification on price is just wind. Until Tesla says $XXX is the cost of each trim level I find all of this exhausting.
Oger nails it.

 

[cybguy]

So let's assume that in order to easily afford the CT4, someone will need to be at least a millionaire.

Turns out that there are currently (well 2020 statistics) 20.27 millionaires in the US.

Of those millionaires, the total wealth distribution is:

Distribution	Wealth	~ Population
84%	$1m - $2.5m	17,026,800
13%	$2.5m-$4m	2,635,100
3%	$4m-$5m	608,100
4%	$5m-$10m	810,800
1%	$10m-$25m	202,700
0.1%	$25m-$50m	20,270
0.03%	$50m-$100m	6,081
0.02%	$100m-$500m	4,054
0.01%	$500m and up	2,027

So let's just be even more selective and remove the people who have a net worth less than $2.5m. That leaves us with a population of 4,289,132 people in the US worth over $2.5m. Do you think there are maybe 25% (so 1,072,283) of them that might want a CT4? Or that might have someone in their sphere of influence (kids, mistresses, boy-toy, parent, etc) who might be getting a CT4 as a present?

Let's say it's not 25%. Instead, maybe only 10% (so 428,913). Well, beyond the general population, there are also corporations. I know there is the mantra that "corporations are people" but they are not part of the above statistics.

So if there are about 400k people who can easily (and might actually) buy a CT4, what do you think the odds are that there are enough corporations out there to take up another 600k CT4's? I don't have stats for that but I'm guessing that a good number could be taken up here.

Now, what this does not take into account, is the number of people worth between $1m and $2.5m who will "stretch" to buy a CT4. If just over 1% of the 17m people here do that we have another 200k CT4's sold.

Given all that, I've made some guesses about the penetration rates. You may not agree with my guess. You might think my percentages are a bit high. OK. But I would counter with the fact that the world has never seen a vehicle like the CT. Given the security cocooning that has been happening over time in the US I'd argue that a whole new group of buyers could be found in the people who want better security that only a CT can provide. If you want to think of the CT as an armored truck, it is by far the cheapest and most drivable armored truck the world has ever seen. So looking at it from that standpoint, the CT4 is downright cheap.

But hey, this is all just prognostication. Instead of worrying about it, let's just hang out and watch things play out. In time we will see how popular the CT4 actually turns out to be.

Wealthy people don't buy a lot of trucks. Of my 4 close friends and family worth over $10 million, none has every own a truck in the past 30 years. Until 3 years ago I lived in a town that was in the top 10 by zip code for income by IRS returns. I knew exactly 3 people that had trucks in town. All 3 used their truck as part of their business and only 1 every drove it for any other use. Far more residents drove minivans equivalents including Tesla Model X than every drove a truck in town.

 

[FutureBoy]

Wealthy people don't buy a lot of trucks. Of my 4 close friends and family worth over $10 million, none has every own a truck in the past 30 years. Until 3 years ago I lived in a town that was in the top 10 by zip code for income by IRS returns. I knew exactly 3 people that had trucks in town. All 3 used their truck as part of their business and only 1 every drove it for any other use. Far more residents drove minivans equivalents including Tesla Model X than every drove a truck in town.

I see your anecdotal evidence and would suggest that my anecdotal evidence contradicts yours. So we will just have to wait and see. The data I gave above was just to show the potential for there to be a large number of CT4 sales. Until they start selling we won’t know if the CT4 is a hotcake or not.

As a vehicle, it has enough uniquely distinguishing characteristics that I don’t see traditional truck statistics as being a sure fire guidance on how the CT will do in the marketplace.

 

[Crissa]

So let's assume that in order to easily afford the CT4, someone will need to be at least a millionaire.

Turns out that there are currently (well 2020 statistics) 20.27 millionaires in the US.

Of those millionaires, the total wealth distribution is:

Distribution	Wealth	~ Population
84%	$1m - $2.5m	17,026,800
13%	$2.5m-$4m	2,635,100
3%	$4m-$5m	608,100
4%	$5m-$10m	810,800
1%	$10m-$25m	202,700
0.1%	$25m-$50m	20,270
0.03%	$50m-$100m	6,081
0.02%	$100m-$500m	4,054
0.01%	$500m and up	2,027

Your numbers are a little off, being based upon net worth instead of the more common income which is bandied about. Most of those millionaires are so because they own a house they occupy and would have to replace.

Another way to look at it is those millionaires would be shifting their illiquid capital by 5-10% to get a $100k truck. That truck would cost 2/3rds of my house!

-Crissa

 

[FutureBoy]

Most of those millionaires are so because they own a house they occupy and would have to replace.

That’s why I left out those who are below 2.5 million.

 

[Crissa]

That’s why I left out those who are below 2.5 million.

Alas, net worth also includes defined contribution retirement accounts which is misleading as well in those bounds.

-Crissa

 

[CompMaster]

With F150 or other companies. If/When looking at stats, make sure you are looking at regular sales and not fleet or corp...

 

[Ogre]

I just want to point out that a lot of high net worth individuals got that way because they don’t spend $85k on things like cars or trucks.

Net worth is a truly horrible indicator of people’s desire or even capability to buy a supertruck.

I’m certainly not pulling $85k out of my IRA or taking a loan out on my home in order to buy a truck. I seriously doubt many people will. People who do that don’t have high net worths.

 

[Sirfun]

That is the worst hybrid on the market with regards to fuel consumption bar none.

You get 21 miles of pure electric with a full charge if you baby it. Then in normal hybrid mode it gets a retardedly low 20mpg combined city/hwy!

In hybrid mode, it gets worse mileage than a regular crewcab f150. The regular non hybrid v8 rubicon gets 14mpg so i guess compared to that its something.

Charge it every night and keep to short drives is only way to have some semblance of good mpg.

Wow, you're right that's horrible. My Pacifica PHEV does WAY better than that. It seems like the RAV4 PHEV would be a much better choice in that segment of vehicles.

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