.

[Ogre]

F150 xlt 320mi is $80974.

$73474 after 7500 rebate if you qualify

If it’s over $80k… doesn’t qualify for the rebate after Jan 1st!!

Ford has apparently pushed all of their trucks with a useful cross country range out of rebate territory.

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[Ogre]

Ford says the truck qualifies. Its the old ev credit, not what just passed.

I was thinking more about what would be in place when the Cybertruck comes out.

 

[anionic1]

I said “their margins will be fine with rational inflation adjustments”.

What I’m suggesting is people are going way beyond rational inflation adjustments. We haven’t seen 50% inflation, yet here we’re talking about 50% price increases on the Cybertruck. That is not rational inflation adjustment, that’s fear driven hyperbole.

The Cybertruck was the better value at launch, it was the better value when Ford launched the F150. If Tesla increases prices on par with what competitors have, it will remain the better value. Tesla has massive pricing advantage on their batteries. They also have a significantly more efficient design which will reduce the battery size for the same range.

This ultimately boils down to the idea that you think Tesla priced the Cybertruck poorly to begin with.

Their pricing was a projection. Obviously it was wrong. I never said 50% increase. I think they will offer a dual motor 300 mi between $65k-70k. They will probably offer a dual motor long range option between $80k-$85k. My guess is the quad motor long range will be around $100k. The dual motor model x with much less range is $120k. I am definitely not getting into an engineering debate here, but its just not logical to think that a quad motor 500 mi. stainless steel cybertruck is going to stay anywhere near $69k.

 

[anionic1]

Ford says the truck qualifies. Its the old ev credit, not what just passed.

I just got off the phone with Rivian and it seems like the current belief is that in general it doesn't matter what the purchase price is until the treasury sets those limits and there is a clause in the bill that will grandfather in previous orders regardless of purchase price as long as there was a binding purchase agreement. I didnt read the bill myself, but i read Electreks post yesterday and that seems like the deal. Rivian is saying they have about 24 hours to get the purchase agreements settled. So it could be that Ford is assuming the same thing for now.

 

[Ogre]

Their pricing was a projection. Obviously it was wrong. I never said 50% increase. I think they will offer a dual motor 300 mi between $65k-70k (30%-40% increase). They will probably offer a dual motor long range option between $80k-$85k (15%-20% increase w/ feature cut). My guess is the quad motor long range will be around $100k (45% increase). The dual motor model x with much less range is $120k. I am definitely not getting into an engineering debate here, but its just not logical to think that a quad motor 500 mi. stainless steel cybertruck is going to stay anywhere near $69k.

Ford, Rivian, and GM made 6%-18% adjustments for inflation depending on the model. But Tesla is is going to make 30% - 45% increases or make 20% increases with feature cuts?

Clearly inflation wasn’t expected, but you are double that in most cases.




Also… you assume when I say “Reasonable inflation adjustments” that I mean $0?

 

[Throwcomputer]

Ford, Rivian, and GM made 6%-18% adjustments for inflation depending on the model. But Tesla is is going to make 30% - 45% increases or make 20% increases with feature cuts?

Clearly inflation wasn’t expected, but you are double that in most cases.




Also… you assume when I say “Reasonable inflation adjustments” that I mean $0?

can you imagine the margins on those sales! They be going from 20-30% margins to 60-70% margins! That's approaching casino territory. ha

 

[SpaceYooper]

These pricing conversations sure are fun.
I'm just going to keep reposting my post from several months ago (with some minor edits because I'm not talking directly at one person now. I also made some edits suggested by Grammarly and added info that the original expected release for the AWD CTs wasn't until 2022).

The vast majority is just trying to be realistic about pricing.

Please, let's do that.

I'm going to continue to push back against illogical pricing speculation like...the single motor was $39k w/250+mi range, the Dual $49k w/350+mi range, the Tri $69k w/500+mi range so the quad motor CT with no stated expected increase in range over 500 miles must be over the six $ figure mark. How does that make sense?

Even if you include a 20% material inflation cost the logic does not follow that price guess. I'll explain why as opposed to just posting random crap. It doesn't make sense to me because I assume material costs make up about 50% of the manufacturing cost. So a 20% material cost increase equals about a 10% increase to build the truck. As a publicly traded company, we can look up Tesla's gross profits per vehicle. They average about 30%. So if they were willing to sell the CTs for $39.9k, $49.9k, $69.9k and I assume still get their avg 30% profit, then the vehicles were costing them about $28k, $35k, and $49k to manufacture. (I believe this logic is a little flawed because typically higher priced vehicles have higher profit margins...so the CT3 is probably less than $49k to manufacture.). Taking into account the 10% additional costs due to the stated 20% increase in material costs, the new inflation-adjusted cost to manufacture would be about $31k, $39k, and $54k. Add their 30% profit margin to that and you get $40.3k, $50.7k, and $70.2k. AND THIS STILL ASSUMES THEY DID NOT ACCOUNT FOR ANY INFLATION AT ALL WHEN THEY RELEASED THE PRICING IN 2019, with an expected delivery of 2022 for the AWD models, which I believe they would have. It also assumes they intended on making a profit with the CTs which I think is a fair assumption. But let's assume 0 profit margin and the cost to manufacture was the pricing they released. Again taking into account the 10% additional costs due to the stated 20% increase in material costs, the new inflation adjusted pricing would be about $44k, $55k and $77k for the origninal lineup that was released. An increase of $5k, $6k and $7k respectively AGAIN, THIS STILL ASSUMES THEY DID NOT ACCOUNT FOR ANY INFLATION AT ALL WHEN THEY RELEASED THE PRICING IN 2019.

Now we have to add another motor and 4W steering to the $77k CT3 which is our worst-case scenario that includes some very bad assumptions. The CT1 to CT2 pricing was a $10k difference but also included 100 more miles of range. CT2 to CT3 was a $20k difference but it added another 150 miles of range. I also assume some of this $20k vs $10k price increase for the CT3 was because the CT3 was their high-end model at the time (maybe more frills, signature stitching, maybe 4W steer was already planned for the CT3...I don't know, neither do you.). Notice each motor variant included more range. Given this information, the logic would follow that a CT4 would have more range, but we've heard nothing from Tesla about more than 500 miles of range. So how much more can they charge for a vehicle that gets equal range, but now has 4 motors and 4W steering? Was the intent for the tri-motor to have 4W steering for $69k? We don't know. If the CT3 is still available and does have 4W steering and the CT4 does not have more than 500 miles of range then we're basically getting the same truck, but one has 4 motors and one has 3. Likely the CT4 is also quicker, and has more HP, towing, and maybe additional payload capacity (Ludicrous mode was a $10k upgrade from Tesla). This does not come close to supporting a $100+k price being suggested. If the CT3 does not have 4W steering, and 4W steering is only available in the quad motor variant then you are saying that feature is worth somewhere between $23k to $30+k (still assuming the 500-mile range). I don't think that 1 feature is worth 1/4 - 1/3 the price of the vehicle.

I know someone is going to post an opinion that the CT1 and CT3 don't exist anymore. That has not been verified, but even if true we can still follow a logical trail based on what we knew at the time. I think it's bat shit crazy to think Tesla released pricing for a truck with 0, nada, zilch, thoughts about any possible inflation between 2019 and 2022 when they stated the AWD variants would be released. And beyond that, if I was releasing pricing for something 3 years in the future, not only would I think about inflation, I would add in some cushion for some unknown variables. THEY DIDN'T EVEN BREAK GROUND ON THEIR FACTORY YET. That didn't happen until the next summer.

Don't you think they thought a little bit about what some safe pricing might be if they were going to take that risk? Even if they couldn't predict the pandemic, chip, and transportation crises, do you not think they had some level of inflation & cushion beyond inflation built in? Were they just taking the "hold my beer and watch this" approach? I think that is pretty unlikely. Elon said there would be some change to the pricing. We don't know what that means yet. But it certainly does not have to mean 10s of thousands of dollars of increases.

 

[anionic1]

These pricing conversations sure are fun.
I'm just going to keep reposting my post from several months ago (with some minor edits because I'm not talking directly at one person now. I also made some edits suggested by Grammarly and added info that the original expected release for the AWD CTs wasn't until 2022).



Please, let's do that.



I know someone is going to post an opinion that the CT1 and CT3 don't exist anymore. That has not been verified, but even if true we can still follow a logical trail based on what we knew at the time. I think it's bat shit crazy to think Tesla released pricing for a truck with 0, nada, zilch, thoughts about any possible inflation between 2019 and 2022 when they stated the AWD variants would be released. And beyond that, if I was releasing pricing for something 3 years in the future, not only would I think about inflation, I would add in some cushion for some unknown variables. THEY DIDN'T EVEN BREAK GROUND ON THEIR FACTORY YET. That didn't happen until the next summer.

Don't you think they thought a little bit about what some safe pricing might be if they were going to take that risk? Even if they couldn't predict the pandemic, chip, and transportation crises, do you not think they had some level of inflation & cushion beyond inflation built in? Were they just taking the "hold my beer and watch this" approach? I think that is pretty unlikely. Elon said there would be some change to the pricing. We don't know what that means yet. But it certainly does not have to mean 10s of thousands of dollars of increases.

The CT1 and CT3 don't exist anymore.

 

[Ogre]

The CT1 and CT3 don't exist anymore.

When people insist on posting assumptions and speculation as fact I feel compelled to point it out.

Solid chance you are right. But it is speculation.

 

[anionic1]

When people insist on posting assumptions and speculation as fact I feel compelled to point it out.

Solid chance you are right. But it is speculation.

Isn't this literally what this post is about. Speculating on cost and demand. If speculating is a problem they should moderate speculating threads better.

 

[charliemagpie]

On the money. For all the reason's Spaceyooper pointed out.

There will be increase, but it will be relative, and will still leave a smile on our faces.

It will still be in the wow area. Tesla knows its costings. Otherwise, it only points to greed.

Golly Gee... 1 million people are excited..
Let's raise prices though the roof and let 1 million people get angry and cancel their orders !!! Because we are dumb and didn't realize upsetting 1 million people is a bad thing.

 

[JBee]

There is no CT2 dual motor 4WD either anymore.

All CTs will have 4WS and quad motors with 4WD. Will start at $65k with short range pack, and have LR and a software Performance option.

Motors are not the expensive bit in manufacturing and assembly. Batteries and different front and rear assemblies are.

In saying that we might see a dual motor, but it will be rear wheel drive only.

(PS I can give you the technical reason if you want, but know that Tesla is not in any way cash constrained and can afford any expansion they choose, but they are intentionally slowing down because suppliers can't get them the gear they need, hence why they are burning cash atm at their half empty GFs)

 

[CyberBC]

Yes I'm counting on the Rivian effect. Don't piss us off with the price rises. If it is one cent over the cpi change watch out.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

With both your logic, Tesla would need to decide to voluntarily reduce their profit margin and price the CT well below their competitors with similar specs. They aren't going to do that. Very few companies, regardless of their mission statement, will lower profit if they can get it. Most, including Tesla, will say that they need to keep their profit high to continue to grow and fund their mission statements future. Also, Elon has made it very clear that it will be a significant challenge to make the CT affordable. I buy hundreds of millions a year in construction. Cost are softening or at least the crazy escalation has slowed way down. So the CT fabrication will probably come at a good time if overly zealous world leaders can manage to not start another world war.

Tesla has a very high profit margin and the OEMs (and Rivian and Lucid) appear to be losing money on each vehicle. Tesla can reduce their profit margin a bit and still be really competitive with the competition, make lots of money, and deliver an insanely functional truck. All Elon said is that they cannot keep the prices the same with inflation and supply-chain issues as they have been for the past 2 years.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Their pricing was a projection. Obviously it was wrong. I never said 50% increase. I think they will offer a dual motor 300 mi between $65k-70k. They will probably offer a dual motor long range option between $80k-$85k. My guess is the quad motor long range will be around $100k. The dual motor model x with much less range is $120k. I am definitely not getting into an engineering debate here, but its just not logical to think that a quad motor 500 mi. stainless steel cybertruck is going to stay anywhere near $69k.

But you are getting into a debate and that is your intention. You have a position and you have expressed it here. The Now You Know guys extrapolated the inflation-based Model Y prices and applied that 25% to the original CT prices. It was a simple and limited evaluation but they came up with a Tri-Motor price of about $89K. Adding the 4th motor may in fact add cost but may also reduce manufacturing complexity so it is at least possible that price changes could be based solely on inflation. We simply do not know…and that is ‘my’ position FWIW.

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