Article: Tesla’s Cybertruck delay may have been caused by design finalization

[Ogre]

5. 9 months later showcase a even bigger and better 6 motor version. Yes you heard it right, and first right here!! 2 would be used as rocket thrusters to better assist red light traffic, or even levitate over short canyons

This explains it. There was a miss-translation.

The original didn't say "The Cybertruck is still undergoing many design finalizations"... it said ""The Cybertruck is still undergoing many design levitations".

Tesla has so far been able to launch vehicles in a completely improbable way. Look at all the marketing spin Rivian puts on everything. Ford uses a fair amount of the sham-wow too for the F150.

Tesla just dumps this the Cybertruck out there and relies on the absolute weirdness and crazy specs to generate buzz. Eventually, they will need to spend on advertising. In China they have to because they have competition over there.

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[firsttruck]

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Model Y was delivered early.

Cybertruck was never predicted to be in production in 2020 or even mid 2021. The earliest promise was late 2021. It is now only August 2021 so technically Cybertruck is not even late yet.

The original predicted dates were made before the covid pandemic & now the electronic chip shortage.

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Tesla updates Cybertruck production timeline after strong pre-orders
Fred Lambert
Dec. 6th 2019
https://electrek.co/2019/12/06/tesla-cybertruck-production-timeline-update-orders/

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After receiving this new information, Tesla has updated its timeline to production for the different versions of the Cybertruck, according to its pre-order page.

Tesla wrote about each model on that page:

Single Motor RWD: “Fully refundable. You will be able to complete your configuration as production nears in late 2021. Single Motor RWD production is expected to begin in late 2022.”
Dual Motor AWD: “Fully refundable. You will be able to complete your configuration as production nears in late 2021. Dual Motor AWD production is expected in late 2021.”
Tri Motor AWD: “Fully refundable. You will be able to complete your configuration as production nears in late 2021. Tri Motor AWD production is expected in late 2021.”

The automaker appears to have accelerated the timeline for the Cybertruck Tri Motor and delayed the Single Motor version to late 2022.

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Tesla’s Cybertruck is available for preorder with a $100 deposit
Production doesn’t start until late 2021
By Andrew J. Hawkins@andyjayhawk Nov 22, 2019
https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/22...o-buy-online-price-date-electric-truck-pickup

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Tesla Cybertruck: The Future of Trucks? We’re Not Sure But We Like It
Alvin Reyes
22 nov. 2019
https://www.automoblog.net/tesla-cybertruck-overview/

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When Will The Tesla Cybertruck Be Available?
Tesla is currently accepting reservations for the Cybertruck, with production starting in late 2021. The tri-motor, all-wheel drive Cybertruck arrives near the end of 2022.


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[Ogre]

I hope by now everyone understands that Tesla's product production estimates are subject to uncertainty.

Tesla launches product based on technology which is still in their labs. They launch products when they don't have the production lines built. They've gotten better at taking this into account, but the cost of delivering next year's technology this year is fraught with uncertainty.

This isn't just a Tesla thing. Ford launched their Mach E last year and while they got it out the door on time, they've had a hell of a time getting product out the door in a timely fashion.

The only way around this is to not buy Tesla products unless they are being actively manufactured. Of course when they start manufacturing and they have 3+ years worth of pre-orders, you are not getting the goods until the technology is mature. For a lot of people, that's the best way to go.

 

[HaulingAss]

While there are a number of good theories here, I think the 4 wheel steering is something that probably was in the design as a feature they were holding back telling us about for some time. With all the reservations they had no reason to add it to compete with Rivian and Hummer. Cybertruck was already going to grab a huge portion of the electric truck market. I am going to bet that they have been playing with this idea for a long time and it was in the engineering design that they announced was done months ago.

I don't think Elon makes any decisions with regard to competing with the Rivian or Hummer which will both will sell as many as are made and that will be almost completely irrelevant to Cybertruck sales. Elon is thinking big and he knows his competition is gas trucks and full-sized gas SUV's. That's a much bigger market to conquer and the Rivian and the Hummer will help Tesla conquer those markets but their contribution will so minor as to be almost entirely inconsequential. There is very little doubt about this.

The mainstream media and even many auto analysts and journalists make the same mistake. They think Tesla's competition are other EV's but EV's only comprise around 2.5% of the US market, the 97.5% of the market that is ICE is ripe for the taking. Tesla's are better than their comparable ICE counterparts in almost every way and are more desirable in a world that is beginning to realize we can't keep doing things the same way. Tesla could increase production and sales twenty-fold and they would still have 60% of the market left to conquer.

On the last earnings call it was made clear that Cybertruck production will follow the ramp of Model Y in Texas. Tesla has already ramped the Model Y on two different continents so the speed of the ramp in Texas will be dependent upon how many manufacturing innovations Tesla is incorporating in the new lines and how difficult they are to implement. Tesla is constantly improving production on each new line to increase consistency and lower the cost of production. My hope is it goes really smoothly and the engineers are freed to work on Cybertruck production in December. In the best case scenario, we might get a few early production test trucks in January. That would mean they could ramp to 100's per day by April or May but that's about the best I'm hoping for. I preparing for the timeline to be 4-5 months behind that because I don't like to be disappointed. It's a huge job even when you have some of the brightest minds and as much experience as Tesla has. It's not as simple or easy as it seems and it takes a lot of dedicated and talented people to make it happen.

Otherwise you end up like Nikola who basically makes nothing. It will be interesting to watch the speed of ramp of a number of other new manufacturers like Lucid with their Air Sedan (scheduled for release this fall), the two Rivian vehicles (I believe scheduled beginning in 2022) and even the electric offerings of Ford and GM (both scheduled for 2022). When comparing the speed of ramps it makes sense to compare EV to EV. When comparing market competition, the market is not EV/ICE because EV's are designed to displace ICE sales - they do the same job which is just another way of saying they compete against each other.

The takeaway here is, if you hear someone say "Tesla's competition is coming" just tell them the competition has been here all along, it's called ICE vehicles and Tesla has been crushing it. They sell every car they can make and would sell a lot more if they could increase production more quickly. But they are already growing at 50%-80% compounded every year.

 

[Ogre]

The takeaway here is, if you hear someone say "Tesla's competition is coming" just tell them the competition has been here all along, it's called ICE vehicles and Tesla has been crushing it. They sell every car they can make and would sell a lot more if they could increase production more quickly. But they are already growing at 50%-80% compounded every year.

This is exactly right.

What we're seeing is a reboot of the market. Think of smartphones. Back in 2007, Apple was nobody in phones, Nokia and a few others owned the market. That is the sort of things we're going through with automobiles right now.

Everyone assumes GM/ Ford/ VW/ Stellantis will be there in the end of this thing, but it is by no means assured. Everyone assumed Nokia was in the smartphone game for the long haul, but they aren't even in smartphones anymore.

The is where I'll diverge from your opinion a bit. As you suggest, the EV market is 3% of the auto market and Tesla/ Rivian sales are coming out of that market. But staking out territory now may affect market share for decades to come. So it is less a fight where they are necessarily slogging it out between each other and more like a race where companies need to scale fast and serve the demand as quickly as possible. The Cybertruck is a big part of that. It's a land grab.

I think Ford sees this. It's why they priced the base F150 so aggressively.

 

[HaulingAss]

This is exactly right.

What we're seeing is a reboot of the market. Think of smartphones. Back in 2007, Apple was nobody in phones, Nokia and a few others owned the market. That is the sort of things we're going through with automobiles right now.

Everyone assumes GM/ Ford/ VW/ Stellantis will be there in the end of this thing, but it is by no means assured. Everyone assumed Nokia was in the smartphone game for the long haul, but they aren't even in smartphones anymore.

The is where I'll diverge from your opinion a bit. As you suggest, the EV market is 3% of the auto market and Tesla/ Rivian sales are coming out of that market. But staking out territory now may affect market share for decades to come. So it is less a fight where they are necessarily slogging it out between each other and more like a race where companies need to scale fast and serve the demand as quickly as possible. The Cybertruck is a big part of that. It's a land grab.

I think Ford sees this. It's why they priced the base F150 so aggressively.

Well, yeah. Any EV truck manufacturer who can demonstrate the ability to produce in high volume early will obviously have a better chance going forward. But what we are going to see is Tesla just continuing to ramp production and add production lines so production will continue to scale and grow. While Ford, GM and Rivian are going to struggle to add new capacity and their monthly output will flatline very early in the game. It's hard to WANT to make unprofitable trucks in high volume, especially when they steal sales from your profitable gas trucks. The result will be that Tesla is making two to three times the COMBINED EV truck output of ALL other manufacturers by the end of 2024, maybe even more if Rivian and GMC totally fail to get to meaningful volumes.

You mention that Ford aggressively priced their base model F-150 to sell it in high volumes as part of the "land grab". I totally don't see it like that at all. The base model will be their lowest selling model of all the Lightning variants and it will be the last to market. This is because, at the announced price, they can't afford to sell many of them. They will be real "stripper" models and sell mostly to corporations as fleet trucks for those who want to "go green". They won't have the range to be a serious on-the-road truck, they will be used to run around locally, some will be dedicated to plant facilities and grounds. They might be able to sell more of them but they will refuse to produce more than a trickle.

The real reason they priced it so aggressively is to create the illusion that the Ford Lightning will be price competitive with the Cybertruck. It's all about creating that narrative. And to be completely fair, the Cybertruck base model will likely be delayed for perhaps years while Tesla fills demand and grows production of the more profitable versions. By 2026 I predict Cybertruck volumes will be 10X all the rest combined, maybe more. The legacy makers are already scheming how they can extend ICE sales further into the future. They make an impressive portion of their profits selling replacement parts.

 

[rr6013]

Well, yeah. Any EV truck manufacturer who can demonstrate the ability to produce in high volume early will obviously have a better chance going forward. But what we are going to see is Tesla just continuing to ramp production and add production lines so production will continue to scale and grow. While Ford, GM and Rivian are going to struggle to add new capacity and their monthly output will flatline very early in the game. It's hard to WANT to make unprofitable trucks in high volume, especially when they steal sales from your profitable gas trucks. The result will be that Tesla is making two to three times the COMBINED EV truck output of ALL other manufacturers by the end of 2024, maybe even more if Rivian and GMC totally fail to get to meaningful volumes.

You mention that Ford aggressively priced their base model F-150 to sell it in high volumes as part of the "land grab". I totally don't see it like that at all. The base model will be their lowest selling model of all the Lightning variants and it will be the last to market. This is because, at the announced price, they can't afford to sell many of them. They will be real "stripper" models and sell mostly to corporations as fleet trucks for those who want to "go green". They won't have the range to be a serious on-the-road truck, they will be used to run around locally, some will be dedicated to plant facilities and grounds. They might be able to sell more of them but they will refuse to produce more than a trickle.

The real reason they priced it so aggressively is to create the illusion that the Ford Lightning will be price competitive with the Cybertruck. It's all about creating that narrative. And to be completely fair, the Cybertruck base model will likely be delayed for perhaps years while Tesla fills demand and grows production of the more profitable versions. By 2026 I predict Cybertruck volumes will be 10X all the rest combined, maybe more. The legacy makers are already scheming how they can extend ICE sales further into the future. They make an impressive portion of their profits selling replacement parts.

Hear. Hear!(clanking sound of last bells)

Hydrogen coal study
Toyota‘s Hydrogen strategy took a head-on collision with science finding coal emits less CO2 than H. Mfgrs platforming atop last century architectures, powering off hybrid ICE applying bolt-on electrifications are really digging own graves. Score Tesla!

You are correct, Tesla’s GigaMACHINERY is going to chew them up and spit them on the ash heap. Competing at scale is a bitch slap. Tesla point after kick!

Stellantis strikes my cortical machinery as the underdog with the right market mix, the intelligence and most grit to move into survivor category.
Chinese mfgrs(NIO,BYD, LI Auto, BAIDU, BAIC, etc…) are the local street fight to watch for an emerging global champion. China may merge or combine them to challenge Tesla’s labor cost if Elon’s machine doesn’t eat them first.
Japanese automakers(Toyota, Subaru, Nissan, etc…) are first order miniaturization experts who have competition from Korean, Taiwan and German brands in fit and trim perfection. So Tesla’s minimalist simplistic engineering first strategy leaves this group to itself. Something could really happen not yet envisioned from this category.

Lastly, in the unthinkable category SAAB may reincarnate. As the growing need for innovation, execution and thinking outside the box becomes sought after DNA, Scandinavian brands could muster to the electrification call. Even Jaguar has brand and history on its side to mount a resurgence in the face of war!

BEV Industry take on how it could emerge every mfgr on the leftside of “BEV Industry” IDK…

 

[Ogre]

@HaulingAss

Almost totally agree. Ford has said they are not going to limit production to top end trucks on their initial run. We'll soon how this pans out. Most likely consumers will end up paying $60k+ to get a truck competitive with the AWD Cybertruck.

Related, I was poking through the news and I saw that Ford's investment in Electric is $22b. Not a new number, but it jiggled a circuit in my head...

How much does Tesla have invested in EV development?

Well... 100%, or $700 Billion dollars. Subtract some percentage for home solar and storage. Subtract quite a bit for having to build out infrastructure Ford/ GM owns...

Even so, no matter how you slice it, the end result is Tesla's investment in EV is in the hundreds of billions.

Ford -> $22 billion
GM -> $30 billionish
Stellantis -> $30 billionish

Talk about bringing a knife to a gun fight.

 

[Ogre]

Stellantis strikes my cortical machinery as the underdog with the right market mix, the intelligence and most grit to move into survivor category.

Maybe.

Just a couple years ago the CEO of Stellantis said he didn't want people buying the Fiat EV because they lost money on it. That, plus their super late entry into the EV market, the funny dog-and-pony roll-out of their EV commitment, and the relatively modest investment in EV tech, seems to me Stellantis is doing the absolute minimum they can get away with in order to be compliant with regulations.

Ford is weirdly (weird for me anyhow) the most interesting alternative out there. The Mach E is a solid entry into the EV space. It's not Tesla good, but better than most everything else out there. GM, Nissan, VW, Audi, BMW, etc have been in this for 5-10+ years and haven't produced anything as good. That says a lot.

 

[HaulingAss]

@HaulingAss

Almost totally agree. Ford has said they are not going to limit production to top end trucks on their initial run. We'll soon how this pans out. Most likely consumers will end up paying $60k+ to get a truck competitive with the AWD Cybertruck.

Related, I was poking through the news and I saw that Ford's investment in Electric is $22b. Not a new number, but it jiggled a circuit in my head...

How much does Tesla have invested in EV development?

Well... 100%, or $700 Billion dollars. Subtract some percentage for home solar and storage. Subtract quite a bit for having to build out infrastructure Ford/ GM owns...

Even so, no matter how you slice it, the end result is Tesla's investment in EV is in the hundreds of billions.

Ford -> $22 billion
GM -> $30 billionish
Stellantis -> $30 billionish

Talk about bringing a knife to a gun fight.

I agree, it will only be $60K+ Lightnings that are comparable to even the base model Cybertruck and even then, they won't be in the same ballpark all things considered. One of the most important things for an American EV truck owner will be highway range. And I'm not talking about poking along at 55 mph in the slow lane. Most truck owners like to go 70 mph or more. Anything less offends their masculinity or something.

I haven't been closely following the amount of money invested in EV's by various manufacturers because it's not a good metric of much of anything. The less money spent to get superior results, the better. Tesla is more capital efficient than the rest and that's why they can offer so much more value for the same amount of money. Because the customer pays for all spending in the end.

I do know that the $700 billion market cap of Tesla has nothing directly to do with capital spending on EV's - that $700 billion is simply the amount that investors value the company at. It could go down to $400 billion next month or up to $1.4 trillion in the same amount of time.

And I think the numbers you are quoting for the OEM's are all announced spending, not spending that has already occurred. So, it's kinda like when they say "we have 20 gazillion new EV models planned before 2030", it's just rhetoric designed to create a narritive. No doubt, they have some internal planning documents with those numbers on it but that's about it. They may very well spend that much but that doesn't mean they will get an equal amount of value out from it. In fact, the people who are predicting bankruptcy are largely basing it on the neccessity of spending large amounts in order to try to compete with EV's. Spending more money doesn't mean they will be able to compete, it's all about capital efficiency - doing more with less.

 

[HaulingAss]

Hear. Hear!(clanking sound of last bells)

Hydrogen coal study
Toyota‘s Hydrogen strategy took a head-on collision with science finding coal emits less CO2 than H. Mfgrs platforming atop last century architectures, powering off hybrid ICE applying bolt-on electrifications are really digging own graves. Score Tesla!

You are correct, Tesla’s GigaMACHINERY is going to chew them up and spit them on the ash heap. Competing at scale is a bitch slap. Tesla point after kick!

Stellantis strikes my cortical machinery as the underdog with the right market mix, the intelligence and most grit to move into survivor category.
Chinese mfgrs(NIO,BYD, LI Auto, BAIDU, BAIC, etc…) are the local street fight to watch for an emerging global champion. China may merge or combine them to challenge Tesla’s labor cost if Elon’s machine doesn’t eat them first.
Japanese automakers(Toyota, Subaru, Nissan, etc…) are first order miniaturization experts who have competition from Korean, Taiwan and German brands in fit and trim perfection. So Tesla’s minimalist simplistic engineering first strategy leaves this group to itself. Something could really happen not yet envisioned from this category.

Lastly, in the unthinkable category SAAB may reincarnate. As the growing need for innovation, execution and thinking outside the box becomes sought after DNA, Scandinavian brands could muster to the electrification call. Even Jaguar has brand and history on its side to mount a resurgence in the face of war!

BEV Industry take on how it could emerge every mfgr on the leftside of “BEV Industry” IDK…

I don't have very good visibility into the Chinese brands but I generally agree that we can expect some surprises. I wouldn't be surprised to see VW redeem themselves. I think this is under-reported news (the Bugatti, Rimac and Porsche joint venture). Porsche owns VW now, right? I'm guessing this deal involves some core Rimac EV high-technology transfer to Porsche and VW. It might be what VW needs to make a real success of it in the EV space.

 

[HaulingAss]

Maybe.

Just a couple years ago the CEO of Stellantis said he didn't want people buying the Fiat EV because they lost money on it. That, plus their super late entry into the EV market, the funny dog-and-pony roll-out of their EV commitment, and the relatively modest investment in EV tech, seems to me Stellantis is doing the absolute minimum they can get away with in order to be compliant with regulations.

Ford is weirdly (weird for me anyhow) the most interesting alternative out there. The Mach E is a solid entry into the EV space. It's not Tesla good, but better than most everything else out there. GM, Nissan, VW, Audi, BMW, etc have been in this for 5-10+ years and haven't produced anything as good. That says a lot.

To my way of thinking, the Mach-e is solid proof that Ford doesn't have the core EV tech they need to succeed. Maybe they can acquire it before it's too late but I don't see them developing it in-house.

The only reason it looks like a solid effort is because they put such a big battery in it. That's not sustainable in a high volume car. It costs too much to make.

 

[Crissa]

Tesla didn't come out of the box with the Model Y fully formed either, which just makes the Mach-E's innards look so rough in comparison because Tesla has been delivering long-range EVs for a decade already.

There's nothing otherwise wrong with the Mach-E that can't be iterated upon. We should be amazed an old-school company was able to be so competent out of the box.

-Crissa

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