Article: Tesla’s Cybertruck delay may have been caused by design finalization

[Ogre]

What is impressive about the Mach E is that Ford was able to come up with a decent car on their first generation. It is significantly behind the Model Y, but surprisingly far ahead of pretty much everyone else.

Yes, Way less efficient than the Model Y.

Yes, the next Gen Model Y is nearly out the door right now and is going to at least momentarily open that gap a bit more.

But if this were a race, Tesla is way ahead, but after a very late start, Ford has managed to surpass the second and third place competitors. That IMO is impressive.

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[Ogre]

I haven't been closely following the amount of money invested in EV's by various manufacturers because it's not a good metric of much of anything. The less money spent to get superior results, the better. Tesla is more capital efficient than the rest and that's why they can offer so much more value for the same amount of money. Because the customer pays for all spending in the end.

I do know that the $700 billion market cap of Tesla has nothing directly to do with capital spending on EV's - that $700 billion is simply the amount that investors value the company at. It could go down to $400 billion next month or up to $1.4 trillion in the same amount of time.

Perhaps a better way to put this is. Tesla is in 100%.

Ford, Stellantis, GM... not so much.

There was a time when the big guys could outspend Tesla to make up for lost ground, but that time is quickly passing them by. Maybe it's already gone.

We're just at the bottom of the S Curve in EV demand and Tesla seems to be the only company that can provide enough vehicles to fill that demand curve.

 

[HaulingAss]

What is impressive about the Mach E is that Ford was able to come up with a decent car on their first generation. It is significantly behind the Model Y, but surprisingly far ahead of pretty much everyone else.

Yes, Way less efficient than the Model Y.

Yes, the next Gen Model Y is nearly out the door right now and is going to at least momentarily open that gap a bit more.

But if this were a race, Tesla is way ahead, but after a very late start, Ford has managed to surpass the second and third place competitors. That IMO is impressive.

OK, the Mach-e had pretty good marketing, I'll grant you that. But what about it, other than it's big battery, puts it above the other EV's in it's price range? Styling is superficial (and subjective anyways). It doesn't handle or brake better. It's not bigger. It doesn't go faster. The software is incomplete and very flaky. Over-the-air updates are a joke. Owners are complaining broadly about the jittery ride. The price is not a great value even though it's made in Mexico and Ford is losing money on each one. It was only built to get some emissions credits. I'm wracking my brain, what sets it apart from the others?

The point here is not to bash the Mach-e or take anything away from their effort - it's just to compare it fairly. What exactly did Ford do so much better on the Mach-e than the other non-Tesla EV's in the same class?

 

[HaulingAss]

Tesla didn't come out of the box with the Model Y fully formed either, which just makes the Mach-E's innards look so rough in comparison because Tesla has been delivering long-range EVs for a decade already.

There's nothing otherwise wrong with the Mach-E that can't be iterated upon. We should be amazed an old-school company was able to be so competent out of the box.

-Crissa

I'm glad Ford demonstrated maybe there is hope for them. It's better than continuing to do what they did the previous decade. Maybe I wouldn't be so jaded if, a few years bacik, Ford didn't tell us they were experts at building cars and the reason they weren't making an EV had nothing to do with not knowing how but everything to do with no consumer demand. That EV's were child's play to build for someone with the depth and breadth of technical know-how found at Ford but that consumers simply didn't want to buy EV's, at least not in any volume.

 

[SpaceDoc]

Likely similar to Sierra pinstripes. They can only be installed by the crafts-trees, buckbrush, and boulders along the forest roads or 4WD trails in the Sierra Nevada mountains.

nm... just read the comment by @jhogan2424 ... I'll take Sierra pinstripes any day myself.

when I lived in Arizona we called that desert pinstripes ?

 

[Rockvillerich]

Tesla’s production may have been delayed by Aliens. I have recently been told, aliens exist.

During a history channel broadcast, someone with interesting hair said you could not prove it was not aliens so, aliens.

There seems to be a leap of faith between cause and effect of production start. The guess may be correct but I am missing causal evidence,

It seems Aliens are just as likely as Cybertruck production.

 

[rr6013]

I don't have very good visibility into the Chinese brands but I generally agree that we can expect some surprises. I wouldn't be surprised to see VW redeem themselves. I think this is under-reported news (the Bugatti, Rimac and Porsche joint venture). Porsche owns VW now, right? I'm guessing this deal involves some core Rimac EV high-technology transfer to Porsche and VW. It might be what VW needs to make a real success of it in the EV space.

Porsche S.E. owns VWAGY and JV Bugatti-Rimac which from the article I read, back when it happened, Mate Rimac stays in the Hypercar pit with 55% rights to the JV in exchange for trading away 45% of RIMAC to VW.

I wanted to believe VW found their euro-Elon in Mate to transition VWAGY. BUT it’s a narrative I’ve seen before from the German automaker, a “we know more than you” leverage rather than woke-reality to the technological leadership vacuum within its C-suite.

 

[rr6013]

I'm glad Ford demonstrated maybe there is hope for them. It's better than continuing to do what they did the previous decade. Maybe I wouldn't be so jaded if, a few years bacik, Ford didn't tell us they were experts at building cars and the reason they weren't making an EV had nothing to do with not knowing how but everything to do with no consumer demand. That EV's were child's play to build for someone with the depth and breadth of technical know-how found at Ford but that consumers simply didn't want to buy EV's, at least not in any volume.

FORD THiNK is all I needed to judge its EV competency. FORD didn’t even apply marine grade electrical connectors to exposed wires and thought that the use of lead-acid batteries 22mi. range == EV.

Not only did consumers not want 22mi. e-vehicles, not even the USFS.gov could use them as Campground Host carts. That’s how I acquired one as a first e-vehicle for $900USD. FORD built child’s play exactly!

THiNK matched up with my FORD F-150 early 70’s experience when F-150’s would explode driveshafts into the pavement. Mach-e only thing changed now FORD‘s appending “-e” to a model == EV.

FORD has yet to cross over into survivor category. Its F-150 program, marketing and hybrid engineering are notable, honorable improvements to its pickup. Standout honors that are notable right now! Clever… I’ll give them that.

 

[intimidator]

I'm going to go out on a limb here. I know this is controversial, but my secret theory is that it is being delayed because they haven't figured out how to scale production of the 4680 battery.

Wait wait I know this sounds unlikely, but I have evidence. An anonymous source with knowledge of the matter gave me an exclusive. My source says they wouldn't produce the Cybertruck without the 4680 being manufactured at scale. They even went so far as to say that without high scale production, the Cybertruck would cost $1m per unit.

I know... it's hard to believe but I trust my source.

What did your source look like? Male? About 50 years old? Pointed ears?

Seriously though. The bottom line is the Cybertruck has been "delayed". Yes, the 4680 batteries are surely one reason. I have seen no evidence that Tesla is able to produce 4680 batteries at scale yet. And they are going to need a LOT of them to satisfy demand from the production of the Cybertruck. Even if they only build 100,000 CTs in the first 12 months of production, that is a lot of 4680 cells.

PS I saw a GMC Hummer EV on the road this past week. It looked ready for production...

 

[Ogre]

FORD has yet to cross over into survivor category. Its F-150 program, marketing and hybrid engineering are notable, honorable improvements to its pickup. Standout honors that are notable right now! Clever… I’ll give them that.

The F150 is another reason I think Ford is the most likely US company to survive this transition.

When they heard Tesla & Rivian were making electric trucks:

• GM responded by announcing the Hummer... a super impractical mega-toy.
• Toyota responded by doing mostly nothing.
• Stellantis/ Ram waited until it was really clear that this was in fact an actual thing and announced... nothing. "We're going to kick their asses when we figure out what we're doing!"

Ford announced a fairly practical truck with quite a few practical features which caught people's imaginations. They brought a legitimate work truck to the market. Ford was the only full-sized truck maker who actually came up with a well thought out practical response. Not only that, they were able to put together a functioning prototype of the truck and deliver it to the media... something Tesla is yet to do.

Ford has a lot of brand name loyalty. Lots of people are going to buy that F150 just on brand alone. And I suspect most people who buy it will be plenty happy with owning it. It's going to suck ass trying to drive more than a couple hundred miles in one of those and waiting an hour plus when on the road, but aside from that, it looks like a decent truck.

If it wasn't for the fact that I think the Cybertruck is a lot better value and has better technology, it would be very tempting.

 

[jhogan2424]

The F150 is another reason I think Ford is the most likely US company to survive this transition.

When they heard Tesla & Rivian were making electric trucks:

• GM responded by announcing the Hummer... a super impractical mega-toy.
• Toyota responded by doing mostly nothing.
• Stellantis/ Ram waited until it was really clear that this was in fact an actual thing and announced... nothing. "We're going to kick their asses when we figure out what we're doing!"

Ford announced a fairly practical truck with quite a few practical features which caught people's imaginations. They brought a legitimate work truck to the market. Ford was the only full-sized truck maker who actually came up with a well thought out practical response. Not only that, they were able to put together a functioning prototype of the truck and deliver it to the media... something Tesla is yet to do.

Ford has a lot of brand name loyalty. Lots of people are going to buy that F150 just on brand alone. And I suspect most people who buy it will be plenty happy with owning it. It's going to suck ass trying to drive more than a couple hundred miles in one of those and waiting an hour plus when on the road, but aside from that, it looks like a decent truck.

If it wasn't for the fact that I think the Cybertruck is a lot better value and has better technology, it would be very tempting.

I couldn’t have said it better myself.

 

[HaulingAss]

The F150 is another reason I think Ford is the most likely US company to survive this transition.

When they heard Tesla & Rivian were making electric trucks:

• GM responded by announcing the Hummer... a super impractical mega-toy.
• Toyota responded by doing mostly nothing.
• Stellantis/ Ram waited until it was really clear that this was in fact an actual thing and announced... nothing. "We're going to kick their asses when we figure out what we're doing!"

Ford announced a fairly practical truck with quite a few practical features which caught people's imaginations. They brought a legitimate work truck to the market. Ford was the only full-sized truck maker who actually came up with a well thought out practical response. Not only that, they were able to put together a functioning prototype of the truck and deliver it to the media... something Tesla is yet to do.

Ford has a lot of brand name loyalty. Lots of people are going to buy that F150 just on brand alone. And I suspect most people who buy it will be plenty happy with owning it. It's going to suck ass trying to drive more than a couple hundred miles in one of those and waiting an hour plus when on the road, but aside from that, it looks like a decent truck.

If it wasn't for the fact that I think the Cybertruck is a lot better value and has better technology, it would be very tempting.

You are giving Ford a LOT more credit than I am. For one, I don't consider giving Marque Brownlee sp? access to a prototype for an hour much different from what Tesla has done with the Cybertruck. Secondly, no, Ford has not brought a legitimate work truck to market (anymore than Tesla has) Because neither of them are available.

There seems to be this narrative floating about in the ether that the Cybertruck is not a legitimate work truck. Time will prove this as wrong as the claims that it won't sell well because of it's looks. Making a truck that looks how they have looked for decades does not make it anymore a work truck than the Cybertruck. What matters is how it functions as a work truck. I would give the nod to the 500 plus mile Cybertruck on the range alone.

 

[Ogre]

Ok back up a step here. I guess I wasn't as clear as I thought.

I'm not trying to laud Ford so much as point out that they are not as stupid as the rest of the industry (other than Tesla).

I'm not sure if the F150 is better for "Work" than the Cybertruck. I wasn't really trying to compare the two aside from mentioning that Ford has been a lot more generous with getting the media access to their truck. Which they have, not just Browlee, they also got it over to Munro and let him poke around it a bit (no tools) and a few others.

 

[Obxcast]

I'm going to go out on a limb here. I know this is controversial, but my secret theory is that it is being delayed because they haven't figured out how to scale production of the 4680 battery.

Wait wait I know this sounds unlikely, but I have evidence. An anonymous source with knowledge of the matter gave me an exclusive. My source says they wouldn't produce the Cybertruck without the 4680 being manufactured at scale. They even went so far as to say that without high scale production, the Cybertruck would cost $1m per unit.

I know... it's hard to believe but I trust my source.

Yup..my thoughts also.

 

[rr6013]

Yup..my thoughts also.

It isn’t chicken or egg existentialism yet

Until contractors demobilize and hardhats disappear its all delay(construction, rain, onsites, battery factory, etc…) Revisit in 12 mo after GigaAUSTIN is completed, onsite improvements are finished ~ July and SOP is possible, at scale ~Oct’22

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