Battery for the Giga Texas Model Y - not starting with 4680?

[happy intruder]

So, if one were to give up on their CT order in favor of a Model Y with a tow hitch, but wanted the 4680 cells, what would be the best strategy? Just a matter of order date, or will Fremont Model Ys ALWAYS be 2170?

Asking for a friend....

I think until Tesla transitions the Y production totally to Texas, all Ys from Fremont will be 2170s......freemont will then concentrate on the Model 3

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[Ogre]

I think until Tesla transitions the Y production totally to Texas, all Ys from Fremont will be 2170s......freemont will then concentrate on the Model 3

I’m not so sure about this.

What if Tesla starts up production in Texas, parks a week or two worth of cars in the warehouse, then shuts down Fremont to convert it over to 4680 production as well.

This is more or less how Tesla has done most of their conversions. Short shut down then switch over the whole setup.

Also possible. They start production in Texas with just the Performance until volume in Texas is high enough to support the whole line for long enough to transition to 4680.

No reason for Fremont to stick with 2170.

 

[Crissa]

No reason for Fremont to stick with 2170.

...Because they're cell constrained, period. Turning off the spigot of any cell type os going to reduce the total number of cars they can make.

To make more Powerwall products last year they had to import LFP packs from China. A decent supply of those won't arrive until April, when the LFP patent expires.

-Crissa

 

[uff_da]

...Because they're cell constrained, period. Turning off the spigot of any cell type os going to reduce the total number of cars they can make.

To make more Powerwall products last year they had to import LFP packs from China. A decent supply of those won't arrive until April, when the LFP patent expires.

-Crissa

Think they will eventually do this, but the timing will likely be much further in the future. 4680 production has to be very mature (best case a year?) and even then, as that supply grows, the demand from CT and Semi will suck those up.

I really hope at some point they make a longer range MY though. Keep using 2170's for a lower trim version.

 

[Ogre]

...Because they're cell constrained, period. Turning off the spigot of any cell type os going to reduce the total number of cars they can make.

To make more Powerwall products last year they had to import LFP packs from China. A decent supply of those won't arrive until April, when the LFP patent expires.

-Crissa

Drew Baglino said they are not cell constrained for 2022 (For the first time ever). If they are only able to convert half their production then they are in fact cell constrained.

Maybe what Baglino meant was “We’re not cell constrained for planned production in Texas”, but he sounded super confident.

The whole product line needs to move over. If they are in fact “Not cell constrained” as Baglino suggested. Then I think it will happen.

 

[Crissa]

Drew Baglino said they are not cell constrained for 2022 (For the first time ever). If they are only able to convert half their production then they are in fact cell constrained.

He said they aren't cell constrained for their total production - that just means supply of something else is lower. He did not say that they can replace all the cells that underpin more than 90% of their vehicles made in Fremont last year. (And maybe half the vehicles made in China.)

Overall, their sales are cell-constrained. But that includes power sales, which will absorb any 2170s they can spare from car production.

And they clearly have too few 4680s to supply Austin and Berlin at the same time, but apparently plenty for only one of them to use the cells exclusively. Every 4680 cell they make displaces 5 2170 cells - that's either 5 more cars they can make or more cars and other stuff.

-Crissa

 

[happy intruder]

i

He said they aren't cell constrained for their total production - that just means supply of something else is lower. He did not say that they can replace all the cells that underpin more than 90% of their vehicles made in Fremont last year. (And maybe half the vehicles made in China.)

Overall, their sales are cell-constrained. But that includes power sales, which will absorb any 2170s they can spare from car production.

And they clearly have too few 4680s to supply Austin and Berlin at the same time, but apparently plenty for only one of them to use the cells exclusively. Every 4680 cell they make displaces 5 2170 cells - that's either 5 more cars they can make or more cars and other stuff.

-Crissa

thought Berlin was going to use 2170s until Texas can produce more 4680s later in life

 

[Crissa]

i

thought Berlin was going to use 2170s until Texas can produce more 4680s later in life

That's what I said, I think?

-Crissa

ahh, I said 'only one of them'. Yeah, they haven't yet replicated the 4680 factory at either of them, so until then...

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