Coud Tesla offer an "AWD Lite" CT in 4Q 2025?

[hemiarch]

Fair point but is it truly competitive? Does it drive itself?
I’d think now would be the time to leverage the huge head start of the supercharger network too but they sort of gave that up didn’t they?
They could still leverage it by jacking the price for non-teslas I suppose.

Sponsored

 

[YDR37]

Fair point but is it truly competitive? Does it drive itself?

If you prioritize ADAS, then no non-Tesla vehicle currently has an ADAS comparable to FSD (Supervised). So in that case, there are no truly competitive alternatives to the CT.

But do all CT buyers have that priority? We don't have the numbers, but a significant percentage of CT buyers do not buy FSD (for $8,000, so that $87,990 becomes the entry-level price) or subscribe to FSD (for $99/month).

Tesla VP Lars Moravy recently stated that the overall FSD take rate for Tesla vehicles was in "the teens", so say 13-19%. I'm sure that figure is depressed by cost-conscious Model 3 and Model Y buyers, and that the CT take rate is higher. But it's not 100%. And if you are a CT buyer who does not use FSD, then yes, the R1T has to be considered a competitive alternative.

 

[YDR37]

I’d think now would be the time to leverage the huge head start of the supercharger network too but they sort of gave that up didn’t they?
They could still leverage it by jacking the price for non-teslas I suppose.

Non-Tesla drivers already pay 25-35% more at Superchargers, unless they subscribe to the "Supercharger Membership" for $12.99/month:

What is a Supercharger Membership?

A Supercharging Membership allows EV owners to Supercharge at the same price as Tesla vehicle owners when using the Tesla app. If you are a Tesla vehicle owner, you do not need a Supercharging Membership.

So the non-Tesla drivers either pay more at the charger, or they pay more for a subscription. Either way, they pay more.

 

[hemiarch]

If you prioritize ADAS, then no non-Tesla vehicle currently has an ADAS comparable to FSD (Supervised). So in that case, there are no truly competitive alternatives to the CT.

But do all CT buyers have that priority? We don't have the numbers, but a significant percentage of CT buyers do not buy FSD (for $8,000, so that $87,990 becomes the entry-level price) or subscribe to FSD (for $99/month).

Tesla VP Lars Moravy recently stated that the overall FSD take rate for Tesla vehicles was in "the teens", so say 13-19%. I'm sure that figure is depressed by cost-conscious Model 3 and Model Y buyers, and that the CT take rate is higher. But it's not 100%. And if you are a CT buyer who does not use FSD, then yes, the R1T has to be considered a competitive alternative.

We’ll see about all that very soon when you can sit in the back seat while it drives you to work.
2018 model 3’s at CarMax that used to belong to teenagers will double in price. Mark my words.

 

[hemiarch]

Non-Tesla drivers already pay extra at Superchargers, unless they subscribe to the "Supercharger Membership" for $12.99/month:
So the non-Tesla drivers either pay more at the charger, or they pay more for a subscription. Either way, they pay more.

They don’t really pay that much. Have you looked into the subscription price? You want to strangle bezos and rivian? $0.75 or more a kWh if you’re not driving a tesla or a subscription that adds $200 to your car payment.

 

[hemiarch]

They don’t really pay that much. Have you looked into the subscription price? You want to strangle bezos and rivian? $0.75 or more a kWh if you’re not driving a tesla or a subscription that adds $200 to your car payment.

What are they gonna do? Compete using the rivian “adventure network”?

 

[SCTesla]

We’ll see about all that very soon when you can sit in the back seat while it drives you to work.
2018 model 3’s at CarMax that used to belong to teenagers will double in price. Mark my words.

"Soon"...It will still be a few years IMO and Tesla has hinted that FSDS will be a different product than FSDU.

 

[hemiarch]

"Soon"...It will still be a few years IMO and Tesla has hinted that FSDS will be a different product than FSDU.

Fair.

 

[hemiarch]

I really do think they gave up the best competitive edge they had by opening superchargers up to everybody and they need to leverage that to not lose market share.

 

[GuyV]

Saying no, they already attempted this, RWD FAIL!

Tesla sold Model 3/Y in the past for $20k less but didn’t strip anything out, just the extra motor!

Tesla can’t hurt the profit margin if there are little or no sales already! Stop attempting selling the gimmick “Luxe” BEAST, maybe cancel that too.

Let’s go back to $49,990 and $69,990 and maybe they will sell!

Selling 250k at less price is better profit margin than selling 4000 a year at current or higher price.

Ready!

Yep, they need lower pricing, and Elon knew that from the beginning. I expected the RWD price was just a preliminary introductory number to be ratchetted down after tax credits expired because it looked like it was designed for significant further cost-squeezing. Who knows, maybe their cost-reductions efforts were running well behind schedule, and it may return at an actually competitive price later on.

 

[YDR37]

Don’t think the average auto sold in US is close to $72K, for most Americans. It’s expensive at either price point

In August 2025, the "Average Transaction Price" (ATP) for a new vehicle was $49,077, according to Cox Automotive. So yeah, a Cybertruck is clearly expensive with ($72,490) or without ($79,990) the soon-to-be-gone federal tax credit.

You can get a new Tesla sedan (Model 3) or a new Tesla SUV (Model Y) for less than that ATP, even without the tax credit. But there's a hole in the Tesla lineup where the inexpensive truck should be.

 

[hemiarch]

In August 2025, the "Average Transaction Price" (ATP) for a new vehicle was $49,077, according to Cox Automotive. So yeah, a Cybertruck is clearly expensive with ($72,490) or without ($79,990) the soon-to-be-gone federal tax credit.

You can get a new Tesla sedan (Model 3) or a new Tesla SUV (Model Y) for less than that ATP, even without the tax credit. But there's a hole in the Tesla lineup where the inexpensive truck should be.

Is the hole kind of cyber suv shaped?

 

[Griswold]

Yep, they need lower pricing, and Elon knew that from the beginning. I expected the RWD price was just a preliminary introductory number to be ratchetted down after tax credits expired because it looked like it was designed for significant further cost-squeezing. Who knows, maybe their cost-reductions efforts were running well behind schedule, and it may return at an actually competitive price later on.

X AWD luxe is $100k. S AWD luxe is $95k. I fully expect Cybertruck AWD to go luxe after 9/30 since there's no longer a need to keep it under $80k. Most likely would go to 95k with luxe.

Sure they will probably unbundle luxe at some point to drive sales but I think the days of "cheap" Cybertrucks are almost over. Hence why they eliminated the RWD.

Just like the referral credit categories, Cybertruck is in the category of X and S. Yes when launched it seemed it would be more like 3 and Y but that seems very doubtful at this point.

Also it's quite clear the looks are polarizing. If they lower the price they'll get more sales but it won't dominate the market since too many people just don't like the look of it. Instead they seem satisfied to keep it as a luxury product and priced accordingly.

 

[GuyV]

X AWD luxe is $100k. S AWD luxe is $95k. I fully expect Cybertruck AWD to go luxe after 9/30 since there's no longer a need to keep it under $80k. Most likely would go to 95k with luxe.

Sure they will probably unbundle luxe at some point to drive sales but I think the days of "cheap" Cybertrucks are almost over. Hence why they eliminated the RWD.

Just like the referral credit categories, Cybertruck is in the category of X and S. Yes when launched it seemed it would be more like 3 and Y but that seems very doubtful at this point.

Also it's quite clear the looks are polarizing. If they lower the price they'll get more sales but it won't dominate the market since too many people just don't like the look of it. Instead they seem satisfied to keep it as a luxury product and priced accordingly.

If they manage to keep selling them in respectable quantities I believe the look will become normalized into being thought of as merely distinctive as they accumulate on the roads. The presence is already mounting, a lot faster actually than the earliest Tesla models did originally. The "truckness" also seems to be settling in as awareness grows. Friends and family report regular sightings, talking more about various wraps than just seeing another Cybertruck around. Less expensive versions would only accelerate that.

 

[YDR37]

The last time the credit expired, prices were dropped across the board for all EV's, not just Teslas. Tesla dropped it by the exact amount of the credit. ... I think a price drop to Cybertruck and other models is very likely.

That seems like a plausible scenario. I could totally see a $72,490 AWD CT in 4Q 2025.

X AWD luxe is $100k. S AWD luxe is $95k. I fully expect Cybertruck AWD to go luxe after 9/30 since there's no longer a need to keep it under $80k. Most likely would go to 95k with luxe.

That seems like a plausible scenario. I could totally see a $94,990 AWD CT in 4Q 2025.

So there you have it, folks: the consensus predication of cybertruckownersclub.com (the leading site for Cybertruck news and discussion). In 4Q 2025, after the tax credit expires, Tesla will set the price of a new AWD CT somewhere between $72,490 and $94,990. I have high confidence in the accuracy of this prediction.

Sponsored