Coud Tesla offer an "AWD Lite" CT in 4Q 2025?

[YDR37]

It’s just 11 days until October 1 and the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit, which means that Telsa will have a decision to make. Most Americans qualified for that credit, and we can safely assume that it was applied in most AWD Cybertruck sales. If Tesla does nothing, then the effective entry-level price for an AWD Cybertruck will rise from $72,490 to $79,990 for most people, which is an increase of 10.4%.

One obvious option: Tesla could slash the retail price of the AWD CT to $72,490, to offset the loss of the tax credit. But that would obviously hurt Tesla’s profit margins, which may not be very high on the AWD CT, even at $79,990.

Another option: Tesla could let the effective price of the traditional AWD CT rise to $79,990 – but then offer a stripped (“de-contented”) version of the AWD CT for $72,490. The recently discontinued RWD CT offers a blueprint for this approach; it had lower-cost features like:

- no powered tonneau cover
- coil spring suspension
- no bed outlets
- cloth seats, heated in front only, not ventilated
- fewer speakers/subwoofers
- different wheels/covers
- no under-bed compartment
- No HEPA filter
- No rear screen

In theory, Tesla could offer an “AWD Lite” CT with some or all of these RWD features. Potential advantages of this approach:

• Low development costs, because all of these lower-cost features have already been designed and produced for the RWD.
  
  
• An “AWD Lite” could be offered at a lower price than the traditional AWD, potentially keeping the entry-level cost for a CT at $72,490. while also preserving Tesla’s profit margins.
  
  
• An “AWD Lite” would still have two motors and AWD, so it would offer the same performance as the traditional AWD (where the RWD fell short).

The RWD didn’t sell. But a higher-performance “AWD Lite” could be a more attractive way to offer a more affordable CT.

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[YDR37]

In theory, Tesla could offer an “AWD Lite” CT with some or all of these RWD features.

The RWD Cybertruck has been discontinued, but some RWD accessories are still available, like the Powershare Outlet Adapter and the Soft Tonneau Cover.

Maybe Tesla just has an oversupply of RWD accessories in stock. But those accessories would also work just as well on a hypothetical future "AWD Lite" model.

 

[BlueLightning]

Saying no, they already attempted this, RWD FAIL!

Tesla sold Model 3/Y in the past for $20k less but didn’t strip anything out, just the extra motor!

Tesla can’t hurt the profit margin if there are little or no sales already! Stop attempting selling the gimmick “Luxe” BEAST, maybe cancel that too.

Let’s go back to $49,990 and $69,990 and maybe they will sell!

Selling 250k at less price is better profit margin than selling 4000 a year at current or higher price.

Ready!

 

[SlegMD]

Yikes

 

[Beetlebug62]

The RWD does not seem to have sold all that well, so I don't think decontenting the existing dual-motor is likely.

I vaguely recall the last time the tax credit disappeared, Tesla slowly dropped the prices. Back then, interest rates were lower, so that wasn't really an option.

Today, I would think lower rates would still be the preferred method of keeping mostly costs lower. Lowering the MSRP also hurts used vehicle prices, so existing owners don't like it.

I did see a tweet yesterday by someone close to Franz who said to "wait", because there's lots on the table, when asked about a future CyberSUV or smaller CT. Take it with a grain of salt.

 

[TheLastStarfighter]

The last time the credit expired, prices were dropped across the board for all EV's, not just Teslas. Tesla dropped it by the exact amount of the credit. It's why credits are dumb, they're just banked by manufacturers, they don't help consumers.

I think a price drop to Cybertruck and other models is very likely. Might come with some things becoming optional.

Also worth noting that the Plaids had a massive price drop after two years that pissed early buyers off. We're coming up on that time with CT.

 

[Griswold]

With the Cyberbeast bumped to $115k including luxe, and RWD discontinued, it seems logical the AWD will include luxe around $95k in October, but perhaps if other manufacturers drop prices Tesla will too by $5k or $10k.

After September 30 there will be no reason to keep the AWD under $80k and they seem to be going in the direction that the Cybertruck is a premium low volume line.

 

[BlueLightning]

Sad, 2019 Cybertrucks for all. Five years later not so true.

Even Legacy offers $15k off their $95k end of year models!

 

[YDR37]

With only 11 days to go, there is an impressive lack of clarity regarding AWD Cybertruck pricing after October 1. Possible scenarios that have been suggested:

1. Tesla does nothing. Without the tax credit, the effective price of an AWD CT rises from $72,490 to $79,990, making it less affordable for most Americans.

2. Tesla allows the effective price of AWD CT to rise to $79,990, but adds attractive incentives to help compensate for the higher price. Could include some combination of lower interest rates, feature upgrades, free FSD, or free Supercharging,

3. Tesla repositions the AWD CT as a luxury vehicle, like the Model S or Model X. The new price is significantly higher than $79,990, but includes the Luxe Package.

4. To maintain the same level of affordability, Tesla lowers the retail price of an AWD CT, even though this hurts their profit margin. Maybe the price drops by $7,500 to $72,490, to fully compensate for the loss of the tax credit. Or maybe the price drops by $2,500 or $5,000, which would only partially compensate.

5. To maintain affordability while protecting their profit margins, Tesla offers a $72,490 "de-contented" version of the AWD CT, using features developed for the now-discontinued RWD CT. The traditional AWD CT stays at $79,990.

Any other scenarios that you can think of? We'll get the answer in 11 days.

 

[Speedr]

With only 11 days to go, there is an impressive lack of clarity regarding AWD Cybertruck pricing after October 1. Possible scenarios that have been suggested:

1. Tesla does nothing. Without the tax credit, the effective price of an AWD CT rises from $72,490 to $79,990, making it less affordable for most Americans.

2. Tesla allows the effective price of AWD CT to rise to $79,990, but adds attractive incentives to help compensate for the higher price. Could include some combination of lower interest rates, feature upgrades, free FSD, or free Supercharging,

3. Tesla repositions the AWD CT as a luxury vehicle, like the Model S or Model X. The new price is significantly higher than $79,990, but includes the Luxe Package.

4. To maintain the same level of affordability, Tesla lowers the retail price of an AWD CT, even though this hurts their profit margin. Maybe the price drops by $7,500 to $72,490, to fully compensate for the loss of the tax credit. Or maybe the price drops by $2,500 or $5,000, which would only partially compensate.

5. To maintain affordability while protecting their profit margins, Tesla offers a $72,490 "de-contented" version of the AWD CT, using features developed for the now-discontinued RWD CT. The traditional AWD CT stays at $79,990.

Any other scenarios that you can think of? We'll get the answer in 11 days.

FYI, probably more like 18 days. They usually wait a week or two after the quarter is over so people don't smart having bought something the day or two before.

 

[shopaholic]

1. Tesla does nothing. Without the tax credit, the effective price of an AWD CT rises from $72,490 to $79,990, making it less affordable for most Americans

Don’t think the average auto sold in US is close to $72K, for most Americans. It’s expensive at either price point and people who want it can afford it with few incentives added- say, 4 year/50K miles of free FSD and SC added.

 

[hemiarch]

Iprice for an AWD Cybertruck will rise from $72,490 to $79,990 for most people, which is an increase of 10.4 %

Yes, but it will do the same for every other EV and for many that actually represents an even greater percentage.
Price is about positioning goods relative to each other and (don’t kill me here) is somewhat irrelevant when there isn’t a competing good that’s cheaper.
This will rapidly ripple into used EV prices too I think.
There are a lot of things I don’t agree with Elon on, but the fact that this is medium to long term what’s best for Tesla and therefore Tesla buyers (us), is not something I’ve doubted.

 

[Griswold]

With only 11 days to go, there is an impressive lack of clarity regarding AWD Cybertruck pricing after October 1. Possible scenarios that have been suggested:

1. Tesla does nothing. Without the tax credit, the effective price of an AWD CT rises from $72,490 to $79,990, making it less affordable for most Americans.

2. Tesla allows the effective price of AWD CT to rise to $79,990, but adds attractive incentives to help compensate for the higher price. Could include some combination of lower interest rates, feature upgrades, free FSD, or free Supercharging,

3. Tesla repositions the AWD CT as a luxury vehicle, like the Model S or Model X. The new price is significantly higher than $79,990, but includes the Luxe Package.

4. To maintain the same level of affordability, Tesla lowers the retail price of an AWD CT, even though this hurts their profit margin. Maybe the price drops by $7,500 to $72,490, to fully compensate for the loss of the tax credit. Or maybe the price drops by $2,500 or $5,000, which would only partially compensate.

5. To maintain affordability while protecting their profit margins, Tesla offers a $72,490 "de-contented" version of the AWD CT, using features developed for the now-discontinued RWD CT. The traditional AWD CT stays at $79,990.

Any other scenarios that you can think of? We'll get the answer in 11 days.

Referral credits could go up to $2000 for Cybertruck/S/X, $1000 for 3/Y, or something like that. It just went to $1000 for Cybertruck so it could easily go up once the credit expires to help buyers feel like they're getting a deal without eroding the price too much.

 

[Mini2nut]

The national average salary is $63,795. The $80k Cybertruck is out of reach for the vast majority of Americans.

I do see some marketing incentives coming for the CT in the next 6 months. The marketing folks have a plethora of incentives to slap on the CT.

We may even see the RWD trim pop its head up again with MSRP and content modifications.

 

[YDR37]

Yes, but it will do the same for every other EV and for many that actually represents an even greater percentage. ... Price is about positioning goods relative to each other and (don’t kill me here) is somewhat irrelevant when there isn’t a competing good that’s cheaper.

The loss of the tax credit will likely improve Rivian's competitive position. 2025 Rivian purchases are ineligible for the $7,500 tax credit anyway, due to battery sourcing issues (although Rivians do qualify for the lease credit). So the loss of the credit should not have any direct effect on the retail price of Rivians.

If Rivian does nothing and Tesla does nothing, then the starting price for a dual-motor AWD Rivian R1T will stay at $70,990, while the starting price of a dual-motor AWD Tesla Cybertruck will be 12.7% higher, at $79,990. Seems like this could qualify as "a competing good that's cheaper".

Of course, there is no guarantee that Rivian and Tesla will both do nothing in 4Q. Tesla could lower CT pricing, or Rivian could decide that the price discrepancy gives them headroom to raise R1T pricing.

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