Cybertruck @ Electrify Expo Austin starting tomorrow

[cvalue13]

Agreed, given the recently leaked curb weight it does appear the size reduction came about as a necessity more than a deliberate choice.

surely a factor, and maybe a main factor

but I think these things tend to be complex and multi-faceted “all things considered” compromises, that at an engineering and design level are necessarily causally linked.

Fact is, we know that very little deep engineering had gone into the 2019 specs on screen. Only a month prior to the 2019 reveal event had Musk overridden the engineering/design team, told them they were building the thing, and instructed them to make a rolling chassis.

Accordingly, I think it’s entirely reasonable to give it at least a 50/50 chance that the 2019 on screen reveal specs were asserting not a considered engineering conclusion but instead a design thesis: “the truck will be identical in footprint to an F150, but have a larger bed, and these target specs.” Standard sort of Musk goal-setting.



Then, though, the deep work began.

• Physics set in (eg your point).

• But maybe moreso, so did per-unit manufacturing cost realities - which, as relates to MSRP, most directly relates viability of the product.

• Then there’s deeper marketing analysis: eg, which is the broader TAM for a BEV truck, one with the urban agility near midsized but the capabilities nearer a fullsized, or instead one with the urban agility nearer a fullsized but the capabilities nearer a 3/4 ton?

• Then there’s intersection of the above with the design output: put in more batteries, and suddenly either your headspace (or clearance) shrinks to unacceptable proportions, or you elongate the height of the truck and end up with a vehicle that looks unattractively like the prototype Cybertruck has been stretched in photoshop.


Note how the above factors are all necessarily correlated, and as you turn one dial all the others are dragged along for the ride.

End of the day, there are stretch goals, then there are stretch goals.

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[PilotPete]

surely a factor, and maybe a main factor

but I think these things tend to be complex and multi-faceted “all things considered” compromises, that at an engineering and design level are necessarily causally linked.

Fact is, we know that very little deep engineering had gone into the 2019 specs on screen. Only a month prior to the 2019 reveal event had Musk overridden the engineering/design team, told them they were building the thing, and instructed them to make a rolling chassis.

Accordingly, I think it’s entirely reasonable to give it at least a 50/50 chance that the 2019 on screen reveal specs were asserting not a considered engineering conclusion but instead a design thesis: “the truck will be identical in footprint to an F150, but have a larger bed, and these target specs.” Standard sort of Musk goal-setting.



Then, though, the deep work began.

• Physics set in (eg your point).

• But maybe moreso, so did per-unit manufacturing cost realities - which, as relates to MSRP, most directly relates viability of the product.

• Then there’s deeper marketing analysis: eg, which is the broader TAM for a BEV truck, one with the urban agility near midsized but the capabilities nearer a fullsized, or instead one with the urban agility nearer a fullsized but the capabilities nearer a 3/4 ton?

• Then there’s intersection of the above with the design output: put in more batteries, and suddenly either your headspace (or clearance) shrinks to unacceptable proportions, or you elongate the height of the truck and end up with a vehicle that looks unattractively like the prototype Cybertruck has been stretched in photoshop.


Note how the above factors are all necessarily correlated, and as you turn one dial all the others are dragged along for the ride.

End of the day, there are stretch goals, then there are stretch goals.

I don’t think weight was as big a factor as assumed. From what we have been told, you start with the prototype. Oops, gotta get below 80” in width. Ok, now we have to get below 19’ in length. And then it was a proportions and design problem.. From everything we’ve actually been told to date, this is what we know.

 

[RVAC]

surely a factor, and maybe a main factor

but I think these things tend to be complex and multi-faceted “all things considered” compromises, that at an engineering and design level are necessarily causally linked.

Fact is, we know that very little deep engineering had gone into the 2019 specs on screen. Only a month prior to the 2019 reveal event had Musk overridden the engineering/design team, told them they were building the thing, and instructed them to make a rolling chassis.

Accordingly, I think it’s entirely reasonable to give it at least a 50/50 chance that the 2019 on screen reveal specs were asserting not a considered engineering conclusion but instead a design thesis: “the truck will be identical in footprint to an F150, but have a larger bed, and these target specs.” Standard sort of Musk goal-setting.



Then, though, the deep work began.

• Physics set in (eg your point).

• But maybe moreso, so did per-unit manufacturing cost realities - which, as relates to MSRP, most directly relates viability of the product.

• Then there’s deeper marketing analysis: eg, which is the broader TAM for a BEV truck, one with the urban agility near midsized but the capabilities nearer a fullsized, or instead one with the urban agility nearer a fullsized but the capabilities nearer a 3/4 ton?

• Then there’s intersection of the above with the design output: put in more batteries, and suddenly either your headspace (or clearance) shrinks to unacceptable proportions, or you elongate the height of the truck and end up with a vehicle that looks unattractively like the prototype Cybertruck has been stretched in photoshop.


Note how the above factors are all necessarily correlated, and as you turn one dial all the others are dragged along for the ride.

End of the day, there are stretch goals, then there are stretch goals.

There’s a confluence of factors, no doubt. Weight not being the only one, just that it could have forced their hand to a greater degree than previously assumed.

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