Cybertruck FSD wishful thinking.

[JohnnyDadBod]

Tesla is already collecting HUGE amounts of data with the relatively few CT's already on the road. Take a look at my router logs. Sunday was just from the 3-hour last leg of our 2,500 mile trip from Florida to Ohio and Back. Each Each Supercharger stop during our trip had Starlink based WiFi connections where the truck connected and would have also been uploading data from other legs of the trip.

The long pole in the tent isn't even the need for more training data but the need for the highway neural net based stack to complement the neural net based city stack that debuted with V12. Tesla wasn't going to take on the huge effort to manually code the V11 rules based highway stack (that still powers AP/FSD on every highway in every customer Tesla till this day) when the unified NN stack is so close to being ready. 12.5 and 12.6 are already in various stages of internal validation which runs in parallel to the current testing/validation of the 12.4.x FSD builds.

Based on that I do fully expect FSD functions to begin with FSD 12.5. The full feature set may not be there on the first release to CT, such as auto-park, summon, smart summon, or even the enhanced Parking visualization, but I do expect AP and FSD to come with 12.5.

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[Hims3lf]

I think it is already built in. When you use adaptive cruise control it knows when to slow on curves and when you use the auto turn signals, it knows when your still turning or in the next lane. I think it is already baked in, just waiting for them to activate the final version.
My guess mid July 2024.

 

[JohnnyDadBod]

I think it is already built in. When you use adaptive cruise control it knows when to slow on curves and when you use the auto turn signals, it knows when your still turning or in the next lane. I think it is already baked in, just waiting for them to activate the final version.
My guess mid July 2024.

Based on the fact that cruise can be set to up to 90MPH rather than 85MPH which as been the limit ever since Tesla switched to vision only along with the overall timid nature of TACC in it's current form I believe this is actually quite an old bit of code. Much of what you see in the AP UI is also very rudimentary in nature. Should see quite a leap once FSD 12.5 gets here.

 

[Guzziot]

We don’t even have on screen grid lines to tell us where the bumpers are, or an overhead view while backing up. These are common in cars costing half as much as cybertruck.
I love mine and look forward to fsd but have no expectation of getting it before the end of this year.

 

[rudedawg78]

I don't think FSD will be available until there are at least 1,000,000 Cybertrucks on the road. I'm thinking by the end of 2026 or the beginning of 2027. Reason being, there is not enough data like there is on the other Tesla models. I am about 98% sure of this, and I believe why Elon gave such an early date, well... To sell more Cybertrucks of course... but 100% hope I am wrong. But I know if I owned a company like Tesla.I would make sure everything is working 100% before any risk of lawsuits. What are your estimates?

You lost me after "until there is at least a MILLION Cybertrucks on the road" and then said "end of 2026...beginning of 2027" You do know that even with max production, there will not be a million Cybertrucks on the road by those dates?

My estimate is the beginning to mid of next year (2025). We shall see.

 

[Cactusrick]

I don't think FSD will be available until there are at least 1,000,000 Cybertrucks on the road. I'm thinking by the end of 2026 or the beginning of 2027. Reason being, there is not enough data like there is on the other Tesla models. I am about 98% sure of this, and I believe why Elon gave such an early date, well... To sell more Cybertrucks of course... but 100% hope I am wrong. But I know if I owned a company like Tesla.I would make sure everything is working 100% before any risk of lawsuits. What are your estimates?

Maybe.... Elon definitely over promises and under delivers...I think it will be sooner by EoY...

 

[Arctic_White]

Am I wrong? Was the Cybertruck not supposed to release in 2021? You guys will come back to my post and say I was right 2 years down-the-line. Watch lol.

Your post reminds me of this saying from the infamous Mark Twain:

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so."

 

[CyberTW]

Not only was the Cybertruck supposed to be released in 2021, but we were supposed to start colonizing Mars this year as well, and also we were supposed to have the release of the Tesla bot this year as well lmao? I have nothing but love for Mr. Musk, but you have to admit, his timing is always way off, by years++.

At least he is self aware to know he is overly optimistic and doesn’t fail, just is late…

 

[HaulingAss]

Am I wrong? Was the Cybertruck not supposed to release in 2021? You guys will come back to my post and say I was right 2 years down-the-line. Watch lol.

I'm amazed Tesla was able to develop a radically new platform in such a short period of time, especially considering COVID and the breakdown of supply chains and timelines that Tesla depends upon to keep a project on track.

Anyone with their eyes open knows Elon's timelines are almost always too optimistic. I'm still amazed how good the Cybertruck is, given the incredibly short development time.

 

[CyberTW]

We don’t even have on screen grid lines to tell us where the bumpers are, or an overhead view while backing up. These are common in cars costing half as much as cybertruck.
I love mine and look forward to fsd but have no expectation of getting it before the end of this year.

I would put a very healthy gentlemen’s (or women’s) bet that FSD is on the CT before December 31, 2024

 

[HaulingAss]

Elon already annouced Cybertruck would get FSD with 12.5 release which should be available in next month or two. Not even 40k Cybertrucks will have been delivered by then.

Exactly! As much as I miss FSD, I'm so glad Tesla didn't wait until FSD was ported to Cybertruck before they started delivering them.

I could always drive my Performance Model 3 that has FSD, but then I wouldn't be driving the Cybertruck!

 

[HaulingAss]

Not only was the Cybertruck supposed to be released in 2021, but we were supposed to start colonizing Mars this year as well, and also we were supposed to have the release of the Tesla bot this year as well lmao? I have nothing but love for Mr. Musk, but you have to admit, his timing is always way off, by years++.

You sound like a whiner.

You cannot achieve audacious things without audacious goals. No living human has successfully achieved more audacious things, designed to benefit humanity, then Elon Musk. If you know of someone else, let me know.

It sounds like you are just trying to recite successes, in a manner that presents Elon as a failure, in an odd attempt to turn people off from him, and his future goals.

That's what legacy auto, oil companies, and satellite launching companies want. Because they know they can't make things happen as reliably, as quickly or as inexpensively, as Elon Musk. They want people to hate the man doing the most to try to bend humanity towards a better future. It's actually sickening, if you really think about it.

I wouldn't feel good about myself if I let myself become a minion for dark forces, trying to prevent positive change for the sake of holding onto old power and old money. It's essential that capitalism remains dynamic and responds quickly to new needs. People trying to slow the way that capitalism responds to human needs are creating future pain and suffering on a colossal human scale. Many can't even see this. Elon is looking ahead a century or more, a timescale that many people think is irrelevant.

Meanwhile, the peanut gallery thows their shells at him and boos. It makes them look ignorant.

 

[HaulingAss]

You lost me after "until there is at least a MILLION Cybertrucks on the road" and then said "end of 2026...beginning of 2027" You do know that even with max production, there will not be a million Cybertrucks on the road by those dates?

That's how you can tell when someone is talking out of their butt.

 

[HaulingAss]

I love it when Elon talks about how dumb the idea of hydrogen cars are! I miss him man-crushing on that idea.

 

[Joeman]

I would put a very healthy gentlemen’s (or women’s) bet that FSD is on the CT before December 31, 2024

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