Cybertruck Price Drop Prediction Thread

[scottyah]

With the Cybertruck hitting profitability and Wes (Lead Cybertruck Engineer) posting "back to the cost grind", when do we expect a real price reduction* on the cybertruck?

* IMO the ~$80k cybertruck isn't a real price reduction so much as a low-feature or stripped-down offering, since the all the available add-ons get you pretty close to the Foundation Series price.

I expect it within the first quarter 2025, based on absolutely nothing. What are y'all's thoughts?

Two caveats: I think they'll get the Federal discount applied before a price drop, and after that it'll be incremental as they keep on tha (cost reducing) grind.

I do think the first price drop will be semi-significant to drum up more sales and get people watching.

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[Longranger]

The market for the CT, at the current selling price appears smaller than Tesla anticipated. In order to bring costs down they want to produce at high volume. If they have to throttle back production due to slow sales the cost curve could stall. This may be a difficult dance for Tesla. prices will come down if Tesla can.

 

[KG206]

I think the rebate will pop first. Then price drops. Based also on absolutely nothing. other than it’s absolutely something I’ve weighed since placing my order on 10/4 and watching things play out the way they have.

I heavily agree, the $80k is second wave of early adopter fees. There will at least be financing incentives to move Cybertruck I think.

If I think all this, why am I proceeding with my order I placed on 10/4? Because I test drove one finally yesterday and I’m done waiting.

 

[REM]

the $80k is second wave of early adopter fees.

?

 

[Hgamble]

I personally feel comfortable with the value proposition the Dual Motor AWD CT presents at 72K after POS tax credit

 

[Balthezor]

Let's go. Need more of these out there.

 

[electricAK]

Take a look at prices for Rivian, Raptor, Lightning, Silverado EV, etc.
CT at 79k is reasonable. 72.5k after credit will be downright excellent.
The CT value proposition is already there. I'm sure the price will drop eventually, but it might be a while.

 

[scottyah]

Take a look at prices for Rivian, Raptor, Lightning, Silverado EV, etc.
CT at 79k is reasonable. 72.5k after credit will be downright excellent.
The CT value proposition is already there. I'm sure the price will drop eventually, but it might be a while.

I don't disagree, but look at the value proposition for the M3 and MY compared to their competition. I just don't think Tesla is going to stop finding more efficiencies and trying to sell more EV's.

 

[DrShah]

With the Cybertruck hitting profitability and Wes (Lead Cybertruck Engineer) posting "back to the cost grind", when do we expect a real price reduction* on the cybertruck?

* IMO the ~$80k cybertruck isn't a real price reduction so much as a low-feature or stripped-down offering, since the all the available add-ons get you pretty close to the Foundation Series price.

I expect it within the first quarter 2025, based on absolutely nothing. What are y'all's thoughts?

Two caveats: I think they'll get the Federal discount applied before a price drop, and after that it'll be incremental as they keep on tha (cost reducing) grind.

I do think the first price drop will be semi-significant to drum up more sales and get people watching.

I actually thought about this but at this point, I am so tired of waiting and I wanted to get as much as possible on the trade-in of my wife’s old Honda pilot so I finally pulled the trigger for non FS CB.

 

[Bill W.]

Don't worry folks! As soon as I take delivery, there will be some type of price drop and/or financing incentive offered.

 

[Mini2nut]

A very low 3% conversion rate means that 97% of Cybertruck reservation holders are not biting.

The #1 reason? The 40% higher than anticipated MSRP's. Interested buyers reserved at $40k, $50k and $70k price points in 2019.

I predict incentives and a RWD model are coming in 2025.

 

[Pops]

I do not think there will be a price drop. Incentives yes, like lower APR, 6 months free super charging, or discounted FSD. I doubt it happens before 2025, but its possible it will be in December.

The only "price drop" will come with the Rear Wheel Drive model.

 

[chonnertruk]

If the tax credit is approved, will ce owners qualify for a rebate?

 

[HaulingAss]

With the Cybertruck hitting profitability and Wes (Lead Cybertruck Engineer) posting "back to the cost grind", when do we expect a real price reduction* on the cybertruck?

* IMO the ~$80k cybertruck isn't a real price reduction so much as a low-feature or stripped-down offering, since the all the available add-ons get you pretty close to the Foundation Series price.

I expect it within the first quarter 2025, based on absolutely nothing. What are y'all's thoughts?

There will be too much demand to make sense dropping the price in the next year. It's still a very new product and all those who were waiting for the Cybertruck to prove its quality, durability and reliablity are already starting to jump in feet first. Expect wait times to increase.

I listened to the conference call yesterday and the statement was something to the the effect of the Cybertruck having hit profitable gross margins "for the first time" sometime in the quarter. My experienced investor take on that statement was that it was not a forward-looking statement, it was a statement of fact. And all those sales were with the Foundation Edition Premium and FSD. I'm confident that Dual Motor Cybertrucks without FSD are not yet gross margin profitable, so no price drops for some time.

The $80K price is a real price reduction for those who don't want or need FSD. That's $8k of pure profit for Tesla, making the $80K product without FSD a true price drop (because you simply couldn't buy it without FSD until recently).

 

[HaulingAss]

I do not think there will be a price drop. Incentives yes, like lower APR, 6 months free super charging, or discounted FSD. I doubt it happens before 2025, but its possible it will be in December.

The only "price drop" will come with the Rear Wheel Drive model.

Prices will eventually drop a bit more on both AWD versions, but it will take some time for production to overcome growing demand. People still aren't clued into what a great product Cybertruck is because they haven't looked past it's non-conforming looks.

Future price drops will be small and far between. It's possible, but unlikely, that prices could even rise a bit, no one can predict the future economy with perfect accuracy.

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