Delivery Date?

[Humbleyogiwarrior]

I was surfing Tesla's home page and clicked on Vehicles and Cybertruck; then I clicked on Order. Under Reserve Now, you have three order options. Can anyone explain to me why it states Delivery 2024 for the all-wheel and the cyberbeast if there are currently over 2,000,000 reservations ahead of placing an order today? What am I missing?

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[Jager]

Poor wording on Tesla's part. It probably means those trims will be shipping in 2024, not your specific vehicle.

If a new-today customer can order a Cybertruck and have it delivered in 2024 it means that the conversion rate of those 2m reservations has fallen off a cliff.

 

[Darth abbott]

I was surfing Tesla's home page and clicked on Vehicles and Cybertruck; then I clicked on Order. Under Reserve Now, you have three order options. Can anyone explain to me why it states Delivery 2024 for the all-wheel and the cyberbeast if there are currently over 2,000,000 reservations ahead of placing an order today? What am I missing?

Just really poor wording by Tesla. It means that they're shipping this year not that yours will be shipping this year or next year whether you're out of that whether you're after that and so on.

 

[dLux]

Poor wording on Tesla's part. It probably means those trims will be shipping in 2024, not your specific vehicle.

I don't think it's poor wording, I think Tesla expects that many cancellations, because price is a huge factor (~25 times more Model 3/Y sold in Q4 2023 compared to S/X). I expect ~90% cancellations., that brings it down to 200k, which is a reasonable yearly production rate. Probably Tesla expects even more cancellations than that, given that during ramp up, they won't be able to produce 200k cars per year.

So I think they reasonably believe in those dates. My guess is that if you order an AWD or Beast, you'll likely get it in 2025, RWD is probably 2026.

 

[Alan]

That’s ridiculous. Don’t just make stuff up there’s people who will believe you know what you’re talking about.

 

[bertley82]

I don't think it's poor wording, I think Tesla expects that many cancellations, because price is a huge factor (~25 times more Model 3/Y sold in Q4 2023 compared to S/X). I expect ~90% cancellations., that brings it down to 200k, which is a reasonable yearly production rate. Probably Tesla expects even more cancellations than that, given that during ramp up, they won't be able to produce 200k cars per year.

So I think they reasonably believe in those dates. My guess is that if you order an AWD or Beast, you'll likely get it in 2025, RWD is probably 2026.

This reply is insane. Please don’t believe everything you read. If you reserve today, I can’t imagine you would get it sooner than late 2025, if you’re lucky.

 

[dLux]

This reply is insane. Please don’t believe everything you read. If you reserve today, I can’t imagine you would get it sooner than late 2025, if you’re lucky.

Why insane? It is exactly what I've said.

 

[Arctic_White]

Why insane? It is exactly what I've said.

Your point makes no sense about anticipated cancellations because since the unveil, Tesla has received 10K new pre-orders per week!

So sure, some (many?) of the early reservation holders may cancel or not order, but there are likely new orders coming in to offset that.

I really doubt that any one who orders now gets a new Cybertruck until 2026 at the earliest. And this assumes 70%+ cancellations.

 

[dLux]

Your point makes no sense about anticipated cancellations because since the unveil, Tesla has received 10K new pre-orders per week!

So sure, some (many?) of the early reservation holders may cancel or not order, but there are likely new orders coming in to offset that.

I really doubt that any one who orders now gets a new Cybertruck until 2026 at the earliest. And this assumes 70%+ cancellations.

Well, the reservation page is the same since launch, I doubt that they care about updating it (the other order pages are likely wired up to the production estimation system, but I doubt that the CT order page is set up for that yet). So I believe they expected ~90-95% cancellations at release and that's why they wrote AWD+Beast in 2024, RWD in 2025. I think that's the story behind the current 2024 and 2025 numbers.

There is probably a very small team working on the CT and if something goes wrong with the cash cows (M3 and MY), that team is probably going to get pulled in to that.

I believe the small team just don't have time for anything, like updating the CT order page and things like that. They are eventually get there and will wire up to a real-life delivery system, but currently it's just some text in the page that was put there at launch.

I don't blame them, I'm pretty sure there are quite a few steps to ramp up a production line.

I don't know about the 10k/week orders, where is that info come from? My last info is from the Jay Leno interview (AFAIR) where Franz mentioned the 2M preorders.

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