Do you think CT prices will go up after FS?

[Cybertruck2024]

Good points! What’s your take on CyberBeast? Do you think they might have different pricing strategy for Beast post FS? btw, demand for Hummer might not be the same as CT after couple of years, and most high end trucks do cost 80K to 100K, and comparing CT to other Tesla vehicles is not a fair comparison.

I think they have the pricing tiers just right at 60/80/100. I don't feel like these numbers need to change for a while, these are perfect. It doesn't take a crystal ball to see the future of the CT, rather we just need to look at Tesla's past.

- Sell through FS demand, presumably through year-end.

- Beast will be on the line for the end of FS. Jump the standard pricing line by ordering a non-FS Beast.

- Next up is non-AWD FS. Want to get a little line boost? Add FSD.

- Next comes a small run of RWD, gets some positive press.

- The final lever is a price cut on Beast and AWD. I assume a 89k Beast has higher margin than AWD/RWD. I assume then a 75k AWD (NOW ONLY $68K AFTER REBATE!) has higher margin than RWD.

The above should get us through 3 years of CT. Then the whispers of a refresh will start for 2027.

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[Cyber Man]

I think they have the pricing tiers just right at 60/80/100. I don't feel like these numbers need to change for a while, these are perfect. It doesn't take a crystal ball to see the future of the CT, rather we just need to look at Tesla's past.

- Sell through FS demand, presumably through year-end.

- Beast will be on the line for the end of FS. Jump the standard pricing line by ordering a non-FS Beast.

- Next up is non-AWD FS. Want to get a little line boost? Add FSD.

- Next comes a small run of RWD, gets some positive press.

- The final lever is a price cut on Beast and AWD. I assume a 89k Beast has higher margin than AWD/RWD. I assume then a 75k AWD (NOW ONLY $68K AFTER REBATE!) has higher margin than RWD.

The above should get us through 3 years of CT. Then the whispers of a refresh will start for 2027.

Very accurate prediction, especially the FS/non FS Beast/AWD/RWD phased approach. You are spot on. One element I would add to this is the demand variable. If CT demand continues to grow strongly, I do predict a minor price increase for Beast only (probably 5K to 8K).

 

[Cybertruck2024]

Very accurate prediction, especially the FS/non FS Beast/AWD/RWD phased approach. You are spot on. One element I would add to this is the demand variable. If CT demand continues to grow strongly, I do predict a minor price increase for Beast only (probably 5K to 8K).

Tesla has a tendency to do a few little $2k-$3k adjustments over time, I absolutely agree a few of these happen during the CT life cycle, some up and some down. The beauty of a $3k increase is that the return to $3k less seems like a sale! Tesla doesn't need marketing, because they do these small things that get people talking.

Overall I stand by my CT life cycle expectations, but your point on minor adjustments is also spot on.

 

[Cyber Man]

Tesla has a tendency to do a few little $2k-$3k adjustments over time, I absolutely agree a few of these happen during the CT life cycle, some up and some down. The beauty of a $3k increase is that the return to $3k less seems like a sale! Tesla doesn't need marketing, because they do these small things that get people talking.

Overall I stand by my CT life cycle expectations, but your point on minor adjustments is also spot on.

I agree!

They won’t hold back from milking on the demand for the Beast. They might not adjust AWD because of the tax credit or do 3K increase as you said and then offer discounts to get buyers excited!

I also stand by your prediction. This is probably the most accurate one I have seen so far. Let’s revisit our prophecy after a year or so.

 

[Dirt Worker]

A message to every person who mentioned price increase. Stop it. These are read by the bean counters and stock holders. It was no surprise that we wouldn't get a tri-motor for 69,900 but it was a gut punch when it was 100k. I blame these people for encouraging this. We didn't get 500 mile range, extended tail gate or even the 14,000 tow rating. We get less and pay more than inflation occurred. If they raise the price one more penny, I'm done. 44,001st guy? cross your fingers. You may get your truck a day early.

 

[Cyber Man]

A message to every person who mentioned price increase. Stop it. These are read by the bean counters and stock holders. It was no surprise that we wouldn't get a tri-motor for 69,900 but it was a gut punch when it was 100k. I blame these people for encouraging this. We didn't get 500 mile range, extended tail gate or even the 14,000 tow rating. We get less and pay more than inflation occurred. If they raise the price one more penny, I'm done. 44,001st guy? cross your fingers. You may get your truck a day early.

lol, I hear you. None of us want CT prices to increase. The vote is to predict and not what we want. There is difference between wishful thinking and predicting based on data and trend. I don’t think Elon or Tesla will give a F about 100 people voting on what they predict CT prices after FS. They have smart MBA guys strategically deciding based on all sorts of real world data from various avenues, and our predictions here will matter the least. We are just taking a blind shot on what might happen to prices post FS. If you rephrase the question and ask “how many here want CT prices to increase”, you will get 100% No, starting with me!

If you really want to blame someone for increased prices, then blame those who are willing to pay above MSRP for CT. Their demand convinces Tesla to not lower the price. Just like when you sell a home, you only need two people to bid on each other to pay the highest. Rest doesn’t count.

 

[CyberTruckeeTheOne]

A message to every person who mentioned price increase. Stop it. These are read by the bean counters and stock holders. It was no surprise that we wouldn't get a tri-motor for 69,900 but it was a gut punch when it was 100k. I blame these people for encouraging this. We didn't get 500 mile range, extended tail gate or even the 14,000 tow rating. We get less and pay more than inflation occurred. If they raise the price one more penny, I'm done. 44,001st guy? cross your fingers. You may get your truck a day early.

Bean counter and stockholder here.

Tesla's stock price has been on tbe dog house for a long time and margins have been going down.

CT as Elon himself admitted is a loss leader and scale to make it profitable may not even come 2 years out.

So only direction is price increase which can only be held if there is a weak demand and uptake post FS.

And yes, you dropping out from the 2 million reservation will not be a blip in their radar.

 

[Spacenoddle]

Bean counter and stockholder here.

Tesla's stock price has been on tbe dog house for a long time and margins have been going down.

CT as Elon himself admitted is a loss leader and scale to make it profitable may not even come 2 years out.

So only direction is price increase which can only be held if there is a weak demand and uptake post FS.

And yes, you dropping out from the 2 million reservation will not be a blip in their radar.

I truely believe elon said they dug their own grave with the cybertruck, what i curious about see how they dig themselves out.

 

[Late_Refustration]

Ford sold maybe 35-36k f150 lightnings, to date. Right now they’re discounted up to $20k depending on the trim. I think rivian produced a total of 85k vehicles, including their SUVs. No backlog anymore.
Rivians were selling for over $100k during the peak of the demand about a year and a half ago. Ford’s Farley was quoted that he watched each and every bringatrailer and carsandbids auction to see how much his EV trucks sell for.

Those days are gone. Fast forward and neither rivian nor ford have a backlog of orders right now.

If / when the production on the cybertruck passes the 25k mark, it is feasible to assume that prices will decrease. I think by the time production has passed 50k units, you’ll see them on the lots.

 

[CyberTruckeeTheOne]

I truely believe elon said they dug their own grave with the cybertruck, what i curious about see how they dig themselves out.

Scale

 

[Spacenoddle]

Ford sold maybe 35-36k f150 lightnings, to date. Right now they’re discounted up to $20k instances. I think rivian produced a total of 85k vehicles, including their SUVs.
Rivians were selling for over $100k during the peak of the demand about a year and a half ago. Those days are gone. Fast forward and neither rivian nor ford have a backlog of orders right now.

If / when the production on the cybertruck passes the 25k mark, it is feasible to assume that prices will decrease. I think by the time production has passed 50k units, you’ll see them on the lots.

The difference is who buying lightning or rivian are true traditional truck guys ( those are true trucks). CT is not a traditional truck. You better call it full size SUV with truck capacity. So not much comparison between them, they are not even target the same customer base.

 

[Late_Refustration]

The difference is who buying lightning or rivian are true traditional truck guys ( those are true trucks). CT is not a traditional truck. You better call it full size SUV with truck capacity. So not much comparison between them, they are not even target the same customer base.

As far as truck things, I am not sure the cybertruck is more or less capable than rivian or ford. It looks different. Sure, but all three are tailored to the same customer base. Spare me the off-road / camping stuff.

I am still waiting on mine, I just do not think it is feasible to assume prices will go up on EVs.

In my opinion, whenever production volume passes 50k units, demand will disappear. That is assuming the economy holds.

 

[Cyber Man]

Sure, but all three are tailored to the same customer base.

I think CT customer base will be more than EV truck customers from Rivian or Ford. Even non truck users like CT. I don’t want to use Kim Kardashian as an example, but I never thought she would buy a pickup truck in my wildest dreams. CT has created a new segment of customer base. I strongly believe in that.

Also, I’m not convinced that CT sales prediction can be compared with Ford/Rivian sales prediction, at least based on current trends. Even after several months of unveiling, people are still crazy to take selfies and videos of Cybertruck. I don’t think Rivian or Ford generated this much attention. Please don’t give me the new vehicle hype thingy. People knew that this was coming since 4 years. So it’s not a big surprise for many.

 

[CarMan ElecTruck]

I predict soon the only Teslas which will be eligible for incentives… AWD CT, performance 3 and Y… and strategic Dual X…

 

[Trbizwiz]

Tesla has shown us how this works with other models. The best example is Model Y in 2021 and 2022. You could order performance and get it in 6 weeks, and you could order AWD and get it in 6 to 7 months.
I think FS will continue to be offered even when non FS trucks are offered. But FS deliveries will get delivered sooner. I think in the current configuration, Beast would out sell AWD, if FS were not a factor. So Beast does not carry enough premium to offset demand.
As demand ramps, we will see the offerings and pricing change. When production is higher than the acceptance rate of FS, non FS trucks will begin to be offered. I would guess a run rate of 1000 trucks per week could cause this to start to happen. We are seeing more and more 4 year res holders not wanting to convert their order. I think the % of 1st month res holders are more likely to be willing to take FS, than those that came in years later. I do think some of the later res holders will take FS, but it will be a significantly lower take rate.
I would not be surprised if Beast has required FS longer than AWD. But Beast will get delivered much faster. As a share holder, this is the strategy I hope they employ. 100,000 FS trucks adds $2 billion in earnings to the bottom line, just for the FS option alone. Not to mention the the gross profit of the truck sale. I am guessing that is at least another $20K. A limited production Cybertruck could present $4 billion in revenue by 2025, and $12 billion by 2026. As a share holder, I hope Beast is stuck with FS, until all reservations are offered the opportunity to order, and all orders are filled. This will also be better for Beast buyers. They wont suffer the massive depreciation as Plaid buyers have, at least not for the next 3 or 4 years. Lets face it, it may not cost Tesla much more to build beast. But its still a solid value at $120K, when compared to other ultra high performance trucks, priced similarly, which aren't even EV.
Maybe as a concession to early FS buyers, they drop the FS designation for Beast, but only offer it fully optioned, and they net price is virtually the same. Since Tesla employs dynamic pricing, it wont be hard for them to do this.
Selfishly, I want my first Cybertruck to qualify for the fed tax credit. But if my shares are valued at $500 or more per share, when my second reservation gets converted to an order, I'll happily option it as a Beast, even at Foundation prices.

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