How do you think further deliveries will happen?

[VR Driving]

Tesla seems to be very confident with the ramp with the recent successful ramp of the highland in a very short amount of time. I have a feeling that Tesla will be able to clear the actual converting AWD and Beast reservation by the end of 2024.

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[Arctic_White]

zero clue - too many factors at play, not least of which is this is Tesla we're talking about


i don't have one of the lowest numbers, but i do live in Austin, but i dont have prior Tesla buying history, etc., etc., etc.

Meanwhile, ramp, how they implement the line, etc.

I'm sanguine about all that because I'm in a fortunate position of meanwhile having a Lightning at original MSRP and early 2022 interest rates

putting off a little bit the discussion with my wife doesn't bother me, either

Ahh, that's fortunate. Lucky, even!

Would you pay $80K for the dual-motor Cybertruck? Or $100K+ for the Cyberbeast? Which trim did you order?

Do you think Tesla would lower its prices once the demand dies down? Do you think the demand will die down after a few years? I like your take on things as they are different than mine, thus these questions.

 

[DWTango]

Need to distinguish between these 1,000 Foundation limited edition series they're currently building and selling, vs when they make it to actual "Production" (e.g., Job#1 of retail spec'd unit offered to gen pop on an arms-length basis).

FOUNDATION SERIES:

These Foundation series are essentially marketing units, where regs and corporate financials are concerned, which means Tesla can 'sell' them, but not trigger the various regulatory and corporate consequences of begining true production.​

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The Foundation units units will be offered only to people that Telsa 'hand selects.' The delivery event units were primarily to employees, VIPs, and conceivably some reservation holders that were, e.g., reservation #1 and have e.g., bought 2 each of every prior Tesla going back to the original roadster. In any event, to receive one of these first ~20-30 Foundation units, you're probably on extra unique sales terms, NDAs, etc., all aside from paying a premium 'special edition' price.​

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The next ~970ish Foundation units would similarly go to hand-selected people (e.g., Tesla isn't, and probably can't, simply offer them to the general public without going afoul of optics regarding retail sales). But here, they likely go a bit deeper into the 'special people' pool, perhaps less onerous NDA-like terms, but still the premium limited-edition pricing.​

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Based on what we know about current production numbers, it could take Tesla several more months to get through building these first 1,000 foundation units. They may only get through building say 150-200 of these Foundation units in 2023.​

TRUE PRODUCTION

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Only after all that, when they're squarely into 2024, would true 'Production' begin. Beginning production, and making the initial offer of true arms-length retail offers to the general public, triggers various corporate financial consequences on Tesla's balance sheets.​

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Personally, I would be equally surprised if true production begins in Q1 as if it instead begins in Q2.​

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In part because I think the xwitter verse of fanboi's have gone way out over their ski's in terms of hyping expectations of how close Tesla is to beginning true production. Some have been exclaiming production started back in July, and now they're saying production has started now-ish, and bellowing about how configuration will open any minute now and Tesla may deliver 1,000 retail units before year end.​

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It's asinine.​

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And to think it's asinine has nothing to do with under-estimating Tesla. This is standard pre-production start up sort of pace even for Tesla, much less very fast for any other OEM (for better and for worse). In the past, it's been as much as 4 months between a Tesla model's delivery event and start of true production - and those models didn't have 1,000 Foundation units to get through first.​

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This sort of pragmatism about how long it could be until first production comes not from under-estimating Tesla, but instead from appreciating just how much work Tesla has done and still has to do before it can begin pumping out the volume of retail units needed to make sense for beginning production. In other words, in my view, this pragmatism is the view that *actually* gives Tesla it's due regarding how much it is accomplishing in a short period of time.​

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Last thought on something touched on above: while it's possible Tesla could begin retail sales after only a slow drip of retail spec'd units are being produced, that would be unperformable all-things-considered. Generally, more preferrable would be to have a sufficient stock built up, and production to have reached some min threshold of run rate, before beginning retail sales. The reason, in fine, is that the moment Tesla begins retail sales all the historical production expenses of the Cybertruck (e.g., building the line, etc.) will hit Tesla's balance sheet as a negative number. During whatever calendar quarter that occurs, you want to be able to produce and deliver enough units to both (A) bring in revenue from unit sales that somewhat offset the balance sheet with, and (B) on that next quarterly call say "the numbers look like they do because we realized production on the balance sheet, but look how many of these we're selling already, so we'll offset and recoup that figure soon"​

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TAKING THE ABOVE DISTINCTION INTO ACCOUNT:

So, in 2023 (and beyond the delivery event Foundation units), some small group of folks will get to purchase a Foundation unit, but those will be hand-selected folks who are able and willing to purchase the Foundation units at the Foundation premium pricing (~$20K premium over normal retail prices). And into early 2024, the rest of these 1,000 folks will get to configure and purchase their special editions.​

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But as for us plebians, it is likely several months before retail deliveries begin - even if Tesla opens up configuration sooner.​

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It's Tesla, so it's always possible they have some countervailing reasons to begin sooner than should be expected - or trickle out only a few retail units before production has ramped to sufficient volumes.​

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But in terms of expectation-setting, folks should be looking to be happily surprised for earlier retail deliveries, as opposed to buying into the xwitter claptrap about retail deliveries starting a week ago.​

Thanks for your very pragmatic thoughts - I think you are spot on. Much appreciated.

 

[VR Driving]

less than 1% of the reservation holders will have a chance to take delivery in 2024. So IMO it really doesn't matter as 99% of the reservation holders won't be able to get a truck until 2025 at the earliest.

 

[cvalue13]

Would you pay $80K for the dual-motor Cybertruck? Or $100K+ for the Cyberbeast? Which trim did you order?

Even back in 2019, I put in for the dual motor. My use case for a truck simply didn't require 3/4 ton capabilities, nor do I personally feel a need for a 7K lb truck that can go dummy fast in a straight line.

And now, it sure doesn't require (mostly) just that straight-line speed.

I don't begrudge anyone for that sort of YOLO approach to the CT, it's just not where I am. (I would be more likely to instead buy a legit sports car, that can also go fast in corners, brake well, etc.)



As for whether I'd pay 80K for the now AWD, the answer is both "yes" and "maybe"

The answer is "yes," if you mean, objectively, would I pay 80K for the AWD and what it offers.

The answer is "maybe," if you mean given my practical reality (and unique position) of having a Lightning I really like at 2022MSRP/interest rates.



Which is all to say, if I didn't already have a really good BEV truck and the CT was my first opportunity at it, I can prove that I'd be sure to buy one by pointing to the Lightning I already bought.

But because I have the Lightning, my personal decision-making will be necessarily a bit more nuanced. The CT will have to prove out it's value the next several months of independent tests, etc., to make it a remotely reasonable buying decision given interest rates, etc. (Plus, no surprise, I've taken a depreciation bath on the Lightning.)

For me, I can't make that decision until my number gets pulled and I'm looking at the order sheet. To many variable can change between now and then, and I'll just try and remain education up to that point.

Money were no object, I'd both keep the Lightning AND buy the Cybertruck AWD (then also a 911 GT3)

Do you think Tesla would lower its prices once the demand dies down? Do you think the demand will die down after a few years? I like your take on things as they are different than mine, thus these questions.

I have no doubt that Tesla's plan is to be able to produce these in volumes that allows them to reduce the purchase price. E.g., at ~200K units/yr, with the line running efficiently, they can change market price position.

Meanwhile, I don't expect (happy to be surprised~) that PP will move materially in some big, near-term, step-change downward.

So the unknown is how long before Tesla has the line running efficiently and pumping enough out.

Here, today, I don't think Tesla has a clue. Aspirations and expectations, yes. But they're in the meat of it right now, too many variables left to sort out before anyone would stake their career on a timeline.



These are just my operating principles and assumptions at present, though - here because they've been incrementally formed by the insight of others, and will continue to be.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

How do you all think the deliveries will be handled going forward from the delivery event?

few things on my mind:

Mass email to "Next 5,000" reservation holders?

or

individual emails to reservation holders when their truck is ready?

Would we pick up at the local dealer? or pick up in Texas?

Curious about the above for the people that have ordered teslas in the past and has knowledge of the process.

I’d be happy just seeing the ramp begin. It looks to me as though they have either stopped building Cybertrucks or are still building them by hand.

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