Estimator that accounts for other statistics?

[truck]

I’ve heard about a multitude of statistics that influence your place in line to get the truck. I’m using the estimator on abettertheater and it only asks for what model you reserved. I don’t care about accuracy, I just want something that’ll give me an estimate for at least this year lmao.
Some stats:
RN: 113182XXX
Reserved on: 12/21/19
Location: Dallas, Texas
Teslas owned: 2
Addtl ftrs: FSD, Tri-Motor AWD

If there’s anything else that could possibly influence priority, please tell me and I’ll include it.

Tl;Dr: I want an estimator that’ll help me cope with my est 2026 delivery date.

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[Celiboy]

Sorry, there’s nothing that will influence it unfortunately. There’s folks who the Cybertruck is their first and only Tesla purchase who got an invitation to those who have stock, multiple cars, solar panels, and power walls that got invitations. There’s also those who have all those things who haven’t received an invitation. It’s pretty random for the most part. Kinda like winning the lottery. You buy your ticket and hope your numbers get called. Good luck.

 

[L3it3R]

It’s completely ‘random’.
Two teslas, both FSD, pre-ordered my CT w/FSD the literal moment they were live, Foundation Series AWD ordered the 28th of December… complete silence since then.

 

[truck]

Sorry, there’s nothing that will influence it unfortunately. There’s folks who the Cybertruck is their first and only Tesla purchase who got an invitation to those who have stock, multiple cars, solar panels, and power walls that got invitations. There’s also those who have all those things who haven’t received an invitation. It’s pretty random for the most part. Kinda like winning the lottery. You buy your ticket and hope your numbers get called. Good luck.

Ughhh, it’s so hard waiting for this truck. I just want to get it before the free supercharging transfer deal ends as I have a model s with unlimited charging. I’m so ready to get rid of it as it’s a 2015 model and is highly outdated.

 

[Celiboy]

Ughhh, it’s so hard waiting for this truck. I just want to get it before the free supercharging transfer deal ends as I have a model s with unlimited charging. I’m so ready to get rid of it as it’s a 2015 model and is highly outdated.

I feel you. They can’t come fast enough. I had a 2014 MS with the free lifetime supercharging but we traded it in on our MY before the transfers were allowed.

 

[jookyone]

I just want to get it before the free supercharging transfer deal ends as I have a model s with unlimited charging.

All Tesla vehicles except Cybertruck are eligible for the new offer.

 

[Ward L]

I don't agree with it being random. Your original reservation date and place in line set when you received the email to order the FSCT. I had reservation number 43k, I got an email on 12/8 offering me a FSCT. I'm guessing the first 50k original reservations got the email to order. The date you ordered the FSCT sets the general delivery date of the FSCT. I didn't place an order a FSCT until 12/31 (Yes, big mistake!). I have not heard any VIN/delivery info yet because it is all based on my 12/31 order date. Many people that ordered on 12/8-9 and now one on 12/15, have received their FSCT. If you don't order a FSCT, then you wait until ALL the FSCT orders are filled. I believe Tesla will start notifying customers to configure their regular CT or CB by their original reservation number after all FSCT are produced and production is stopped. Of course, there are exceptions and deliveries that appear to be out of order. I believe this is generally how CT are being sold and delivered. My two cents....

 

[truck]

All Tesla vehicles except Cybertruck are eligible for the new offer.

Where does it say that?

 

[jookyone]

Where does it say that?

The story broke from an unofficial "spokesperson" Sawyer Merritt and I don't think Tesla has an official landing page for it, but the previous offer was for everything but Model 3, now includes Model 3 (so valid on S/3/X/Y) and the same person that broke the news said this:

 

[cgladue]

its not random, CA, TX and now FL are the first states, if you arent in those 3 then you will wait longer then someone in those states. how much longer ? who knows when will you get a VIN ? who knows

 

[mfg310]

I don't agree with it being random. Your original reservation date and place in line set when you received the email to order the FSCT. I had reservation number 43k, I got an email on 12/8 offering me a FSCT. I'm guessing the first 50k original reservations got the email to order. The date you ordered the FSCT sets the general delivery date of the FSCT. I didn't place an order a FSCT until 12/31 (Yes, big mistake!). I have not heard any VIN/delivery info yet because it is all based on my 12/31 order date. Many people that ordered on 12/8-9 and now one on 12/15, have received their FSCT. If you don't order a FSCT, then you wait until ALL the FSCT orders are filled. I believe Tesla will start notifying customers to configure their regular CT or CB by their original reservation number after all FSCT are produced and production is stopped. Of course, there are exceptions and deliveries that appear to be out of order. I believe this is generally how CT are being sold and delivered. My two cents....

Several issues with this. Using the delivered list as a basis, it appears they have offered people the chance to order from the first 110,000 reservations or so. Second, everyone that was offered a chance to order was not done so in the order they reserved, nor have VINs necessarily being assigned on the basis of when you ordered. There are TONS of people who ordered on 12/8 -12/9 who have no VINs yet while some who ordered on 12/15 and 12/19 already have their CT. So it not nearly as simple as you make it out to be.

 

[Woodrick]

It’s completely ‘random’.
Two teslas, both FSD, pre-ordered my CT w/FSD the literal moment they were live, Foundation Series AWD ordered the 28th of December… complete silence since then.

That's not random, that's the one Cybertruck per user that seems to be enforced at this time.

 

[Ward L]

Several issues with this. Using the delivered list as a basis, it appears they have offered people the chance to order from the first 110,000 reservations or so. Second, everyone that was offered a chance to order was not done so in the order they reserved, nor have VINs necessarily being assigned on the basis of when you ordered. There are TONS of people who ordered on 12/8 -12/9 who have no VINs yet while some who ordered on 12/15 and 12/19 already have their CT. So it not nearly as simple as you make it out to be.

Eh, close enough. It isn't random. We just don't know the process. What I've outlined is close enough for me. You can take it or leave it....

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