EV “small battery” quickness betters Big LiON battery…

[rr6013]

Battery news reports battery makers see BEV mfgrs building different vehicles than LiON. Top of the list is RANGE – Consumer’s #1 purchase anxiety. Next LiON CHARGING time, availability and demand are critical already. Lastly, CHEMISTRY, raw ingredients, which LiON battery makers are currently hostage to China. The report major focus is TIME.
The unique takeaway from the report is its combination of all three battery friction points impact on future BEV. It’s thesis is “small battery” plays increasingly larger role as charging TIME competition approaches filling a car’s gas tank. The driver behind small battery being increasing market size and the demand for affordable BEV.
Its conclusion is that different, better CHEMISTRY; more affordable, faster CHARGING battery enables SMALL battery for different, better priced cars where RANGE is conquered by a quick charge TIME.
Small battery looks like Charger networks become the new filling station. Profit moves off the car to Chargers. People drive matchbox EV’s, travel mass transport or add BIG battery swap packs onto an undersized battery EV they use daily when they need to travel longer distances. I’m not so sure…

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[Jhodgesatmb]

As per usual I believe that market analysts don't know what they are talking about. The anxieties you speak of are real, but charging at home alleviates any non-trip anxiety (if you don't mind charging most every day) and what you mentioned didn't address at-home charging. Second, a small battery can be used for all non-trip scenarios 'as long as' you can use the full battery range on a daily basis. As long as we are limited to using 60% of the battery range, and as long as people prefer to 'fill' their car a couple days a week, the small battery will not be a viable answer. For example, my Model Y has a stated range of about 320 miles. I charge to 260 at home and I have to get back home by the time I am at around 70 miles, leaving me 190 miles to use. My daily 'commute is about 50 miles, but with dog mode/AC on it I am using more like 70-80 miles a day. So I have to charge every other day or 3-4 days a week. If, for example (total guess), a 4680 pack would allow me to use 90% of the battery on a daily basis, then I would have more like 260 miles to work with and then I would only have to charge (at home) every 3 days. Still not twice a week and that is for a pack that is the same size.

Where charging time becomes an issue is when you have multiple vehicles per charger or when you are going on a trip. But even then people generally want to drive for 4 hours before stopping and that is 250 (60 mph) - 300 miles (at 70 mph). Even starting with a full battery and driving to 10% the current 75 KwH pack only barely makes this range. A recent report showed an Austin Model Y DM getting a full charge in an hour, so few will be willing to get a full charge which will limit their driving range after the first (full) fill. That said, a 600-mile day is a good amount in my view.

So, given these considerations, I would say that the small battery idea is probably at least a battery design generation away from reality, and that is for a high-volume solution and not a research solution. The next generation of batteries is probably 5-10 years out.

 

[Zabhawkin]

Its going to depend on if you are limited by the charger or by the battery. If the charger is able to supply enough power to max the larger pack then the smaller pack will go up with the same % charged rate as the larger pack while the larger pack will get more miles per hour charge rate. If its limited by the charger then the smaller pack will be fully charged faster though at the same miles per hour gained.

Yes the smaller pack leading to a less expensive car is a good point and shouldn't be dismissed.

 

[Tinker71]

Battery news reports battery makers see BEV mfgrs building different vehicles than LiON. Top of the list is RANGE – Consumer’s #1 purchase anxiety. Next LiON CHARGING time, availability and demand are critical already. Lastly, CHEMISTRY, raw ingredients, which LiON battery makers are currently hostage to China. The report major focus is TIME.
The unique takeaway from the report is its combination of all three battery friction points impact on future BEV. It’s thesis is “small battery” plays increasingly larger role as charging TIME competition approaches filling a car’s gas tank. The driver behind small battery being increasing market size and the demand for affordable BEV.
Its conclusion is that different, better CHEMISTRY; more affordable, faster CHARGING battery enables SMALL battery for different, better priced cars where RANGE is conquered by a quick charge TIME.
Small battery looks like Charger networks become the new filling station. Profit moves off the car to Chargers. People drive matchbox EV’s, travel mass transport or add BIG battery swap packs onto an undersized battery EV they use daily when they need to travel longer distances. I’m not so sure…

This makes sense with cars. Trucks not so much.

Charging with a trailer or crew of people on the clock will suck for contractors or serious family vacations. Time is money.

A commuter can handle a small battery.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Its going to depend on if you are limited by the charger or by the battery. If the charger is able to supply enough power to max the larger pack then the smaller pack will go up with the same % charged rate as the larger pack while the larger pack will get more miles per hour charge rate. If its limited by the charger then the smaller pack will be fully charged faster though at the same miles per hour gained.

Yes the smaller pack leading to a less expensive car is a good point and shouldn't be dismissed.

All batteries are charged dynamically, so even a small battery's charge rate is throttled as it nears full SOC. I do not know how long it takes to charge smaller batteries of the same type and manufacturer but I bet that information is out there somewhere.

 

[Zabhawkin]

All batteries are charged dynamically, so even a small battery's charge rate is throttled as it nears full SOC. I do not know how long it takes to charge smaller batteries of the same type and manufacturer but I bet that information is out there somewhere.

How much power you can charge a battery (of the same chemestry etc) at is based on the battery capacity and at max rate including tapering down both battery sizes will charge in the same amount of time.

For example a battery with 1 amphour of capacity being charged at 2 amps is being charged at a rate of 2c if it was being charged at 1 amp the rate would be 1c.

So in the case of a 100kwh 400volt battery pack vs a 50kwh 400volt battery pack both for this example with the same battery type and same manufacturer can be charged at a rate up to 2c to 80% then drops to 1c and at 90% drops to 0.1c.

The 100kwh battery would start at 200kw then drop to 100kw at 80% then do 10kw at 90%.
The 50kwh battery would start at 100kw then drop to 50kw then 5kw.

 

[Crissa]

Niobium currently costs twice what Nickel does.

I don't know how much is in their batteries, but it's not what I think of when I think 'cheap battery metal'.

-Crissa

 

[rr6013]

The less I drive, the more small battery doesn't bother my Range anxiety. But if I love my small battery EV, I want to drive it. Especially, for roadtrips, I don’t want to suck chargers out and back the whole distance. SO battery SWAP where you add battery or change a small for a large batterypack starts to become a viable use case.

However, I don’t love the BEV I own, regardless battery size, Swap or adding a battery — I’m OK taking a plane, train or bus to relax and leave the driving, parking and navigating to someone else. I’d leave small battery EV in the garage.

BUT if the EV industry just replaces gas pumps with chargers? Then the incentive is there to profit center the charger lots. I would pushback on repeating history by duplicating the gas station model. Gas stations made 2% max. on fuel. All the profit was made in fuel transport ~7%. So the industry profited while station operators had to sell candy and Cokes to earn profit. Tesla charger network seemed the perfect “no hassle” self-serve charge experience.

At the end of the day, small battery forces charger ubiquity at full scale industry adoption. Yet…who protests when they own a $20k brand new Tesla Cybertruck that only needs charged every night?

Argh…

 

[charliemagpie]

I think swap stations make some sense for communities living in high rise buildings as far as the eye can see.

Of course, maybe Japan, with 120 million on an Island. That may be affordable to cover.

 

[Tinker71]

The less I drive, the more small battery doesn't bother my Range anxiety. But if I love my small battery EV, I want to drive it. Especially, for roadtrips, I don’t want to suck chargers out and back the whole distance. SO battery SWAP where you add battery or change a small for a large batterypack starts to become a viable use case.

However, I don’t love the BEV I own, regardless battery size, Swap or adding a battery — I’m OK taking a plane, train or bus to relax and leave the driving, parking and navigating to someone else. I’d leave small battery EV in the garage.

BUT if the EV industry just replaces gas pumps with chargers? Then the incentive is there to profit center the charger lots. I would pushback on repeating history by duplicating the gas station model. Gas stations made 2% max. on fuel. All the profit was made in fuel transport ~7%. So the industry profited while station operators had to sell candy and Cokes to earn profit. Tesla charger network seemed the perfect “no hassle” self-serve charge experience.

At the end of the day, small battery forces charger ubiquity at full scale industry adoption. Yet…who protests when they own a $20k brand new Tesla Cybertruck that only needs charged every night?

Argh…

Working from home I don't drive much so I don't get gas too often. I still manage to grab something at the Maverick several days per week. Maverick is a gas station brand in Utah and spreading. They differentiated themselves by having really nice facilities and hot food. I think they will survive. I bet 70% of their customers don't even get gas. Many mostly gas stations will fail. For the retail owners I feel bad. What will happen to all those corner lots?

Big change is coming in the auto industry. I have had a ton of repair bills in the last couple months as I try to nurse my ICE vehicles to the finish line. I am not going to miss getting gouged by the dealer mechanics. As their business declines they are going to gouge the few remaining for everything they are worth. I had a muffler shop charge $586 to replace an $100 O2 sensor on Subaru. I was so tempted to tell him I will never buy a new ICE and his days are numbered.

The small battery commuter shouldn't rely on superchargers. A 120vac outlet should cover 80% of the miles. Assigned parking at apartments and townhomes could be modified fairly easily for this.

Massive deployment of level 2 chargers or even 120VAC outlets at work locations is what we need. If employee A can't charge at home and needs 30 miles per day of range they are assigned a 120VAC outlet if you need 80 miles per day you are assigned a Level 2 charge spot.

A charger grid management system might turn these off at peak energy times or some of them but somehow your minimum required charge is taken care of throughout your shift.

 

[firsttruck]

.....
Massive deployment of level 2 chargers or even 120VAC outlets at work locations is what we need. If employee A can't charge at home and needs 30 miles per day of range they are assigned a 120VAC outlet if you need 80 miles per day you are assigned a Level 2 charge spot.

A charger grid management system might turn these off at peak energy times or some of them but somehow your minimum required charge is taken care of throughout your shift.

Yes!!!

This is not talked about enough.

Most workers that commute to work do it during the day. Most hours of the work week these vehicle are sitting in sunlight.

The priority should not be home solar but should be solar at work.
Solar energy for the business computers, lights, A/C, work vehicles and employee vehicles. Employees take stored electrical energy to their homes which reduces the energy spikes the power company sees in the early evening.

I think the return on investment of the government solar subsidy would be greater and greater reduction in pollution (ICE to EVs).

This would also be much more fair to the 10s of millions of employees who live in apartments who right now pay a lot of taxes that then go to subsidize homeowners to buy solar & EVs with almost no opportunity for employees in apartments to participate.

 

[electricAK]

One nice thing about EV's is that (unlike ICE vehicles) they breed efficiency. Let's say the next battery breakthrough is very far out. Then in the meantime, the only way to reduce battery size (and therefore base cost) is to either A) make the vehicle consume less energy per mile, or B) Reduce the perceived *need* for range. Both of which create more efficiency for our grid and our society in one way or another because we are consuming less energy per person.

In short, I don't really care whether batteries get smaller over time, because I know that change will necessarily come with other changes that address the need for range (maybe we all work from home in the future, or the roads themselves become more efficient, or the traffic patterns become automated to reduce accelerations). Either way, life is only getting better thanks to EV's because they breed efficiency. Its pretty cool stuff and a total paradigm shift from the age of ICE vehicles.

 

[rr6013]

Next decade will be crazy, hard and brutal. A bifurcated world has just entered Uncanny Valley. USA political, population, and production are all at nexus with hot, emotional vested interests on both sides of GeoPolitical, Boomers.v.GenX, and Vertical Integration .vs. Offshore mfg.
@electricAK ”efficiency” argument techno-edgelording charging, PeakerVPP,and Opticaster load balances the GRID already. Potentials are real gains as measured in shuttering oil and coal electricity generation plants, keeping ERCOT heaters running and saving lives.
Regardless the efficiency, outside influences are driving impacts until Range matrix has a solution, Grid is hardened and Manufacturing re-homes where markets live.
The USA population is devoid of shared experience such as the Great Depression. It looks like Russia is going to fix that. A fix for the soul, concentrate the mind and rally the next Generation to the nation, state and freedom that makes technology at all possible in the first instance.
Small battery in ten years time looks much more doable, acceptable and stratified for a different world than now. Engineers, scientists and people who know about this world attest to EV’s tilting at windmills impossible expectation to obsolete ICE, Scuttle coal and gas plus expect raw materials to jump outta the ground into batteries in any reasonable timeframe. Decades out in 2040-2050 maybe…but until – its Uncanny Valley with petroleum carrying the heavy load, dislocation and economic collapse getting battery to work at scale.

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