Full Self-Driving Timeline Projections

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I think Elon and Tesla value their reputation. To breach trust from consumers for reduced FSD for early reservations would ruin Tesla's reputation in an unforgiving way. I'm confident that when we configure our CTs we'll receive the appropriate price. This issue is small potatoes.

The bigger issues are when will FSD be feature complete and when will Tesla Network be feasible.

Arguing over the FSD price you've secured is something like $7k vs $10k. Compared to FSD feature complete and Tesla Network is something like $0 per year and $30k per year.

I think some of you have lost the plot or you never knew there was a plot.

 

cybguy

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For those interested in providing their CT for the Tesla Network (robotaxi), a timeline that includes FSD completion by the end of this year might be ideal timing.
No one is going to have a CT or real FSD in the next couple years.
 

Ogre

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It’s a bit of a crap shoot.

One thing which makes it difficult to predict is machine learning doesn’t progress in a linear fashion. Sometimes it goes sideways, sometimes backwards, sometimes makes big leaps forwards.

Regulations are a whole other ball of wax, generally they just move backwards or sideways with occasional somewhat random hesitant steps forward.
 

Ogre

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For those interested in providing their CT for the Tesla Network (robotaxi), a timeline that includes FSD completion by the end of this year might be ideal timing.

FSD for Level 4 -> hands off in geo fences areas

Might happen by end of this year.

FSD for Level 5 -> hands off everywhere

Might never happen. We might get to a point where Level 4 covers 95% of paved roads, but there are just too many weird edge cases on that last 1-5%.

Robotaxi -> Car drives solo everywhere

Depends on regulations and will be very regional. This doesn’t actually need Level 5, just Level 4 for that 95% coverage. Might be available in a few cities within a few years, but I doubt we’ll see it widespread for at least 5-10 years.


Those stupid levels are pretty nearly worthless.
 


Ogre

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Then again, if your trimotor, dual motor and peasant motor are not options, FSD could be raised on a technicality.
I wish people would stop this nonsense.

“Maybe Elon will just give you a giant :poop: Burger… you NEVER KNOW Right!!”

What exactly does trotting around with these bugbears accomplish?

Tesla’s raised prices on FSD something like 5000 times and has never increased prices on existing orders/ pre-orders. BUT MAYBE…. MAYBE FOR YOU THEY WILL.


WHO KNOWS!?!?
 
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charliemagpie

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FSD 5 will be everywhere. It could go like this :

1. FSD could be accepted in 'geo fenced' areas , such as specific countries . i.e.. Saudi Arabia. It will spread, who know which direction. By state ? (USA doesn't need to be first adopter)

2. Eventually, the long tail of 99999999999’s will be so long, that the US legislators and other legislators around the world would have driven around for a couple of years without intervention.
In this condition… FSD 5 will be adopted by stealth... and rubber-stamped into officialdom because it's obvious to do so.

Even we have a hard time believing… In a couple of years, I don't think it's flicking a switch.. It will flow from approval district to approval district.
 

CyberGus

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We should get closer to L5 once Dojo starts crunching the numbers.

Keep in mind that Optimus needs L5 "full self-walking" to be truly autonomous, so the technology is a priority for Tesla.
 

ajdelange

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Given the performance of the current beta I think it obvious that FSD as a practical matter is years off. It is amazing what it can do and at the same time amazing what it can’t.

 

 
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