Seeking Full-Self Driving price chart

earthman

Well-known member
First Name
Mark
Joined
Aug 6, 2020
Threads
4
Messages
52
Reaction score
45
Location
Florida
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Occupation
Engineer
Country flag
So basically one of my biggest plays is reserving many Cybertrucks, and I've locked in a very low Full Self Driving price for each of them.

So now, Full Self Driving costs $12,000.

I am OK with the Cybertruck production delays, because it helps me reduce the risk by closing the gap between the day I purchase my Cybertrucks and the maturity date of the Full Self Driving software.

Is anyone else in this position? Anyone else making this play?

My goal is either to manage a fleet of roboTaxis (autonomous cargo haulers), or flip these vehicles for a healthy profit. Maybe $30,000-$60,000 per Cybertruck is my vague prediction.

So, right now I’ve built a rough prediction chart as a way of forecasting the price of Full Self Driving over time. Trying to predict where that FSD price will likely be by the time I purchase here in about a year and a half to two years.

So my guess right now is that if I purchase my Cybertruck in about 2 years, I expect roughly a $20k value of FSD, giving me around $10k of equity right out the gate.

Plus, robotaxi network may be activated in some places around that time, so it would be game on for generating income via active participation using my Cybertruck on the network.

Any help/thoughts/comments would be much welcome!

Here's what I have as rough predictions:

Tesla Cybertruck Seeking Full-Self Driving price chart EA0476D6-155A-468A-9339-84FDEDC8FB11
Sponsored

 
Last edited:

CyberGus

Well-known member
First Name
Gus
Joined
May 22, 2021
Threads
67
Messages
5,809
Reaction score
19,084
Location
Austin, TX
Website
www.timeanddate.com
Vehicles
1981 DeLorean, 2024 Cybertruck
Occupation
IT Specialist
Country flag
There's also the rental price, which is the same as the purchase price divided by 60. (Five years to parity)

-Crissa
The FSD subscription is monthly, and can be deactivated at will, so you don't neccessarily need to pay it every ponth.
 

SentinelOne

Well-known member
First Name
Jason
Joined
Dec 18, 2019
Threads
10
Messages
517
Reaction score
803
Location
Colorado
Vehicles
See Sig
Occupation
IT
Country flag
I ordered 2 CT's with FSD- one early and one mid pack - but I did it so I get a more updated one with the second CT and can then sell the first one, or following your optimism Robo taxi it out! (but im guessing at least 7 years, for Tesla to finish development (2-3 yrs) and then the govt to cert - 5 yrs)
 
OP
OP
earthman

earthman

Well-known member
First Name
Mark
Joined
Aug 6, 2020
Threads
4
Messages
52
Reaction score
45
Location
Florida
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Occupation
Engineer
Country flag
I ordered 2 CT's with FSD- one early and one mid pack - but I did it so I get a more updated one with the second CT and can then sell the first one, or following your optimism Robo taxi it out! (but im guessing at least 7 years, for Tesla to finish development (2-3 yrs) and then the govt to cert - 5 yrs)
makes sense. we're on the same page basically with a few minor differences. I think robotaxi is going to go live in small areas much sooner than 5 years. I think by end of 2023 (2 years). we should see it live somewhere like for example the boring tunnels. or some safe 'walled in' areas.

that's my guess. but I also like ur more sound, common sense, conservative numbers. I could also agree with those numbers. It's just that the exponential nature of these moving parts biases me toward sooner than later.

also, I like the 2 CT move. I did the same haha with a whole lot more. I bought 3 early and then a bunch after a year or so.

so I figure I'll get high quality ones because I'm around order number 100k for those 3.

and then I figure I'm around 1 million for my other orders a year later.

so basically the quality is high for the first 25k or so, then quality dips, then quality spikes again when the assembly line is operating at scale. which I estimate will be around # 600k or so.

so I may get burnt with low quality CTs in my first order of 3, but not a big deal to me.

worst case scenario they have a problem with welds/seams splitting on their structural 'exoskeleton' design. maybe that would be a disaster I don't know.

don't care either way. the play is lucrative any way u cut it as long as u stay on top of it and maximize. don't sleep on any issues that arise. u Gotta be aggressive. and it'll be a cash cow basically.
 


wattz

New member
First Name
Mark
Joined
Jan 24, 2022
Threads
0
Messages
1
Reaction score
1
Location
PA
Vehicles
Cybertruck (on order). 2018 Model S 100D
Occupation
USAF
Country flag
The problem with your math is that the early numbers of FSD are not correct. yes it was 5K to add FSD but you had to already pay 5K for Extended Autopilot. I do believe it was 3k in 2018 when I bought my model S if you bought it with the car or 4k if you wanted to upgrade later. So back then it was not 5K it was 5K + 3/4K so 8 or 9K back in 2018. Also I think there is going to be a limit on how much people will be willing to pay for the package so I don't see the number going up to 20K plus anytime soon.
 
OP
OP
earthman

earthman

Well-known member
First Name
Mark
Joined
Aug 6, 2020
Threads
4
Messages
52
Reaction score
45
Location
Florida
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Occupation
Engineer
Country flag
The problem with your math is that the early numbers of FSD are not correct. yes it was 5K to add FSD but you had to already pay 5K for Extended Autopilot. I do believe it was 3k in 2018 when I bought my model S if you bought it with the car or 4k if you wanted to upgrade later. So back then it was not 5K it was 5K + 3/4K so 8 or 9K back in 2018. Also I think there is going to be a limit on how much people will be willing to pay for the package so I don't see the number going up to 20K plus anytime soon.
yeah, I agree, there's a rough transition there around 2018 where advanced autopilot met FSD. I don't know how to update my curve to improve it. I'll leave it like it is for now. can't wait til the next FSD price bump. it'll really lend to defining that early part of the curve.
 

charliemagpie

Well-known member
First Name
Charlie
Joined
Jul 6, 2021
Threads
42
Messages
2,886
Reaction score
5,133
Location
Australia
Vehicles
CybrBEAST
Occupation
retired
Country flag
It is possible that FSD will stay cheap forever. Perhaps even less than today's monthly fee.

Various scenarios are in play.

It's the licence to incorporate it into the Tesla network and operate as a Robotaxi, which may be way more than the $12,000 today. Could be $100,000 outright, or $2000 a month.

It is also possible if you have full FSD your portion is 50% of the ride fee, whereas if you leased FSD and operate as Robotaxi your cut could be 25%.

Whichever the scenarios, owning FSD today, will be beneficial to you for the future.
Sponsored

 
 




Top