Future battery swaps

OP
OP
Tinker71

Tinker71

Well-known member
First Name
Ray
Joined
Aug 8, 2020
Threads
82
Messages
1,484
Reaction score
1,967
Location
Utah
Vehicles
1976 electric conversion bus
Occupation
Project Manager
Country flag
I foresee cars becoming more interactive with their environment and each other. As they do, they become more and more like smartphone and tablets. I kept my Samsung galaxy Note2 for eight years by replacing the battery which must be a record. In it’s final few years, there were many apps that I could no longer use because apps and operating system support dropped off at different times and they didn’t like to talk to each other any longer. In some cases I could not access my data. As Tesla which is a forward looking company will have more and more models, the cost and effort to maintain support for older ones will become harder to justify and may drop off at some point. As our EVs get older, the body and battery may last a million miles but the brain will become more irrelevant to the point that even government may require safety features in your vehicle that Tesla is unwilling to go back and add to the old models and you probably won’t have the knowledge and access to do it. At that point you will see more and more new cars with features that you want and your CT will look like the old noble prize winner that now have dementia. You will want to replace it with that personal Falcon 222 because you just have to have that hover feature for your off-road hobby. I should note that I got my crystal ball at a yard sale. Take all of this with a grain of salt.
You may be right, however I am banking that by shear volume of bodies produced plus the longevity of the body and drivetrain that a huge 3rd party will develop. I am surprised by the resiliency of the 3rd party guys like the Jeep/Mustang modifiers etc. and they are only offered for vehicles with runs of 10,000? We may have 1,000,000 CT bodies on the road in 10 years.

Baring a hover feature, with existing 95% efficiency on motors, I am not sure how much change we could really expect except the batteries and charging and brains in the next 20 years.
Sponsored

 
OP
OP
Tinker71

Tinker71

Well-known member
First Name
Ray
Joined
Aug 8, 2020
Threads
82
Messages
1,484
Reaction score
1,967
Location
Utah
Vehicles
1976 electric conversion bus
Occupation
Project Manager
Country flag
Say there is a massive improvement in battery tech in the next 6 years and some 3rd party could make a battery with 2x the density of current Tesla tech at sat $50 per kWh at the cell level Can anybody else envision grinding out /removing their existing Lion batteries and swapping in new batteries that can also mimic the structural capacity of the Tesla batteries?

Ignoring the voided warranty, service issues, cooling and computer interface for a moment, say you could fit 420 kWh of new batteries in the same cavity. 420 x $75 ($25 for the pack) plus $5000 install would only be $36,500 and get a 1000 mile range.

So in theory I could cheap out and get the dual motor now (2023), drive it for a couple years, waste the remaining pack life, install the new pack in 2027 for a total cost of $86,500 and have 1000 miles of range. Crazy what ifs but with in the realm of the battery cost curve.

Thoughts?
Ideally one would repurpose the battery pack if it could be removed without damage. So I am a little more clear. Save $20,000 at first purchase by sticking with the dual motor and smaller battery tech, this makes it a little easier to pay for the upgrade.

I am also assuming a leap in tech like solid state batteries at a low cost. I am not sure there is a roadmap to double density with lithium.
 

Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
126
Messages
16,216
Reaction score
27,078
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
The structural battery will mean a new pack will have to have structural properties. But since packs have to be designed for a specific model anyhow, that won't be an issue. You just replace the entire piece, just like any body piece.

-Crissa
 

Gvardaman

Well-known member
First Name
Guy
Joined
Jun 16, 2020
Threads
7
Messages
139
Reaction score
152
Location
Southern California
Vehicles
Tesla Model 3, BMW 330ci, VW Corrado (non-op)
Occupation
112,888.561
Country flag
Also, if the price or the value of the FSD continues to increase, as Elon has indicated, there will be tremendous incentive to keep these vehicles on the road.
if FSD is not transferable, but purchasing it with a new vehicle is an additional 20k (or higher, Elon has said it would be “worth 100k”), adding a replacement pack or some additional batteries would be a relative bargain!
 
OP
OP
Tinker71

Tinker71

Well-known member
First Name
Ray
Joined
Aug 8, 2020
Threads
82
Messages
1,484
Reaction score
1,967
Location
Utah
Vehicles
1976 electric conversion bus
Occupation
Project Manager
Country flag
The structural battery will mean a new pack will have to have structural properties. But since packs have to be designed for a specific model anyhow, that won't be an issue. You just replace the entire piece, just like any body piece.

-Crissa
Like many I am very interested in the cavity that the battery is placed in. I think we know the batteries will act like a web on a beam using the SS shells and glue and tie into the floorboards and bottom of the battery pack which becomes the flanges. Perhaps with enough attachments points around the perimeter that structure would integrate with the exoskeleton shell, however I am not optimistic we will be able to drop out out and replace it with a new one, but I do wish that is the case.
 


Newton

Well-known member
First Name
Newton
Joined
Apr 2, 2020
Threads
16
Messages
1,081
Reaction score
1,529
Location
East Bay Area, CA
Vehicles
p̶r̶i̶u̶s̶ c̶,̶ y̶o̶t̶a̶ p̶i̶c̶k̶u̶p, ⼕丫⻏?尺セ尺ㄩ⼕长
Country flag
I wouldn't really think of the battery place as a cavity. As we know it will be epoxied into essentially 1 large battery.
I dont see why they wouldn't allow this to bolt on the bottom.
Perhaps it would be faster, cheaper stronger to make it integral onto the frame.
 

T3slaDad

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 5, 2019
Threads
3
Messages
200
Reaction score
292
Location
Hot Places
Vehicles
Model 3, RWD Cybertruck
Country flag
As far as Tesla dropping software support for their older vehicles at some point, it's definitely possible. However, look at the manufacturers you're talking about and how many products are in their lines. Samsung has made over 100 models in the last 10 years, supporting every one of them (many are similar, but they all vary slightly) is a beast. Microsoft supported windows, which had to be entirely flexible in every degree to account for the countless hardware configurations that could be built. The list goes on and on!

Tesla has 5 vehicles that have rolled out in production over the last 10 years, and has only a handful more in the works. There are various generations of these models, but even over it's history has changed them in a few ways. Having the engineering power to support a few dozen variants over the years vs hundreds of models is very different.

Either way, if Tesla stops supporting my M3 or CT after 20 years, that's a million more exciting "I have a new car with every update" events I've had over any other vehicle I've ever owned.
 

Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
126
Messages
16,216
Reaction score
27,078
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
Elon was talking that the material they were using to 'glue' the batteries in would be rigid like carbon fiber, unlike previously approved potting materials.

-Crissa
 

MEDICALJMP

Well-known member
First Name
Jeff
Joined
Apr 28, 2020
Threads
248
Messages
1,238
Reaction score
2,479
Location
Omaha, NE
Vehicles
Toyota Avalon, Rav4, Tri-motor Cybertruck
Occupation
Nurse
Country flag
As far as Tesla dropping software support for their older vehicles at some point, it's definitely possible. However, look at the manufacturers you're talking about and how many products are in their lines. Samsung has made over 100 models in the last 10 years, supporting every one of them (many are similar, but they all vary slightly) is a beast. Microsoft supported windows, which had to be entirely flexible in every degree to account for the countless hardware configurations that could be built. The list goes on and on!

Tesla has 5 vehicles that have rolled out in production over the last 10 years, and has only a handful more in the works. There are various generations of these models, but even over it's history has changed them in a few ways. Having the engineering power to support a few dozen variants over the years vs hundreds of models is very different.

Either way, if Tesla stops supporting my M3 or CT after 20 years, that's a million more exciting "I have a new car with every update" events I've had over any other vehicle I've ever owned.
Why do so many think that Tesla won’t support your old vehicle? Those older vehicles that bought FSB may need a new chip implant to actually perform after the newest release. Do you not think that Tesla won’t sell an upgraded chip set or (pardon the lack of accurate tech-speak) CPU, MCU or whatever it is that provides control functions. I have read here on this very site where current users upgraded infotainment and other functions by purchasing new panels. Much easier and cheaper to swap out your display panel with the chip (I am using that as an example of where the chips are stored.)

Tesla wants to save the planet. You don’t do that filling up landfills with old cars. You keep them running as long as possible by making them adaptable to new tech. Planned obsolescence is Old Detroit. If anything we all have learned, Tesla doesn’t do Old Detroit.
 
Last edited:


Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
126
Messages
16,216
Reaction score
27,078
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
Why do do many think that Tesla won’t support your old vehicle? Those older vehicles that bought FSB may need a new chip implant to actually perform after the newest release.
At a certain point, they'll need new cameras and systems and may no longer have the same viewpoints as current cars and it will be more and more expensive to maintain these older cars in the fleet... Instead of selling a new car.

Tesla has abandoned cars which insurance has declared too expensive to repair and there isn't much support for the older Model S now.

But yes, so far, the company has been supporting cars much longer than other carmarkers.

-Crissa
 

ldjessee

Well-known member
First Name
Lloyd
Joined
Apr 22, 2020
Threads
14
Messages
1,148
Reaction score
1,357
Location
Indiana, USA
Vehicles
Nissan Leaf, MYLR, Kaw 1700 Vaquero
Occupation
Business Intelligence Manager & Analyst
Country flag
I hope the structural battery pack that the 4680 cells are used in can be replaced, but in a Model Y or Model 3, I assume there will be a front casting, the structural battery pack and the rear casting and you can unbolt them (I hope they are not welded together, because that would mean cutting them apart), replace the structural battery pack, and bolt it back together. Might need to do it on a frame jig, to get everything lined up and the vehicle tracking right.
 

Diehard

Well-known member
First Name
D
Joined
Dec 5, 2020
Threads
23
Messages
2,127
Reaction score
4,247
Location
U.S.A.
Vehicles
Olds Aurora V8, Saturn Sky redline, Lightning, CT2
Country flag
I think the consensus is you will not be able to easily change out the battery pack because it will be structural maybe even glued in. What would be really cool if tesla could make a very special solvent that could break down the glue around the cells so they could be removed if a single cell failed, or for us DIY folks reconfigured in other configurations. Right now removing a single cell is extremely difficult and labor intensive.
It would be very interesting to see the videos of crash tests and see what happens to the pack. If it cannot be replaced, insurance on CT will go through the roof.
Sponsored

 
 




Top