How much money will I lose trading in?

Master Geo

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So, I need a car bad after a deer hit me. I'm thinking about ordering one of those new model 3's when it comes out, and trading when my Cybertruck reservation comes up. I'm just over a million on the list and would guess that I'm looking at a year and a half before becoming eligible to get one. That would put it around June of 2025 is my best guess. What would I lose in value trading it back into Tesla for the Truck?

I'm currently diving a BMW 2004 330i with 215,000 miles on it. It has a messed up hood and headlight and front fender, still drivable though. I'm hoping this truck will plow through a deer next time, LOL.
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HaulingAss

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A normal sized deer hit at highway speeds is going to damage any vehicle that hits it, including those big, tough-looking 3/4 ton and 1-ton pickups. Including Cybertruck. There's a lot of energy involved in smashing into a deer at highway speeds.

No one can tell you how much depreciation, if any, a new Model 3 will experience in a year and a half because that's in the future and we don't even know how much you will be paying for it because the refreshed Model 3 is not even availlable yet. It's always a gamble but I would be pretty confident it will be below the rate of depreciation of just about any new gas car you could buy. The lowest depreciation would be keeping what you already have or buying another well-used car. I recently bought a 2018 Model 3 with over 300 miles of range still, 69K miles on the odometer and FSD and free Premium Connectivity for life for only $28K.

The less money you spend, the less it can depreciate.
 

cvalue13

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If you’re worried about depreciation and deer, get a jeep wrangler and bull bar
 

Ogre

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The less money you spend, the less it can depreciate.
This.

It’s a weird car market right now, new and used. The only way to win is to put as little into the game as you can get away with. If you are only owning for 2 years you are going to pay for the privilege
 


Coolbreeze704

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were you wearing a yellow jacket?

1681825190964.jpeg
I think this is staged.

How could that buck pull the trigger on that shotgun? Besides it a pump 12 gauge . Had to be a kill shot on first shot because he is not going to be able to pump that next round in.

I am calling fake news here.
 

Coolbreeze704

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My deer friend told me the picture was created using AI.
Makes sense.

AI will eventually kill us all off. Starts small like this then whammy it gets us all!
 

Crissa

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I think this is staged.

How could that buck pull the trigger on that shotgun? Besides it a pump 12 gauge . Had to be a kill shot on first shot because he is not going to be able to pump that next round in.

I am calling fake news here.
Spouse never needed more than one shot, but she specialized in black powder weapons. From my friends growing up, they also assumed only one shot before giving chase to recover the carcass.

And deer are so keen at holding still... I would think they'd be great shots, if armed with a shotgun.

-Crissa
 


Diehard

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may not kill us soon, but folks should be thinking hard about their professions’ viability as soon as the next 12-24 months
You want job security, get a position in unemployment office. Things are certainly changing fast. I hear, AI is getting better at generating realistic looking video content as well. I am curious what the future of news will be once seeing is no longer believing. Even now, our feeds makes sure we hear and see only what we already believe. Mix that with convincing custom made AI generated footage and the only real choice will be to stay plugged in or unplug all together (if that is a choice at all).

I don’t see AI by itself as a problem. The problem is that AI will be mature long before humanity does and that gap is a serious problem. We live with an adversarial political system and an economy that is based on competition without sufficient moral safeguards (not sure if there could ever be such a thing). It is hard to imagine at least a subcategory of AI (narrow) not be used as a weapon.
 
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Diehard

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Makes sense.

AI will eventually kill us all off. Starts small like this then whammy it gets us all!
We have been feeding AI with all kinds of juicy info on how the human network works and how it can be manipulated. It needs it’s host alive. May be instead of a plug in back of our head, it will just controls us with a screen in front of it.
 

cvalue13

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You want job security, get a position in unemployment office. Things are certainly changing fast.
My company is AI-adjacent, and I’m constantly around VC firms diligencing or funding the company’s pushing this space.

General language AI, like ChatGPT, are undergoing evolutionary leaps on a near daily (certainly less than weekly) basis.

And companies we’ve not all yet heard of are just around the corner to offer products/services that will in some cases undermine many white collar professions overnight.

For example, if I were currently a radiologist or pathologist, I’d be pivoting hard and fast.

A little (?) more medium term (2yrs?), I have near daily conversations with my wife (a dermatologist) on how to retool her skillsets and practice focus in order to still be employable in 2026.

Not singling out medicine, as many categories of white collar jobs will be quickly reduced to prompt-engineers and proofing - which won’t pay as well, and require maybe 1/5th the workforce.

On the verge of something far bigger than cellular, internet, and personal computing. And there’s no getting the genie back in the bottle.
 

Diehard

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My company is AI-adjacent, and I’m constantly around VC firms diligencing or funding the company’s pushing this space.

General language AI, like ChatGPT, are undergoing evolutionary leaps on a near daily (certainly less than weekly) basis.

And companies we’ve not all yet heard of are just around the corner to offer products/services that will in some cases undermine many white collar professions overnight.

For example, if I were currently a radiologist or pathologist, I’d be pivoting hard and fast.

A little (?) more medium term (2yrs?), I have near daily conversations with my wife (a dermatologist) on how to retool her skillsets and practice focus in order to still be employable in 2026.

Not singling out medicine, as many categories of white collar jobs will be quickly reduced to prompt-engineers and proofing - which won’t pay as well, and require maybe 1/5th the workforce.

On the verge of something far bigger than cellular, internet, and personal computing. And there’s no getting the genie back in the bottle.
Last year my optometrist cousin was telling me he is already 70% obsolete and mainly is around so a human can take the blame in case something goes wrong.

since we already hijacked the thread, here is what this guy thinks on the subject (long and not much new):

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