ICE proposed EOL 2035

jerhenderson

Well-known member
First Name
Jeremy
Joined
Feb 20, 2020
Threads
11
Messages
2,202
Reaction score
3,354
Location
Prince George BC
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Occupation
Correctional Officer
Country flag
Oil and gas are not going anywhere. yes we will reduce the number of ICE vehicles on the road, but you will still have airplanes that will need fuel, military vehicles, etc. Plus we will still need oil products (like plastic, grease, etc) to make electric vehicles.
plastic products are already made with vegetable derived oils and electric planes are already in design... and the military has already stated EV is superior for their applications, so yes oil and gas are on their way out.
Sponsored

 

OOHMMM

Member
First Name
Peter
Joined
Feb 1, 2020
Threads
1
Messages
7
Reaction score
8
Location
california
Vehicles
Tesla S, Range Rover, Volvo XC-70,
Occupation
Med-tech entrepreneur
Country flag
Rethink -X (a think tank spun out from Stanford) produced a white paper in 2017, Rethink Transportation, that predicts a massive disruption similar to the way autos disrupted the horse and buggy. It might only take 12 years because the cost of transport will drop by more than 90% with autonomous EVs. Fascinating read. https://www.rethinkx.com/transportation
 

GnarlyDudeLive

Well-known member
First Name
Darin
Joined
Aug 26, 2020
Threads
14
Messages
429
Reaction score
936
Location
Chicago
Vehicles
2004 F350 Dually (Tri-CT reservation)
Occupation
Database Administrator
Country flag
Rethink -X (a think tank spun out from Stanford) produced a white paper in 2017, Rethink Transportation, that predicts a massive disruption similar to the way autos disrupted the horse and buggy. It might only take 12 years because the cost of transport will drop by more than 90% with autonomous EVs. Fascinating read. https://www.rethinkx.com/transportation

I have been unsuccessfully preaching the same ideas to my ICE gearhead buddies. The *BIG* impact aside from how we individually do transportation, will be to the manufactures of vehicles. When 90% of the vehicles currently sit idle (FYI: I made that number up) and a service can replace the total # of vehicles to 1/3rd while still servicing all of the population, that is going to be a huge hit to the vehicle manufacturing sales numbers. Tesla's deserves credit in wanting to be the business that provides/manages that very same future service. IMO: This leaves them way ahead of the curve in comparison to the other auto manufactures especially when you consider how far ahead they are in the autonomous piece as well.

Think about not needing a garage or even a driveway for that matter. No need for vehicle insurance or maintenance costs, or the lost monies when paying interest on a vehicle loan or even the loan itself. How much could a 5-10min response time to hailing a vehicle be worth on a monthly basis to a person? $500-$1000 monthly subscription? Seems like a lot of money but compared to what you fork out a month to own a vehicle of your own, its not that bad really.
 

Sirfun

Well-known member
First Name
Joe
Joined
Dec 28, 2019
Threads
55
Messages
2,389
Reaction score
4,872
Location
Oxnard, California
Vehicles
Toyota Avalon, Chrysler Pacifica PHEV, Ford E-250
Occupation
Retired Sheet Metal Worker
Country flag
I have been unsuccessfully preaching the same ideas to my ICE gearhead buddies. The *BIG* impact aside from how we individually do transportation, will be to the manufactures of vehicles. When 90% of the vehicles currently sit idle (FYI: I made that number up) and a service can replace the total # of vehicles to 1/3rd while still servicing all of the population, that is going to be a huge hit to the vehicle manufacturing sales numbers. Tesla's deserves credit in wanting to be the business that provides/manages that very same future service. IMO: This leaves them way ahead of the curve in comparison to the other auto manufactures especially when you consider how far ahead they are in the autonomous piece as well.

Think about not needing a garage or even a driveway for that matter. No need for vehicle insurance or maintenance costs, or the lost monies when paying interest on a vehicle loan or even the loan itself. How much could a 5-10min response time to hailing a vehicle be worth on a monthly basis to a person? $500-$1000 monthly subscription? Seems like a lot of money but compared to what you fork out a month to own a vehicle of your own, its not that bad really.
Hmmm, (sometime in the future) how about us people that already have a garage or driveway and paid off our Cybertruck 5 years ago. It has 500,000 miles left in it? How much are we spending a month to have it drive us around in FSD that we purchased with the vehicle? My solar panels are paid for and I have basically free energy. Why would I want to get rid of my Cybertruck?
 

datechboss101

Well-known member
First Name
Akaash
Joined
Mar 12, 2021
Threads
15
Messages
129
Reaction score
123
Location
Orlando, FL
Vehicles
2017 Acura MDX
Occupation
IT Help Desk
Country flag
plastic products are already made with vegetable derived oils and electric planes are already in design... and the military has already stated EV is superior for their applications, so yes oil and gas are on their way out.
I believe it was a CNBC video on youtube that I watched that said that aircrafts (I.e: passenger airplanes) waste fuel just to land the jet. That's literally tons of gallons of fuel wasted and dissolved into the atmosphere!
 


OOHMMM

Member
First Name
Peter
Joined
Feb 1, 2020
Threads
1
Messages
7
Reaction score
8
Location
california
Vehicles
Tesla S, Range Rover, Volvo XC-70,
Occupation
Med-tech entrepreneur
Country flag
I have been unsuccessfully preaching the same ideas to my ICE gearhead buddies. The *BIG* impact aside from how we individually do transportation, will be to the manufactures of vehicles. When 90% of the vehicles currently sit idle (FYI: I made that number up) and a service can replace the total # of vehicles to 1/3rd while still servicing all of the population, that is going to be a huge hit to the vehicle manufacturing sales numbers. Tesla's deserves credit in wanting to be the business that provides/manages that very same future service. IMO: This leaves them way ahead of the curve in comparison to the other auto manufactures especially when you consider how far ahead they are in the autonomous piece as well.

Think about not needing a garage or even a driveway for that matter. No need for vehicle insurance or maintenance costs, or the lost monies when paying interest on a vehicle loan or even the loan itself. How much could a 5-10min response time to hailing a vehicle be worth on a monthly basis to a person? $500-$1000 monthly subscription? Seems like a lot of money but compared to what you fork out a month to own a vehicle of your own, its not that bad really.
GnarlyDudeLive - I agree with you. If I remember correctly, the Rethink chaps estimated that the average cost to own an ICE is $15k per year, and they estimate autonomous EV TaaS will cost $1-2k per year. So, one tenth of the cost. In studying disruptive technologies, they claim that there has NEVER been a new technology that reduced costs by 90% that was not adopted rapidly. In the case of the horse and buggy, they use an image of NY city with horses packed head to tail, and the same shot 12 years later with Model T's packed bumper-to-bumper. The catalyst was cost; 90% cheaper to operate a Model T than feed and care for the horse.

Exciting times, especially with the opportunities to improve the quality of life, reduce noise, stress, carbon emissions and re-claim all the urban space currently used to park cars.

Cheers,
 

OOHMMM

Member
First Name
Peter
Joined
Feb 1, 2020
Threads
1
Messages
7
Reaction score
8
Location
california
Vehicles
Tesla S, Range Rover, Volvo XC-70,
Occupation
Med-tech entrepreneur
Country flag
Hmmm, (sometime in the future) how about us people that already have a garage or driveway and paid off our Cybertruck 5 years ago. It has 500,000 miles left in it? How much are we spending a month to have it drive us around in FSD that we purchased with the vehicle? My solar panels are paid for and I have basically free energy. Why would I want to get rid of my Cybertruck?
The TaaS will take much longer to arrive in more rural areas, and for truly rural Taas won't ever work. These folks will need CT's or at least EV's, because gas stations and mechanics will be increasingly fewer and farther apart. You'll start to see them disappearing in major cities first, and it will spread our to the burbs from there. Most people I know who live in NY City keep their only autos at their country homes and use UBER/LYFT in town, so it's already getting baked-in.
Cheers,
 

Sirfun

Well-known member
First Name
Joe
Joined
Dec 28, 2019
Threads
55
Messages
2,389
Reaction score
4,872
Location
Oxnard, California
Vehicles
Toyota Avalon, Chrysler Pacifica PHEV, Ford E-250
Occupation
Retired Sheet Metal Worker
Country flag
The TaaS will take much longer to arrive in more rural areas, and for truly rural Taas won't ever work. These folks will need CT's or at least EV's, because gas stations and mechanics will be increasingly fewer and farther apart. You'll start to see them disappearing in major cities first, and it will spread our to the burbs from there. Most people I know who live in NY City keep their only autos at their country homes and use UBER/LYFT in town, so it's already getting baked-in.
Cheers,
BTW I see parts of that business model in the near future also. I think the early markets should be urban areas with lot's of tourism and rental cars. The rental car business will be the first to go. Why pay a ton of money for a rental and daily parking fee at your hotel in some strange city when you can pay as you go with automated vehicle that's dialed into all your possible needs. Tesla with its connected cars will make a killing. The businesses will pay Tesla to be referred. Probably Tesla will have your buying habits and itinerary on your profile from your phone, before the vehicle even arrives.
 

FutureBoy

Well-known member
First Name
Reginald
Joined
Oct 1, 2020
Threads
207
Messages
3,522
Reaction score
6,012
Location
Kirkland WA USA
Vehicles
Toyota Sienna
Occupation
Financial Advisor
Country flag
Think about not needing a garage or even a driveway for that matter. No need for vehicle insurance or maintenance costs, or the lost monies when paying interest on a vehicle loan or even the loan itself. How much could a 5-10min response time to hailing a vehicle be worth on a monthly basis to a person? $500-$1000 monthly subscription? Seems like a lot of money but compared to what you fork out a month to own a vehicle of your own, its not that bad really.
I’m with you on all but the not needing a garage. With vehicles out of the way, garages will open up for creative uses. I’m still going to want my garage. But I must admit that most garages will become storage rooms for junk no one uses.
 

GnarlyDudeLive

Well-known member
First Name
Darin
Joined
Aug 26, 2020
Threads
14
Messages
429
Reaction score
936
Location
Chicago
Vehicles
2004 F350 Dually (Tri-CT reservation)
Occupation
Database Administrator
Country flag
Hmmm, (sometime in the future) how about us people that already have a garage or driveway and paid off our Cybertruck 5 years ago. It has 500,000 miles left in it? How much are we spending a month to have it drive us around in FSD that we purchased with the vehicle? My solar panels are paid for and I have basically free energy. Why would I want to get rid of my Cybertruck?
Oh no, I like you will fight tooth and nail to keep my own Cybertruck but the transaction will still occur as new drivers (16 year olds) start driving everyday and the older folk that need transportation (safely). Soon to follow will be people that are in need of a replacement and see the cost savings. Won't take long before it ends up that way. I personally don't care, I want the truck regardless and paid for the FSD as well at 7k so ideally futureproof.
 


Crissa

Well-known member
First Name
Crissa
Joined
Jul 8, 2020
Threads
126
Messages
16,229
Reaction score
27,098
Location
Santa Cruz
Vehicles
2014 Zero S, 2013 Mazda 3
Country flag
Fewer than one-in-four sixteen year olds get their license now. And even getting it at 18 is dropping, as well. We've made it so difficult, expensive, and well, not useful for kids to know how to drive.

-Crissa
 

DarinCT

Well-known member
First Name
Darin
Joined
Dec 16, 2020
Threads
8
Messages
357
Reaction score
625
Location
California
Vehicles
M3, CT triM
Country flag
The reality is, once the upfront cost of EV's are on point or lower than the ICE alternative and the cost of ownership and operating is lower, ICE based vehicles are simply going to fade away. No reasonable person is going to spend more money on something that is inferior in multiple ways and depreciates faster.

It is an absolute waste of time and effort (tax payers contributions) to develop new laws and restrictions for something that is going to naturally occur relatively quickly anyhow. Lawmakers: Please spend that effort somewhere doing something more production.
Are you suggesting people vehicles are "reasonable" people? They are not. I am quite serious. Reasonable purchases would not include sports cars, luxury sedans, or stainless steel 80K trucks. Talk to someone who still loves driving their '62 Bug or a F250 grocery getter.

Even after EV are cheaper than ICE, there will still be many laggards who will buy ICE. It's what they know and they'll pay extra for it. They might seem like holdouts. Research suggests that late majority and laggards is roughly half of the population. Then, consider that the conversion doesn't happen that often so they may dig in for longer. The majority of the population lives in multi-unit dwellings. The additional hurdle for them will be charging. There are solutions but I suspect the government will need to keep at it in some form well passed the rational decision point.
 
OP
OP
rr6013

rr6013

Well-known member
First Name
Rex
Joined
Apr 22, 2020
Threads
54
Messages
1,680
Reaction score
1,620
Location
Coronado Bay Panama
Website
shorttakes.substack.com
Vehicles
1997 Tahoe 2 door 4x4
Occupation
Retired software developer and heavy commercial design builder
Country flag
a
I have been unsuccessfully preaching the same ideas to my ICE gearhead buddies. The *BIG* impact aside from how we individually do transportation, will be to the manufactures of vehicles. When 90% of the vehicles currently sit idle (FYI: I made that number up) and a service can replace the total # of vehicles to 1/3rd while still servicing all of the population, that is going to be a huge hit to the vehicle manufacturing sales numbers. Tesla's deserves credit in wanting to be the business that provides/manages that very same future service. IMO: This leaves them way ahead of the curve in comparison to the other auto manufactures especially when you consider how far ahead they are in the autonomous piece as well.

Think about not needing a garage or even a driveway for that matter. No need for vehicle insurance or maintenance costs, or the lost monies when paying interest on a vehicle loan or even the loan itself. How much could a 5-10min response time to hailing a vehicle be worth on a monthly basis to a person? $500-$1000 monthly subscription? Seems like a lot of money but compared to what you fork out a month to own a vehicle of your own, its not that bad really.
Thou dost subscript too much!

$500 tilts the game. $1000 is NYC-minute money talk. Until subscription monthly nationwide in USA reaches ubiquity AND $250 all-you-can-eat pricing its DOA.
 

jerhenderson

Well-known member
First Name
Jeremy
Joined
Feb 20, 2020
Threads
11
Messages
2,202
Reaction score
3,354
Location
Prince George BC
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Occupation
Correctional Officer
Country flag
Are you suggesting people vehicles are "reasonable" people? They are not. I am quite serious. Reasonable purchases would not include sports cars, luxury sedans, or stainless steel 80K trucks. Talk to someone who still loves driving their '62 Bug or a F250 grocery getter.

Even after EV are cheaper than ICE, there will still be many laggards who will buy ICE. It's what they know and they'll pay extra for it. They might seem like holdouts. Research suggests that late majority and laggards is roughly half of the population. Then, consider that the conversion doesn't happen that often so they may dig in for longer. The majority of the population lives in multi-unit dwellings. The additional hurdle for them will be charging. There are solutions but I suspect the government will need to keep at it in some form well passed the rational decision point.
there will be laggards but the increased cost of gas and fewer gas stations selling it will push the inevitable EV take over.
Sponsored

 
 




Top