My 2022 Cybertruck MSRP predictions. Are you sitting down?

TomGriff

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I'm a CT reservation holder because a dual motor at 50K is such a great value. If the price goes up significantly and becomes similar to similarly optioned F-150 (or Silverado if it is in production in the next few years) I will re-evaluate my decision. Unlike many on this website, I'm not convinced the CT is going to be that much better than the other EV trucks out there. The CT being able to seat 6 is a big factor for me as well. I think CT will win on efficiency and range, but not by as much as many think. Keep in mind that most other EV makers' cars come closer or exceed their EPA ratings in the real world as compared to Tesla. Efficiency is often overlooked, better efficiency equals quicker recharge at the same Kw and cheaper operating cost - I expect CT will quite a bit more efficient. I prefer the look of the F-150 and Rivian over CT, but that could change when I see them in person.

Some real world range tables - https://insideevs.com/reviews/443791/ev-range-test-results/; https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/electric-car-range-and-consumption-epa-vs-edmunds.html#infographic

I am a buyer of value and not locked into a particular vehicle. I think that they are going to largely honor the MSRP for reservations holders (prior to the website change), but wouldn't bet any money on that. It will also be interesting to see how they handle options for the CT. During the earlier MS, there were quite a few options available and Tesla moved away from that. Curious to see if they move back to that with CT. Life isn't bad when these are the decisions I'm facing....
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Crissa

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My willingness to buy a vehicle this expensive will be based on the premium I'm paying for the CT vs the cost of used 1/2 ton that I would normally buy. CT price - Used truck price = the premium. Then figuring out the break-even point for that premium by doing the math for the price of gas, and the price of electricity at my house. If the break-even is more than 15 years, I will not buy. So high-priced gas, and high-priced used vehicles, and low-priced electricity favor buying the Tesla. As the environment around me changes, my priorities, plans, and actions change.
The premium will always be high because as EVs get more competitive, the ICE vehicles will crash in value.

But most EVs clear it in five years, and that was before the used-car supply crunch we're in.

-Crissa
 
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Mini2nut

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As the OP I hope I am 100% wrong and that Tesla will honor the original $50k and $70k advertised pricing. I am preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

The reason behind my thinking is that the world has changed since the Cybertruck was revealed in November 2019. It was during pre-pandemic times and inflation and supply chain issues around the world were not an issue.
 
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Ogre

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It was strictly a teaser price to drum up interest in the vehicle
I find it weird that people think Tesla is going to pick Muskā€™s pet project as the time in their business where they start playing underhanded marketing games.

To date, Tesla has missed a lot of deadlined but has always acted in good faith and delivered on their promises. The idea that they would deliberately show ā€œTeaserā€ prices they never intended to follow up on is so out of character it makes no sense. Particularly with a project which Musk is so personally attached to.

I considered inflation, increased costs for raw materials such as copper, aluminum and nickel, crazy demand for the vehicle, competition (no comps on the market), standard features may include RWS, etc.
Did you take into account the fact that Tesla makes long term supplier agreements which lock in pricing or share pricing increases with their suppliers?

Also, I ordered two trucks, one of them last month. There hasnā€˜t been any inflation in the past month. If they were going to raise prices due to increasing prices in 2020 & 2021, selling the truck for $49k in 2021 makes no sense. This goes back to acting in bad faith.

Tesla will claim low demand but It MAY be offered in the future, say 4-6 years
Tesla has already come out and said the CT1 would be the last one delivered which strongly suggests we wonā€™t see it for 3-4+ years down the road.


Keep in mind, Teslaā€˜s margins have been *increasing* over the past year. That suggests that whatever the actual effect these supply shortages have had on their cost structure, itā€™s been less than the ~15% price increase theyā€™ve passed on to customers.

While you point out the costs of inflation and things like that, what you seem to miss is the costs on the other side of the equation.

Theyā€™ve made a promise to customers to deliver a product for a price. It doesnā€™t matter if there is legal fine print which says otherwise, they have made a promise. If they reneg on that promise, they are going to piss off a huge number of customers. Many of which are first time Tesla buyers. Tesla has a reputation for exceeding the promises they make at launch day. This would completely harpoon that reputation.


Tesla priced the Cybertruck they way they did to directly attack the base F150 and Silverados on value. If they bump priced by $8,000 and eliminate the base model, all of that goes out the window.

Ford hasnā€™t raised prices on their trucks during this crunch. Their dealerships have been adding dealer market and Ford has been limiting shipments to the more expensive models. Once the supply shortages go away, Ford will resume selling the $35k and $45k RWD and 4WD Supercabs again and Teslaā€™s goal to be price competitive with those trucks goes out the window. Even with the current crunch, I can still find a $45k 4WD f150 Supercab at a dealer. They will likely mark it up $7k, but that is a short term constraint.
 

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The premium will always be high because as EVs get more competitive, the ICE vehicles will crash in value.

But most EVs clear it in five years, and that was before the used-car supply crunch we're in.

-Crissa
Clear what in 5 years? The premium?
Maybe if comparing a new $60k ICE truck to a new CT3. But that's not what I'm doing. I know it's not fair, but I don't buy new vehicles. I can buy a lot of gas and put a lot of maintenance into a truck that's a couple of years old for the extra $40k I'd be paying for the CT3. Right now with the price of the CT as is, it's just under 15 years to break even...for me. That assumes I buy a used $35k truck.
 


Blue Steel

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If your estimates are correct I would have to take a hard look at the R1T. I see lots of pros and cons for each truck, but the biggest deciding factor for me is the $10k price difference. If that difference shrinks below $5k (after subtracting the federal rebate) it will make my CT relationship complicated.

Funny thing is, I bought my Model Y when it was under $50k. I just couldn't justify to myself spending more for a Tesla CUV than I would pay for an similarly spec'ed Tesla Truck. It'll be interesting to see where all this supply chain madness settles in 12-18 months.
 
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Crissa, I truly hope I am wrong and you are correct.

A $50k Dual Motor CT will be a bargain. If the original pricing stays accurate I am checking the RWD option box if Tesla doesnā€™t make it standard equipment.
 

Ogre

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Perhaps they will offer a discount for us loyal TSLA stock holders (valued over $900/share as of close Friday Oct 22) Go TSLA, go! ???
Just hang on to Tesla stock long enough and the cost of the truck isnā€™t too important.

I think 2022 is going to be a very good year.
 


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Yes sir!!! Tesla shares closed at an all-time high of $909.68 today. Is $1k per share around the corner?
 

Ogre

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Yes sir!!! Tesla shares closed at an all-time high of $909.68 today. Is $1k per share around the corner?
Lets see look at our check list for 2022 being an awesome TSLA year:

Giga Berlin on track? Check
Tera Texas on track? Check
4680 Cells (finally) starting production? CHECK!
Demand for EVs and Teslas is off-the-hook? Double Check
Margins at an all-time-high and increasing? Check!
Cybertruck production started? Oopsā€¦.

5 out of 6 ainā€™t bad, when the Cybertruck comes online ?
 

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...Which hasn't impacted the demand on the Y below their ability to produce.

So why wouldn't they raise their price? It's standard economics.

But you know who they didn't raise the price on? Any of their reservation holders.

-Crissa
I think the price increases we've seen are based on supply and demand with some from commodity prices. The CT won't see supply and demand price increases yet as Tesla wants as many CT out there asap. Commodity price increases may be absorbed for the same reason, if GM % allows it. If they've factored in 30% GM, I'll bet they'd be happy with 25% to keep prices stable for reservation holders.
 

jerhenderson

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Yes sir!!! Tesla shares closed at an all-time high of $909.68 today. Is $1k per share around the corner?
the opening or anticipation of opening of Berlin and Austin would definitely push that direction.
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