My current feelings about the $TSLA Stock Situation:

[Tecyber1]

I hope you're right, though some say it could fall as low as $250-$300.

Good, if it does I am buying more!

Sponsored

 

[65SoYoLO]

oh boy.

 

[Oscar]

I hope you're right, though some say it could fall as low as $250-$300.

I bought it years ago @ $120 still better than most others

 

[HaulingAss]

you must be new to TSLA, I had over 1,000 shares when it dropped to near $100, I bought more.
You have to have balls of steel, and not worry about it, it will be fine longterm, it always has been

You don't need balls of steel, you just need to understand two things:

1) How much purposeful misinformation there is out there, specifically negative misinformation about Tesla in general and Elon Musk specifically.

2) That investing profitably is not a "get rich quick scheme" (that's gambling), it's a slow process that generally takes decades to have astonishing results via the power of the annual average earnings growth compounded over decades. Trying to time the stock price moves is not the realiable way to great wealth, adding on dips is.

The chart you posted shows the general trend has been up:

But, because investing is a game of compounding growth over decades, you will get a more descriptive picture of what has actually occurred since the IPO by using a chart with the Y-axis (share price) on a logarithmic scale. Otherwise you lose the significance of the gains experienced by early investors:

A logarithmic chart shows a lot more of what has actually occurred in terms of share price growth. You can now see that investors tend to realize new value rather suddenly, all in a short span, with the stock digesting that new value over a period of roughly 5 years. You don't want to miss those periods when investors realize the future value (and it's very difficult to front-run all the other investors because you never know when they will recognize that value). I'm actually better than most at doing exactly that, but I still don't try to time the market (other then adding to my position during obvious dips). When I need money (I've been living off capital gains for decades) I try to sell well in advance of my needs if the price is good. If the price is low (like it is now), I would only sell if I ran out of cash to live on. Ideally, I won't need to raise cash (sell any) until it triples from here (well over $1000/share). And I won't need to. Because I have other stocks I could sell if Tesla takes longer than expected for investors to realize it's likely worth over $1000/share.

The run in 2020/2021 was so strong that I raised cash towards the end of 2021, not to try to time the market, but because I was happy with the share price and knew I would probably need the money for living expenses before it went significantly higher. I liquidated enough for years of living expenses, because that's the nature of a stock this volatile, it could take years to reach new all-time highs, just like it did for the five years between 2014 and 2019. The intrinsic value of Tesla tends to grow relatively steadily year over year, while the value investors assign to TSLA grows in somewhat unpredictable spurts (with many false starts along the way). That's why smart investors always buy during the dips, the darkest times, the times the media narratives are the most negative. Because the only thing worse than trying to time the market is trying to time the markets by taking the media at face value.

I have since re-purchased all the shares I sold, and then some, with plenty of cash to live on in the meantime. I have more shares right now than I've ever had. Balls of steel were not required. All that was required was an understanding that the value of Tesla continues to grow (even if the market is not recognizing that yet).

Investing is never without some level of risk, but it's difficult to find a stock that has a better risk/reward ratio than TSLA, IMO. Certainly other stocks will greatly outperform TSLA over the next decade (in terms of % share price growth), but I can't identify a company with as much certainty of great growth as Tesla. Risking huge sums of money on a promising upstart is not in my pilothouse when I can continue to compound my wealth with much lower long-term risk with a company like Tesla.

One final parting observation over the years:

Beginning investors usually lose their cool around the time a stock they went in on doubled or tripled. By this I mean they have trouble grasping how it could double or triple in value in such a short span of time, so the sell, often only to watch it go up 8x, 10X or 20X. That's leaving a lot of compounding on the table. To avoid doing this, I avoid taking profits early, even if I might need the money in a year or two, If I think there is any reasonable chance the bull run will continue (even though on the surface it seems too bullish), I will not sell. I like to wait until the bull run is so spent that it's obviously over, even if I have to take a haircut of 35%-45% (or a bit more) off the all-time high. Because the potential upside of the types of companies I invest in is always a lot greater than the potential downside.

If I don't need the money I just let it ride through the violent up/down spasms for the long-term, I never take profits simply because it seems too expensive (because no one can really judge that on companies that have as much potential as Tesla. I learned this decades ago. The desire to "lock-in gains" is the biggest and most expensive weakness most investors have.

 

[mitch9]

When I said "Balls of steel", I mean, TSLA is not for everyone. If you worry because your investment is signifigantly down from when you bought it, and it's keeping you up at night, I would tell you invest in a growth fund, like the S&P 500, TSLA is probably not for you, with it's high beta and extreme volatility. There is an entire industry that trades TSLA options, that is huge, it's that volatile that their are funds formed around it, such as YieldMax's TSLA Option Income Strategy ETF (TSLY).

I have some war stories on TSLA from when I had it in the early days (2012-2013), but I'm not going to tell them here, suffice it to say I was very close to being a TSLAnaire, but made a fatal decision one day :-(

 

[Kenneth K.]

In my experience, those who sold their TSLA shares tend to regret later. Don't be those people.

 

[Trbizwiz]

With approx $1 trillion being wiped from the market... I'm not sure if Retail Investors have any more to give.
What I'm most shocked about is Cathie Woods saying one thing, "Robotaxi will be a 10T market cap, yet her actions of selling ~$38 million of stock right at January's highest valuation. It seems very sus that her company knew to sell right before it all dipped to where we are now. Either she's one lucky mofo or she has insider info which regular investors don't.

Cathy has an obligation to keep her positions balanced. She always has to sell some shares at the peak, because the high valuation gets he managed portfolio out of balance. Coincidentally Tesla always has a big slide after peaking out. It could be outside pressure on a stock with a lot of anti Rlon narrative, or it could be anxious investors rushing in before the next big wave of new earnings. Or it could be a combination, which was then followed by a military action, which intensified narrative attacks.
historically selling TSLA at ATH, is a shrewd bet, that pays off in share multiplication. But it’s a game of musical chairs, and has big tax implications. A safer bet, in smaller doses is short term out of the money covered calls, when Tesla starts these slides. It’ll give you weekly income to buy more shares, while everyone is selling. You need to own 100 shares, or groups of 100 shares to play. I look at it as a no money out of pocket investment strategy, or a DIY dividend. This is not investment advice. You can lose money. It requires a lot of study, and consideration, to not lose money in options. But if you figure out the system, it’s a fun way to grow.

 

[Trbizwiz]

Google says there have been 600 red days in TSLA stock since 2020. It says there have been 325 weeks, which means 1625 week days, since that date. That means roughly 1000 Green Day’s.
Google also said that investing $50 per red day since 2020 would be worth around $200k, on a $30k investment. If TSLA drives you crazy, get a fractional broker, and invest only in red days. Create a budget, perhaps a few hundred per month. Over the long term, you’ll have a nice nest egg. This is not investment advice, it’s brainstorming potential algorithms out loud!

 

[REM]

I hope you're right, though some say it could fall as low as $250-$300.

If it's worth anything, I'm going all-in if it hits 260. I think Tesla will be at 850 by Q2 '27. The vast majority of people have no idea what Elon means when he says the network will come alive at the flip of a switch.


Buy the punches.

Sell the clown.

 

[CyberT]

I hope it keeps dropping. Discounted prices? Yes Sir!!!

In all seriousness, I'm at 487 and have slowed down buying to 1-2 shares a month since it's been over $400, but I can now start acquiring a bit more. So, for my selfish reasons, I hope it blows up, and we get the good old days of buying in the $100's again.

 

[macosr]

This is a buy opportunity…I’m buying more TSLA and regret not transferring money on Friday to buy after hours prior to Monday morning’s opening bell.

 

[tingmo13]

it's RED, red & ReD all across the market-are you color blind or Chicken Little?
Zoom Out or Zone Out!
At this time millions of people are dead, dying & lost all they have under this circumstances-meanwhile, you haven't lost a Cent if you didn't sell.
It's definitely, Buy, Hold & Loading Moment-and I did.

 

[HaulingAss]

If it's worth anything, I'm going all-in if it hits 260. I think Tesla will be at 850 by Q2 '27. The vast majority of people have no idea what Elon means when he says the network will come alive at the flip of a switch.


Buy the punches.

Sell the clown.

I generally agree, and if it goes that low, it could even go lower. But I'm not about to try to time the market (besides picking up some extra shares during dips) because it could take off unexpectedly starting at any time. Paying capital gains taxes from selling is a fools game, I like to let 'er ride so those gains can continue to compound tax free until I finally sell some day. If I didn't already have an outsized position I would simply buy here (or watch the market like a hawk and jump in with both feet at the first sign of bullishness). But I have better things to do that aren't compatible with watching the market like a hawk. Life is short.

 

[mitch9]

Paying capital gains taxes from selling is a fools game, I like to let 'er ride so those gains can continue to compound tax free until I finally sell some day

I am older, took advantage of the last time the stock was down in the $160ish area, and moved as many shares as I could (keeping in my same tax bracket), from my IRA to my ROTH, so now the growth AND withdrawal is tax free... Yes, I did have to pay the tax on the transfered shares, but it was down signifigantly, so that was a plus There is a 5 year holding period once transfered to the ROTH, but that will not be an issue

 

[jahansolu]

I am older, took advantage of the last time the stock was down in the $160ish area, and moved as many shares as I could (keeping in my same tax bracket), from my IRA to my ROTH, so now the growth AND withdrawal is tax free... Yes, I did have to pay the tax on the transfered shares, but it was down signifigantly, so that was a plus There is a 5 year holding period once transfered to the ROTH, but that will not be an issue

Smart.

Sponsored