Prediction: A slew of CT cancellations on the horizon

[Arctic_White]

Whittling down the 2 million reservations to 400,000 will help bump up real buyers in the reservation queue (If the 20% conversion rate is accurate).

20% conversion rate seems too low but it does make sense.

This means that Tesla would need to produce 400K+ vehicles before the orders can be filled for those who are just placing their reservation.

How many years would it take for Tesla to build 400K Cybertrucks? For reference, Ford has made 40K F-150 Lightnings in almost two years.

Depending upon the ramp, my prediction is that Tesla will make 40K Cybertrucks in 2024, 100K in 2025, and will complete its full ramp sometime in 2026. This means you won't be able to buy one until 2026 unless you have already placed a small deposit.

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[Gigahorse]

With challenges they have announced and current production ramp estimates think you are correct in saying someone will not get a truck for several years unless they already have a reservation in.