Reservation Dropout Percentage

[mhaze]

I can see that creating a bad impression, yes. But wasn't the $100 a credit against the CT purchase price, not a fee?

Regardless, while our delivered prices for the CT are up in the air, there shouldn't be any more money for deposits or fees or whatever passing hands.

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[Cebliminal]

Do we have a general guess of the normal “dropout” percentage from those who reserve vehicles? Is it safe to assume that 20% of the people who’ve reserved a CT won’t actually purchase the vehicle? $100 is such a small amount to reserve a place in line, but I’m guessing that a significant number of people won’t go through with the $50-100k purchase when the time comes.

I agree recession and other variables, I have been readying a lot about people that were going to use Tesla stock for the purchase but currently that has tanked also.

 

[charliemagpie]

Way back in Early 2020 Musk said the backlog was so big it would take 3-4 years for them to catch up.

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...-4-years-production-to-fulfill-says-musk.544/

More recently he echoed a similar comment.

At this point everything is up in the air. I don’t know why people want to try and pin down things like dropout rate when we really have no clue what production looks like. If people who ordered in February of 2020 are looking at waiting until start of production + 3 years, that’s sometime in 2026 - 2027.

So much has changed since launch I think it’s hard to say what things look like in terms of dropouts.

I'm glad you bring that quote up, because it is reason why I think production will hit at least 500,000 per year by end of 2024.

In 2020 he thinks it will take 3-4 years to 'catch up'.

And if it takes 3-4 years to fulfill backorders, what about new orders coming in?

In essence, catching up to me means fulfilling back orders AND new orders... it is ridiculous to contemplate an otherwise 8 year soviet era wait list.

 

[Ogre]

I'm glad you bring that quote up, because it is reason why I think production will hit at least 500,000 per year by end of 2024.

Yep.

There are millions of trucks sold every year. No reason Tesla can’t sell at least a million a year. Also no reason they would plan to limit production to 250k. Their capacity is limited by the Gigapress… they might have to bring more online.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Do we have a general guess of the normal “dropout” percentage from those who reserve vehicles? Is it safe to assume that 20% of the people who’ve reserved a CT won’t actually purchase the vehicle? $100 is such a small amount to reserve a place in line, but I’m guessing that a significant number of people won’t go through with the $50-100k purchase when the time comes.

drop out is going to be minuscule considering the demand supply ratio.

Unless Tesla implements a new market strategy that mitigates scalping hardly anyone will “drop out” because that reservation will be worth $1000’s.

There’s a whole thread on this that had to be shut down because the OP suggestion was threatening the potential for parasitic profiteering and many people were getting quite worked up at the possibility of losing potential profit from Teslas hard work…

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