Reservation Dropout Percentage

[HaulingAss]

That only matters if you flip some before your orders are fulfilled.

That assumes they will deliver multiple Cybertrucks to the same Tesla account consecutively. It might be one at a time, hard to say because I don't recall any reported instances of people ordering multiple other models during or shortly after a reveal event.

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[HaulingAss]

30% drop rate if my MSRP predictions are correct.

I’m expecting new MSRP’s to be 30% higher than announced in Q4 2019

-Single Motor: was $40k, trim level pulled
-Dual Motor: was $50k, now $65k for base model (no RWS option)
-Tri Motor: was $70k, now $91,000 for base model (RWS optional)
-Quad Motor: Never announced, over $100k for base model (RWS standard)

I can see you are going to be pleasantly surprised! That's the best thing about having overly pessimistic expectations!

 

[HaulingAss]

Prices were dropped due to slowing sales. Tesla wants to keep their assembly plants humming. Demand is off the chart for the Cybertruck. They can charge anything they want at this point and it will sell.

Tesla sales have been increasing for years. Tesla has been increasing production continually. Tesla dropped prices so they could expand their addressable market. GM, Ford, Stellantis, Toyota, Honda, BMW, etc. all have declining sales, not Tesla, they keep selling more cars every year.

 

[HaulingAss]

GM just cut production due to poor demand.

Almost every vehicle over $50k is suffering from demand issues right now due to high interest rates.

Tesla Model Y and Performance Model 3 are both over $50K and they are selling as fast as they can make them!

 

[Mini2nut]

Anyone who thinks the Dual Motor CT will be less than the $54,990 Model Y Long Range is delusional.

 

[Ogre]

Tesla Model Y and Performance Model 3 are both over $50K and they are selling as fast as they can make them!

After reverting most of the previous 18 months price increases. The 2022 pricing bubble was just that, a bubble. Now that the air has been let out of it, prices have returned to sanity.

 

[Ogre]

Anyone who thinks the Dual Motor CT will be less than the $54,990 Model Y Long Range is delusional.

No reason you need to be insulting while you are tossing your speculation and guesses around.

 

[Rutrow]

 

[Ogre]

About as accurate as anything.

How many vehicles have people ordered with a 4+ year lead time?

 

[cvalue13]

regarding the CT you have to remember a distinction: people ordered multiples with business ideas in mind, including robotaxi aspirations, etc.

So unlike in the Bronco forums, when people speak about people with multiple orders they aren’t really/necessarily talking about flippers but instead enthusiasts who were making big bets on the CT

 

[Ogre]

regarding the CT you have to remember a distinction: people ordered multiples with business ideas in mind, including robotaxi aspirations, etc.

So unlike in the Bronco forums, when people speak about people with multiple orders they aren’t really/necessarily talking about flippers but instead enthusiasts who were making big bets on the CT

I think a lot of business ideas will get quickly scrapped due to higher interest rates and lack of Robotaxi. Flipping will be tough for small buyers because getting that much financing will be a challenge. Particularly if only the most expensive models are produced fist.

 

[Dusty]

Until we get the official word, all we can do is speculate and listen to each other's best guesses. I like to go by "what I know" and "what I see" (the eye test).

What I know about product funding and marketing for things like Kickstarter, they found that with reservations or pre-launch VIP fees, even as little as $1, it averages to an 80% conversion to sales at product launch. This is for things that top out at a sales price of $10k, which admittingly, isn't an $80k truck. But in the end, people who are willing to put down any amount early have a high follow through rate.

What was seen with the Model 3, there was a high follow through with reservation holders. We also saw that 6 months after initial deliveries and after the first 75k-100k reservation holders were contacted to finalize their M3 orders, the Tesla website opened up to allow everyone to order. At that point the reservation advantage was lost. Holders who hadn't been contacted by then were better off just ordering and finalizing like the other "walk-ins". 9 months after initial M3 production, non-reservation holders started receiving Model 3s, while late-to-the-game reservation holders reported that they still hadn't been contacted to finalize their order.

So, if you're a reservation holder and the "order now" option appears to everyone, you may as well order online ASAP instead of waiting for your reservation.

BUT—4 years is a long gap between reservation and production. So, I think for the first 100k a 25% attrition rate is likely. And, the standing rule is, if you're not in the first 100k of reservations and Tesla opens orders online without contacting you—order online ASAP.

 

[mhaze]

I’d guess the drop out rate isn’t linear, e.g., 1st 50K orders more likely to move forward vs order #250K+

One simple way to "gauge" the dropout would be to charge a $100 yearly fee to retain place in queue. You'd know right away how many were serious. Then at time of delivery the only drop outs would be those who had a change in plans.

 

[Dusty]

A fee would be kind of pointless when reservation numbers are so high that even with a 50% attrition rate, ranks would close, and every truck made will still have a buyer for several years.

 

[Ogre]

One simple way to "gauge" the dropout would be to charge a $100 yearly fee to retain place in queue. You'd know right away how many were serious. Then at time of delivery the only drop outs would be those who had a change in plans.

It would certainly increase the dropout rate. It would also project the impression that Tesla is trying to profit off of their own delays.

I don’t understand this recurring idea that Tesla should start charging people more money prior to delivery. Then your number gets called, you configure your truck and pay a deposit. That’s how it works.

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