What percentage of pre-orders will actually buy?

[madquadbiker]

I heard the updated version coming out in a few weeks will have 180HP, get 15mpg, and look like a normal truck.

Cancel your reservations now!!!?

Oh, people don't want a normal truck? Okay, I guess you can keep your reservations...

On a serious note, I like the idea mentioned earlier about millions of CT's = readily available parts in 20+ years! I totally forgot about that point.

Brilliant so long as they keep to the original design without restyling it.

 

[Cyberman]

I say it's between 5% and 10%. Anyone cancelling an order, whether changing their minds, chickening out, bad finances, divorce, whatever, is leaving money on the table.

 

[Sirfun]

I say it's between 5% and 10%. Anyone cancelling an order, whether changing their minds, chickening out, bad finances, divorce, whatever, is leaving money on the table.

So your saying this isn't like the deal with Lordstown!
These were actual orders. ?

 

[Friday]

If the yoke/no yoke steering thread is to be taken as statistical, 50% will cancel if the steering "wheel" isn't round.

 

[HaulingAss]

So we are all looking at our place in line with our RN numbers. But really what % of people are going to actually buy it to you think?

Hopefully, lots of cancellations. That will move us all closer to the front of the line!

One thing people don't understand yet - for every cancelled reservation there will be three or four new orders from people who didn't even know Tesla was revealing a Cybertruck back in 2019. It will take Tesla years to have more manufacturing capacity than demand.

 

[HaulingAss]

If the yoke/no yoke steering thread is to be taken as statistical, 50% will cancel if the steering "wheel" isn't round.

Well then, us reservationists can only hope and pray the steering wheel isn't round then!

 

[HaulingAss]

So we are all looking at our place in line with our RN numbers. But really what % of people are going to actually buy it to you think?

I'm hoping more than half cancel.

But I have a long history of being too optimistic.

 

[datechboss101]

If the yoke/no yoke steering thread is to be taken as statistical, 50% will cancel if the steering "wheel" isn't round.

You can always add a round steering wheel as a modification! This won't stop me from buying the CT but gives an opportunity for an immediate modification if Elon does slap a Yoke for the CT.

 

[Cyber_Dav]

You can always add a round steering wheel as a modification! This won't stop me from buying the CT but gives an opportunity for an immediate modification if Elon does slap a Yoke for the CT.

Can you? Won't you lose all the controls and the airbag? Is a 3/Y round wheel compatible? I doubt this is really a realistic modification. Just my opinion.

 

[Crissa]

Can you? Won't you lose all the controls and the airbag? Is a 3/Y round wheel compatible? I doubt this is really a realistic modification. Just my opinion.

The connections are standard. And probably. The rumor is that Tesla is offering a round wheel as an option on the S, anyhow, which kinda obviates that discussion.

-Crissa

 

[datechboss101]

Can you? Won't you lose all the controls and the airbag? Is a 3/Y round wheel compatible? I doubt this is really a realistic modification. Just my opinion.

You can, pretty sure all wheels are held by 2 torx screws, a dongle connector and a big bolt.

And yes and no to the loosing all controls and airbag. It depends on what steering wheel you choose and decide. I'm personally not a fan of Tesla's steering wheels, so I might be the guinea pig for the CT to use a Honda/Acura wheel. So far, I found out that the Honda steering wheel fits perfectly for my large hands.

 

[TessP100D]

If the yoke/no yoke steering thread is to be taken as statistical, 50% will cancel if the steering "wheel" isn't round.

I think there will be far greater number of cancellations as we get near deliveries in 2023.
If Tesla continues down this dark road of thinking everybody buys into FSD and no mirrors and no round steering wheel and no stalk and who knows what else. After the Tesla crazy’s complete their purchase, many more will just decide to pass.

 

[Crissa]

I think there will be far greater number of cancellations as we get near deliveries in 2023.

This is true. Less than 10% of Model 3 orders had been cancelled in their first full year of deliveries. But ultimately they ended up with a 20% cancellation rate.

If Tesla continues down this dark road of thinking everybody buys into FSD and no mirrors and no round steering wheel and no stalk and who knows what else. After the Tesla crazy’s complete their purchase, many more will just decide to pass.

You really think most people care about mirrors and stalks? I don't.

-Crissa

 

[FutureBoy]

If Tesla continues down this dark road of thinking everybody buys into FSD and no mirrors and no round steering wheel and no stalk and who knows what else. After the Tesla crazy’s complete their purchase, many more will just decide to pass.

I think this is going to be a butt in seats thing. None of us have yet tried the reported new configuration. Some of the ideas I immediately like. Some of them I don't. Once a number of CTs are out and about I fully intend to do a test ride/drive. That will be the deciding factor for me. If the yoke/round steering is a choice, I'll make a decision. For the other features, I'll see how they feel and how much I like them. Overall I'll error on the side of trusting Tesla though because the rest of the CT is so life-changing that I can deal with a little inconvenience for the short time till FSD is solid.

Many Tesla owners talk about how getting butts in seats often turns a person from being curious to only wanting to drive an EV. I bet that having people test drive the new features will help solidify or change people's ideas about these new features.

 

[EMguy]

I suspect a fair amount of Cybertruck reservation holders also placed reservations on other EVs. The number of reservations that get canceled will depend partially on whether Rivian, Lucid, Ford, etc can deliver a suitable EV for one's needs prior to Tesla.

I plan to buy 2 new EVs in the next 2 years. One of them will be a truck. The Rivian bed is too short for me. The Hummer is too expensive. If Ford can produce a reasonably priced truck with 300 mile range before I get my Cybertruck delivered, I'll cancel my reservation. If not, I'll happily take the Cybertruck.

I bet many reservation holders are in similar positions. Maybe some will take the Rivian if it can be delivered first, which is likely for many people who didn't reserve early, or maybe some don't mind paying the premium for a Hummer, or maybe some would take a non EV truck if the Cybertruck takes too long for delivery.