What percentage of pre-orders will actually buy?

[TessP100D]

This is true. Less than 10% of Model 3 orders had been cancelled in their first full year of deliveries. But ultimately they ended up with a 20% cancellation rate.


You really think most people care about mirrors and stalks? I don't.

-Crissa

Yes I do think that.

 

[TessP100D]

I suspect a fair amount of Cybertruck reservation holders also placed reservations on other EVs. The number of reservations that get canceled will depend partially on whether Rivian, Lucid, Ford, etc can deliver a suitable EV for one's needs prior to Tesla.

I plan to buy 2 new EVs in the next 2 years. One of them will be a truck. The Rivian bed is too short for me. The Hummer is too expensive. If Ford can produce a reasonably priced truck with 300 mile range before I get my Cybertruck delivered, I'll cancel my reservation. If not, I'll happily take the Cybertruck.

I bet many reservation holders are in similar positions.

i have been a Ford guy all my life. Great trucks. I seriously do not think the CT will arrive until 2023, so my bet is on Ford to beat them to the market.

 

[FutureBoy]

i have been a Ford guy all my life. Great trucks. I seriously do not think the CT will arrive until 2023, so my bet is on Ford to beat them to the market.

Are you talking ANY CTs? Or just YOUR CT?

I fully expect that there will be CTs shipping in 2022. Tesla has every motivation to get them out and sold. Depending on how far down the list you are though, you may not get your till 2023 or maybe even later. It will really all depend on how fast they can get the kinks out of the machine that builds the machine.

 

[TessP100D]

Are you talking ANY CTs? Or just YOUR CT?

I fully expect that there will be CTs shipping in 2022. Tesla has every motivation to get them out and sold. Depending on how far down the list you are though, you may not get your till 2023 or maybe even later. It will really all depend on how fast they can get the kinks out of the machine that builds the machine.

I hope they ship in 2022, but for a lot of reasons I don’t actually think they will ship until 2023. I’m pretty up on the list, if that even matters.

 

[Timmo]

It doesn't really matter if the final number is 25% or 75% of the initial orders that don't pan out, although it will be 25%. Either way for the first few years of production people are going to be waiting in line to actually get a Cybertruck. That's been the history of new Tesla lines and will be even more so for this truck. Other lines have not generated the same numbers of interest from non-Tesla owners. The Model 3 cranked those numbers up but the Cybertruck even more.

Possibly high pre orders because of price point? If Tesla doesn’t honor the 49k for my dual motor I ordered( not including the 8k rebate) then I go to Subaru with 12,500 rebate and 10k less

 

[Crissa]

Possibly high pre orders because of price point? If Tesla doesn’t honor the 49k for my dual motor I ordered( not including the 8k rebate) then I go to Subaru with 12,500 rebate and 10k less

Subaru has a BEV truck?

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Subaru has a BEV truck?

Presumably he’s referring to the Subaro Solara.

Only, I don’t think it will get a $12,500 rebate since it’s unlikely to be made in a union shop in the US. It’s also unlikely to have a battery made in the US… so probably just $7,500?

 

[Crissa]

The Solterra? That's barely an SUV let alone a truck.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

The Solterra? That's barely an SUV let alone a truck.

Yeah, that’s the one I was thinking of. I wasn’t super impressed, but just teasers for the moment. One thing I did like is it seems like it has a bit of clearance and off-road capable tires which my Model Y lacks.

It’s the only thing EV with the Subaru name coming down the pike.