Reservation Tracker Analysis

[KHappe]

I tried playing with code behind the Cybertruck Tracker Data GoogleDoc and didnt get very far.

I decided to write a program to read the existing data and reformat it to something that made sense to me.
It doesn't do anything with the reformatted file. Just writes it to local disk.

I've tried to parse all of the perinate info specific to the Reservation itself.
I didn't try and parse estimated position etc.

The code ain't pretty but it may be useful.
If you want to use it go ahead and use it

C# code created in VS 2022.

https://github.com/KHappe/CyberTruckTrackerDataAnalysis


UPDATE 6/15/23

Start playing with CyberTruck analysis program again.
Here are the latest results.

I'm using the Tracker data from earlier in the week.

CyberTruck tracker data analysis.

Determining place in line by Qtr

Calculations for 2019.Q4 and 2020.Q1 are not very accurate. Post 2020.Q1 the calculations are better, but are still rough.
From that point we use Tesla's quarterly delivery numbers to better adjust the starting position for each quarter.
Assumption that some orders are cancelled, adding a 5% estimate on the number of deliveries cancelled per quarter.

Including a break out of the Non Us and Tx totals. These values may adjust position in line.
The Tx based reservations number have a higher chance of being moved up in the line, due to Tesla's standard practices of delivering first to local locations first.
However, the adjustments should not be significant.

The total for Tx is a running total.

Quarter: 2019 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~112744124 thru ~113200332 =
~ 456,208 Possible reservations.
1,850 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 1,386 Non US reservations.
= 0 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113200353 thru ~113367251 =
~ 166,898 Possible reservations.
2,064 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 171 Non US reservations.
- 88,400 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 4,420 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 337,222 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113367312 thru ~113597270 =
~ 229,958 Possible reservations.
2,364 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 263 Non US reservations.
- 90,650 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 4,532 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 411,129 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q3
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113597364 thru ~114005887 =
~ 408,523 Possible reservations.
2,647 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 150 Non US reservations.
- 139,300 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 6,965 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 545,642 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114005887 thru ~114335662 =
~ 329,775 Possible reservations.
2,852 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 100 Non US reservations.
- 180,570 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 9,028 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 807,750 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114335662 thru ~114730961 =
~ 395,299 Possible reservations.
3,066 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 100 Non US reservations.
- 184,800 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 9,240 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 947,827 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114731065 thru ~115239436 =
~ 508,371 Possible reservations.
3,300 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 138 Non US reservations.
- 201,250 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 10,062 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,148,986 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q3
Tracker reservation numbers: ~115239499 thru ~115750658 =
~ 511,159 Possible reservations.
3,477 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 96 Non US reservations.
- 241,300 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 12,065 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,445,907 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~115750778 thru ~116307813 =
~ 557,035 Possible reservations.
3,596 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 77 Non US reservations.
- 308,600 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 15,430 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,703,605 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~116308235 thru ~116880204 =
~ 571,969 Possible reservations.
3,652 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 35 Non US reservations.
- 310,048 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 15,502 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,936,533 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~116882431 thru ~117490485 =
~ 608,054 Possible reservations.
3,732 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 49 Non US reservations.
- 254,695 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 12,735 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,182,917 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q3
Tracker reservation numbers: ~117490970 thru ~117947824 =
~ 456,854 Possible reservations.
3,763 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 10 Non US reservations.
- 343,830 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 17,192 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,523,492 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~117948189 thru ~118267942 =
~ 319,753 Possible reservations.
3,788 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 7 Non US reservations.
- 405,278 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 20,264 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,619,314 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2023 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~118269364 thru ~118840092 =
~ 570,728 Possible reservations.
3,811 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 22 Non US reservations.
- 422,875 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 21,144 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,513,518 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2023 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~118840271 thru ~119282704 =
~ 442,433 Possible reservations.
3,828 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 9 Non US reservations.
- 0 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 0 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,640,205 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Sponsored

 

[FutureBoy]

No spam, no viruses, no Trojans etc.

LOL.

And if someone wanted to get people to download a virus/Trojan/spam isn’t this exactly what they would say?

Separate from that though.Nice job on the effort. Don’t have time to look at the moment but good job putting it out.

 

[Ogre]

Thanks for this!

I won’t use it, but I appreciate the efforts.

 

[WildhavenMI]

I provide no support on this code.

^^this is how you know the post was written by a real, frazzled, (likely staff) engineer

 

[KHappe]

^^this is how you know the post was written by a real, frazzled, (likely staff) engineer

Guilty.
Software Architect

 

[Jedat]

Why not put it up on GitHub instead?

 

[KHappe]

Good idea. Seldom use Github.. We have corp repos.

https://github.com/KHappe/CyberTruckTrackerDataAnalysis

 

[CyberGus]

I'll be happy to sell anyone their Reservation data as an NFT for 10 ETH

 

[CyberGus]

Good idea. Seldom use Github.. We have corp repos.

https://github.com/KHappe/CyberTruckTrackerDataAnalysis

For teh Giggles, I searched Github for the term "cybertruck". To my shock, I found a project that pre-dates the CT reveal by several months!

CyberTruckChallenge19​

Android security workshop taught at the CyberTruck Challenge 2019 (Detroit USA). Further info at https://www.cybertruckchallenge.org​

Description​

A new mobile remote keyless system "CyberTruck" has been implemented by one of the most well-known car security companies "NowSecure Mobile Vehicles". The car security company has ensured that the system is entirely uncrackable and therefore attackers will not be able to recover secrets within the mobile application.​

https://github.com/nowsecure/cybertruckchallenge19​

​

​

I mean, what the hell??

 

[KHappe]

Start playing with CyberTruck analysis program again.
Here are the latest results.

I'm using the Tracker data from earlier in the week.

CyberTruck tracker data analysis.

Determining place in line by Qtr

Calculations for 2019.Q4 and 2020.Q1 are not very accurate. Post 2020.Q1 the calculations are better, but are still rough.
From that point we use Tesla's quarterly delivery numbers to better adjust the starting position for each quarter.
Assumption that some orders are cancelled, adding a 5% estimate on the number of deliveries cancelled per quarter.

Including a break out of the Non Us and Tx totals. These values may adjust position in line.
The Tx based reservations number have a higher chance of being moved up in the line, due to Tesla's standard practices of delivering first to local locations first.
However, the adjustments should not be significant.

The total for Tx is a running total.

Quarter: 2019 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~112744124 thru ~113200332 =
~ 456,208 Possible reservations.
1,850 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 1,386 Non US reservations.
= 0 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113200353 thru ~113367251 =
~ 166,898 Possible reservations.
2,064 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 171 Non US reservations.
- 88,400 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 4,420 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 337,222 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113367312 thru ~113597270 =
~ 229,958 Possible reservations.
2,364 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 263 Non US reservations.
- 90,650 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 4,532 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 411,129 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q3
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113597364 thru ~114005887 =
~ 408,523 Possible reservations.
2,647 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 150 Non US reservations.
- 139,300 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 6,965 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 545,642 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114005887 thru ~114335662 =
~ 329,775 Possible reservations.
2,852 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 100 Non US reservations.
- 180,570 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 9,028 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 807,750 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114335662 thru ~114730961 =
~ 395,299 Possible reservations.
3,066 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 100 Non US reservations.
- 184,800 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 9,240 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 947,827 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114731065 thru ~115239436 =
~ 508,371 Possible reservations.
3,300 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 138 Non US reservations.
- 201,250 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 10,062 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,148,986 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q3
Tracker reservation numbers: ~115239499 thru ~115750658 =
~ 511,159 Possible reservations.
3,477 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 96 Non US reservations.
- 241,300 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 12,065 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,445,907 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~115750778 thru ~116307813 =
~ 557,035 Possible reservations.
3,596 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 77 Non US reservations.
- 308,600 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 15,430 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,703,605 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~116308235 thru ~116880204 =
~ 571,969 Possible reservations.
3,652 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 35 Non US reservations.
- 310,048 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 15,502 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,936,533 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~116882431 thru ~117490485 =
~ 608,054 Possible reservations.
3,732 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 49 Non US reservations.
- 254,695 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 12,735 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,182,917 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q3
Tracker reservation numbers: ~117490970 thru ~117947824 =
~ 456,854 Possible reservations.
3,763 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 10 Non US reservations.
- 343,830 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 17,192 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,523,492 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~117948189 thru ~118267942 =
~ 319,753 Possible reservations.
3,788 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 7 Non US reservations.
- 405,278 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 20,264 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,619,314 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2023 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~118269364 thru ~118840092 =
~ 570,728 Possible reservations.
3,811 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 22 Non US reservations.
- 422,875 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 21,144 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,513,518 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2023 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~118840271 thru ~119282704 =
~ 442,433 Possible reservations.
3,828 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 9 Non US reservations.
- 0 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 0 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,640,205 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I tried playing with code behind the Cybertruck Tracker Data GoogleDoc and didnt get very far.

I decided to write a program to read the existing data and reformat it to something that made sense to me.
It doesn't do anything with the reformatted file. Just writes it to local disk.

I've tried to parse all of the perinate info specific to the Reservation itself.
I didn't try and parse estimated position etc.

The code ain't pretty but it may be useful.
If you want to use it go ahead and use it

C# code created in VS 2022.

https://github.com/KHappe/CyberTruckTrackerDataAnalysis


UPDATE 6/15/23

Start playing with CyberTruck analysis program again.
Here are the latest results.

I'm using the Tracker data from earlier in the week.

CyberTruck tracker data analysis.

Determining place in line by Qtr

Calculations for 2019.Q4 and 2020.Q1 are not very accurate. Post 2020.Q1 the calculations are better, but are still rough.
From that point we use Tesla's quarterly delivery numbers to better adjust the starting position for each quarter.
Assumption that some orders are cancelled, adding a 5% estimate on the number of deliveries cancelled per quarter.

Including a break out of the Non Us and Tx totals. These values may adjust position in line.
The Tx based reservations number have a higher chance of being moved up in the line, due to Tesla's standard practices of delivering first to local locations first.
However, the adjustments should not be significant.

The total for Tx is a running total.

Quarter: 2019 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~112744124 thru ~113200332 =
~ 456,208 Possible reservations.
1,850 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 1,386 Non US reservations.
= 0 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113200353 thru ~113367251 =
~ 166,898 Possible reservations.
2,064 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 171 Non US reservations.
- 88,400 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 4,420 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 337,222 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113367312 thru ~113597270 =
~ 229,958 Possible reservations.
2,364 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 263 Non US reservations.
- 90,650 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 4,532 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 411,129 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q3
Tracker reservation numbers: ~113597364 thru ~114005887 =
~ 408,523 Possible reservations.
2,647 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 150 Non US reservations.
- 139,300 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 6,965 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 545,642 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2020 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114005887 thru ~114335662 =
~ 329,775 Possible reservations.
2,852 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 100 Non US reservations.
- 180,570 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 9,028 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 807,750 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114335662 thru ~114730961 =
~ 395,299 Possible reservations.
3,066 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 100 Non US reservations.
- 184,800 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 9,240 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 947,827 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~114731065 thru ~115239436 =
~ 508,371 Possible reservations.
3,300 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 138 Non US reservations.
- 201,250 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 10,062 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,148,986 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q3
Tracker reservation numbers: ~115239499 thru ~115750658 =
~ 511,159 Possible reservations.
3,477 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 96 Non US reservations.
- 241,300 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 12,065 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,445,907 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2021 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~115750778 thru ~116307813 =
~ 557,035 Possible reservations.
3,596 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 77 Non US reservations.
- 308,600 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 15,430 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,703,605 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~116308235 thru ~116880204 =
~ 571,969 Possible reservations.
3,652 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 35 Non US reservations.
- 310,048 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 15,502 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 1,936,533 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~116882431 thru ~117490485 =
~ 608,054 Possible reservations.
3,732 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 49 Non US reservations.
- 254,695 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 12,735 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,182,917 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q3
Tracker reservation numbers: ~117490970 thru ~117947824 =
~ 456,854 Possible reservations.
3,763 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 10 Non US reservations.
- 343,830 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 17,192 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,523,492 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2022 Q4
Tracker reservation numbers: ~117948189 thru ~118267942 =
~ 319,753 Possible reservations.
3,788 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 7 Non US reservations.
- 405,278 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 20,264 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,619,314 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2023 Q1
Tracker reservation numbers: ~118269364 thru ~118840092 =
~ 570,728 Possible reservations.
3,811 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 22 Non US reservations.
- 422,875 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 21,144 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,513,518 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

Quarter: 2023 Q2
Tracker reservation numbers: ~118840271 thru ~119282704 =
~ 442,433 Possible reservations.
3,828 Texas reservations. (info only - running total)
- 9 Non US reservations.
- 0 Deliveries for quarter. Data provided by Tesla.
- 0 Estimated 5% cancelled orders.
= 2,640,205 Estimated place in line from start of Quarter.

At one point in time it was suggested that Tesla has a single order numbering system for everything it sells: cars, chargers, power walls, tshirts, fobs, etc. if so, that would have a huge impact on your numbers. One way to tell would be to compare order numbers of different items bought from Tesla in a short span of time.

 

[KHappe]

At one point in time it was suggested that Tesla has a single order numbering system for everything it sells: cars, chargers, power walls, tshirts, fobs, etc. if so, that would have a huge impact on your numbers. One way to tell would be to compare order numbers of different items bought from Tesla in a short span of time.

I am assuming that there is one ordering system. Everything that is ordered uses this system.
So cars, solar etc would all use this system.

That is why I'm removing the documented deliveries counts from the running reservation totals.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I am assuming that there is one ordering system. Everything that is ordered uses this system.
So cars, solar etc would all use this system.

That is why I'm removing the documented deliveries counts from the running reservation totals.

Yes, and I think that was a good idea and added some credibility to what you did, but deliveries of cars is probably not the largest number of things that need to be removed. Is there any way to count the number of 'anything' that was ordered and delivered? Just for myself I probably have ordered 5x (or more) things from Tesla as the number of cars I have bought from or ordered from them. Your number [of subtractions] seems low by an order of magnitude.

 

[KHappe]

Yes, and I think that was a good idea and added some credibility to what you did, but deliveries of cars is probably not the largest number of things that need to be removed. Is there any way to count the number of 'anything' that was ordered and delivered? Just for myself I probably have ordered 5x (or more) things from Tesla as the number of cars I have bought from or ordered from them. Your number [of subtractions] seems low by an order of magnitude.

I really know only 2 facts.

1. The data in the Tracker spreadsheet.
2. The quarterly deliveries reported by Tesla.

If there is more ready available data, I would take it into consideration.

I had to massage the data in the spreadsheet somewhat. The Quarter boundaries were not crisp.
Reservation numbers and dates in the spreadsheet were not in sync. The date order did not match the reservation number order.
I had to assume the Reservation numbers were accurate. I then massaged the dates to make be in the same order as the Reservation order. There weren't a lot of changes. And it only affected the Reservations at the end and beginning of a quarter.

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