Reuters Reporting that Tesla can only build 24,000 CTs per year due to 4680 battery production issues

[ElectricSheep]

Reuters is reporting that the issues with 4680 production are currently limiting production to a run rate of 24,000 per year.

"At the moment, Tesla's Austin factory takes about 16 weeks to make 10 million 4680 cells, according to Reuters calculations based on figures from Tesla, verified by the three sources."

The more worrisome aspect of the report is that Tesla is unsure of some of the batteries are good or not for months after manufacture.

"One of the sources with knowledge of the matter, said specifically it was about building data infrastructure around Tesla's battery development, manufacturing and in-field use because in some cases the flaws were hidden in the coating and did not show up for a few months down the road."

Here is the article for those interested: https://www.reuters.com/business/au...-tesla-descends-into-battery-hell-2023-12-21/

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[Eddyrelik]

I guess another question that the article doesn't mention, is how much of the 4680 production is being used for Model Y. That would have been a harder hitting FUD piece haha

 

[lowtek]

Tesla said specifically they will ramp cell production with the truck.

Typical Reuters half baked click bait.

 

[JBee]

This is not news if the production rate stays the same.

10m / 16 weeks is 625k week so around 24k CTs per year at 1344cells/123kWh each.

But just from one line. There is at least one more being produced right now. The 1st one is still ramping, the second one will ramp much faster. That's more like 50k next year which is within expectations given the timing for full capacity to be in 2025.

 

[cvalue13]

This is not news if the production rate stays the same.

I think also the 10M in 16W rate it’s referring to is the period between the June 23 10M cell announcement and the October 20M announcement

I’d be surprised if Tesla plateaued in October

 

[Crissa]

That's the same number of cells they made six months ago.

Why does Reuters think that they wouldn't have increased the number pf lines and efficiency in the last six months? Or in the next?

We don't expect them to make more than 25k in the next six months.

-Crissa

 

[CyberExperience]

The article probably does have some merit. The 4680 has presented a challenge to build from the beginning. I can believe that the production numbers are low at this time, but there have been a lot of production issues that the very smart people at Tesla have overcome. I am sure they will figure it out and numbers produced will rise. I however would not want to be the owner of a CT that had some of the 4680 batteries that are not perfect.

 

[Kahpernicus]

That's the same number of cells they made six months ago.

Why does Reuters think that they wouldn't have increased the number pf lines and efficiency in the last six months? Or in the next?

We don't expect them to make more than 25k in the next six months.

-Crissa

Because they're still building out their validation system.

It's not a secret that tesla's new battery efforts haven't gone quite as well as planned.

Perhaps more problematic, Tesla's Baglino told a fireside chat at a battery conference in March that Tesla was still building a completely new quality verification system so they could weed out cells with flaws in coating.

One of the sources with knowledge of the matter, said specifically it was about building data infrastructure around Tesla's battery development, manufacturing and in-field use because in some cases the flaws were hidden in the coating and did not show up for a few months down the road.

In other words, Tesla doesn't quite know yet which dry cells are good, and which ones need to be junked, the source said.

They said Tesla had been focusing on establishing robust know-how to produce batteries without flaws first time round. It's a time-consuming process but, "once you crack the code and establish stability, it is like exponential", one of them said.

 

[awhehackeur]

“One of the sources with knowledge of the matter”, but never the actual name, location or time… a typical fake news hit piece once a week from the trashed publishers AP, Reuter and alike… sigh!

 

[drrjv]

Maybe I should be happy I haven’t gotten my invite yet!

“in some cases the flaws were hidden in the coating and did not show up for a few months down the road.

In other words, Tesla doesn't quite know yet which dry cells are good, and which ones need to be junked, the source said.”

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...-tesla-descends-into-battery-hell-2023-12-21/

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