Number of Cybertrucks manufactured per year

ldjessee

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I think they will make them as fast as they can, allowing for upgrades, adding additional shifts, etc.

They need to get solar covered parking, would help charge the cars.

Also, I see a tunnel to Houston and/or Galveston for more ship base shipping. Not sure why they would need a tunnel to the airport... but if you are going to do a tunnel to communities for housing, then might as well do a stop at the Airport and try to get the city to pay for an extension that goes to common tourist/travel spots in the Austin area.

I know I loved being able to jump on the Subway in DC or the train in Copenhagen to get to my hotel. No needing to worry about taxis, etc.
Sponsored

 

Ogre

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Look at Shanghai for an example of what to expect.

They will build it out and capacity will keep expanding year over year.

Might be 50k in 2023 as they ramp, then 250k in 2024, 300k in 2025… up to the maximum capacity of the Gigapress of ~450-500k per year. Then they might add additional Gigapresses.

We are 2 years after Shanghai launch and they are pushing out cars at a pace of 1m/ year and expect to add 50% more capacity by year end. Texas is more than double the size of Shanghai so I think 2m is a reasonable guess at total capacity with Cybertruck being roughly 1/3 - 1/2 of that.
 

rr6013

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I'm guessing its a parking garage for short term storage of newly produced vehicles prior to shipping. They gonna need a lot more parking space than they currently have for all these new vehicles coming out of that factory in the next few years.
Only structure that takes into consideration Colorado River flood plane, affords operational advantages and maximizes the property.

Hope you nailed it!
 

Quicksilver

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Only structure that takes into consideration Colorado River flood plane, affords operational advantages and maximizes the property.
All you have to do is coat the outside with a material that stops hydrostatic pressure and you're good. They do it all the time with underground and earth sheltered homes.
 

CostcoSamples

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There's no evidence of anyone working on a LFP 4680 at this point.

Until this year, non-Chinese LFP development was at a standstill.

-Crissa
That's news to me. I thought LFP was the ONLY chemistry currently being offered in the 4680 format? Given the low range of the current 4680 equipped Model Ys... I swear I heard it somewhere, don't recall where.
 


Ogre

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That's news to me. I thought LFP was the ONLY chemistry currently being offered in the 4680 format? Given the low range of the current 4680 equipped Model Ys... I swear I heard it somewhere, don't recall where.
There are no LFP 4680s.

The shipping 4680 Model Ys are basically 1st Generation cells. Will improve quickly, but they are roughly equal to the shipping Model Y LR in terms of efficiency and charge a bit faster.
 

CyberGus

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That's news to me. I thought LFP was the ONLY chemistry currently being offered in the 4680 format? Given the low range of the current 4680 equipped Model Ys... I swear I heard it somewhere, don't recall where.
Tesla Cybertruck Number of Cybertrucks manufactured per year tesla_battery_day_chemistries_categories


This is Tesla's chart from battery day. The CT is slated to get high-nickel cells.

FYI, a significant difference between LFP and the high-nickel cell is the flammability of the electrolyte. LFP is significantly safer when shorted. When punctured, the nickel cells tend to ummm explode, which probably explains the industrial-strength can found during the recent 4680 teardown. Inversely, LFP is suitable for pouch-like prismatic cells.

So it's certainly possible to put LFP into a cell can, but this is a significant reduction in Wh/kg, and has a limited use-case.
 

Crissa

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LFP need significant help to catch up to the energy density of NCA batteries, let alone NMC. I know that's alot of TLAs, but...

Someone might do it, because there is an advantage to having basically swap-in cells. But at the pack level, you can do things to bring them closer to parity. Even if you end up with different cells, does it matter when the pack slots in the same?

Now that the patents on LFP are expiring, we'll see them being made in more places.

-Crissa
 

ldjessee

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Now that the patents on LFP are expiring, we'll see them being made in more places.

-Crissa
Patents expiring are HUGE. Many companies will now be willing to invest, knowing they will not have to pay someone, but hopefully patent some improvement that others will think is worth it to pay to license.
 

Ogre

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Patents expiring are HUGE. Many companies will now be willing to invest, knowing they will not have to pay someone, but hopefully patent some improvement that others will think is worth it to pay to license.
Sort of.

Patents were US only so LFP has been massively popular in China. Basically the patents open the floodgates for Chinese companies to push their existing tech into the US.
 


charliemagpie

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Sort of.

Patents were US only so LFP has been massively popular in China. Basically the patents open the floodgates for Chinese companies to push their existing tech into the US.
That is so bad.

That a country, which has its hands tied, can be at a competitive disadvantage because another country has had time to improve on a patent it does not own.
 

Crissa

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That is so bad.

That a country, which has its hands tied, can be at a competitive disadvantage because another country has had time to improve on a patent it does not own.
Naw, we can copy them just as they copied before.

-Crissa
 

Ogre

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That is so bad.

That a country, which has its hands tied, can be at a competitive disadvantage because another country has had time to improve on a patent it does not own.
Should have spent the money separately protecting their IP in China. They didn’t think the patents would turn out that valuable.

I‘m kind of the wrong person to talk to about this though because I think patents frequently impair innovation more than they help it.
 
 




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