Solid State Battery Hype Train

[SpaceYooper]

Is it just me and my news feed or are solid state batteries actually starting to make real headwinds. I see Mercedes among others are actually going to be using SS in some production vehicles. I know they are still expensive and cost prohibitive for mass production but I can't help but wonder how close we are to affordable SS batteries being the standard.

Question 1. Is it inevitable that SS batteries are the future of mass produced EVs to include Tesla?

Question 2. If yes to Q1, when do you think Tesla moves to SS? 10 yrs, 15 yrs, 20 yrs? Answer however you like, but I'm looking for a guess with a number. I know @Crissa will give some non-committal answer like "when it makes sense for Tesla",

Question 3. Do the advancements in SS batteries make you question buying a non-SS battery EV in the near future?

My answers are
1. Yes
2. 11.75 yrs. After absolutely dominating the mass production industry with 4680 battery tech and chemistry for nearly a decade, in the summer of 2032 we'll hear news that Tesla is transitioning to SS and that will be the true catalyst that puts EV sales over ICE in the following decade.
3. No, not really, but it does make me question if I will hold the CT for as long as I thought I would. Which then makes me look at my ROI vs buying an ICE truck, which then really cements my decision about not being willing to spend over the 2019 release price for a 500+ mile range, AWD capable, full size truck.

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[fhteagle]

1. No, not inevitable. If they crack the rechargeability problem with Lithium-air batteries, for example, today's solid state tech could look positively Cro magnon in no time.

2. Guessing a number of years for solid state batteries to have commercial viability is never going to be precise. Toyota has been getting it wrong for what, a decade now?

3. If you're always looking at what's coming up, you will perennially Osborne Effect yourself out of the market. At some point what's available now is a good deal, and worth taking.

 

[Diehard]

The question is can you afford to wait for a pie in the sky? Do you have the time? If you never owned an EV, any EV with the current battery tech is a big enough difference to put a smile on your face. Most expected to last over 100K. If you do wait for SS and get it before that heart attack around the corner gets you, would you have problem enjoying it because you didn’t wait for the next tech? If you like the truck, don’t worry about the battery, go for it.

 

[SpaceYooper]

Yes, I have time to wait.

 

[SpaceYooper]

3. If you're always looking at what's coming up, you will perennially Osborne Effect yourself out of the market. At some point what's available now is a good deal, and worth taking.

I really only look at what is coming when what is available isn't good enough or is barely good enough. I've always maintained the only EV truck for me is one that can get that 500+ mile range, AWD capable, and is a full-size truck. Right now there are 0 of those available for purchase today, and maybe 2 coming in the next few years with the claims from the Tesla and Ram.

 

[HaulingAss]

1. No, not inevitable. If they crack the rechargeability problem with Lithium-air batteries, for example, today's solid state tech could look positively Cro magnon in no time.

2. Guessing a number of years for solid state batteries to have commercial viability is never going to be precise. Toyota has been getting it wrong for what, a decade now?

3. If you're always looking at what's coming up, you will perennially Osborne Effect yourself out of the market. At some point what's available now is a good deal, and worth taking.

All very good points. Sure, it would be great if an EV could made 250-500 lbs. lighter with the same range and cost because then you would have essentially the same car, but it would weigh less.

But current battery tech is pretty damn awesome and a lot people don't understand this because the media has made it sound like EV's are not quite ready for primetime due to the current battery tech. The real driver of change in batteries is making them cheaper and faster. That's what the 4680 cell with dry electrode process was designed to address.

 

[intimidator]

3. No, not really, but it does make me question if I will hold the CT for as long as I thought I would. Which then makes me look at my ROI vs buying an ICE truck, which then really cements my decision about not being willing to spend over the 2019 release price for a 500+ mile range, AWD capable, full size truck.

If Tesla can sell a truck in 2024, for the same price as promised in 2019, that would surely be a miracle.

I can't wait until Tesla does release it's new, updated CyberTruck pricing for those that will take delivery in 2024 so we can put that question to bed. But I hope everyone recognizes Tesla CHANGES prices on all their other current vehicles quite frequently, so initial pricing of course will not be the final, forever price.

 

[Crimson_Fate]

The only reason I am getting a tri/Quad motor CT is because of the 500 mile range which in reality will only give me about 300 miles ( if I want to stick to the 80/20 battery charge)

SS batteries (like LFP) should allow a 300 mile range vehicle to actually get 300 mile range while still offering better performance then LFP.

If anyone actually had a truck with a proven SS battery I would likely take it over a CT with 4680's. .

 

[intimidator]

Solid State batteries for vehicles will be wonderfully, when and if that ever happens.

I would not wait for them before buying an EV. (I reserved a Cybertruck in Nov 2019, and can't wait to get mine, but bought a Ford Lightning in the meantime. Today is the best day to go EVing)

Look how long it took for the CyberTruck to go from Announcement to delivery to customers. Look how long it has taken for the Semi. Or the Roadster.

Or consider the time it has taken to make just a form factor change from 2170s to 4680s.

Someday, when you buy your 3rd EV maybe, it could have solid state batteries, but why wait when it might be 10 years away.

 

[JRu]

The answer is obvious! Toyota's answer when SS will be mass producible is the same as Elon's answer to FSD. They'll both be ready "this year"

 

[Crimson_Fate]

But I hope everyone recognizes Tesla CHANGES prices on all their other current vehicles quite frequently, so initial pricing of course will not be the final, forever price.

It kind of is locked for the next 4-5 years which is kind of forever for a car model. Tesla has over 1.5M reservations so as soon as Tesla announces the price those reservation holders will be either cancelling or locking in that price so it can possibly take 4+ years before some people (who have a current reservation) get their vehicle .

Tesla can change that price for new reservations but that locked in price does not change when Tesla changes their prices.

Imagine if the model Y initially had 1.5M reservations, it has only been shipping for 3 years.

 

[SpaceYooper]

Someday, when you buy your 3rd EV maybe, it could have solid state batteries, but why wait when it might be 10 years away.

3 EVs in the next 10 years isn't the way I buy and use vehicles. I might own 3-4 more trucks in my driving life over the next 40 years.

To your point of why wait; because I'm not buying the CT for any reason greater than financial sense and it barely fits that mold (for me). I'm not going to use it as a robo-taxi. I normally buy used because of how quickly new vehicle value depreciates. If I buy a new CT for $70k and hold onto it for a decade then I break even in terms of overall ownership costs to me (if the insurance isn't much more expensive) vs buying a used $40k ICE vehicle. Everything after that 10 years is gravy. So if I felt confident that SS batteries would be affordably put into full-size, AWD or 4x4, 500-mile range trucks in the next 10 years, maybe I'd buy one more used truck...probably in 2025 or later, since there isn't too much wrong with my current truck (13' F150 with 138k miles on it).

I'm just trying to get an idea from people who pay attention to this stuff, where they think we're headed, and when. I used to think SS batteries were too far off to even think about. I don't think that is the case anymore, though I'm still not sure about their price. No FOMO here. What I can do financially and what I choose to do are not the same. There are a lot of trucks on the market today that meet my needs.

 

[jerhenderson]

The only reason I am getting a tri/Quad motor CT is because of the 500 mile range which in reality will only give me about 300 miles ( if I want to stick to the 80/20 battery charge)

SS batteries (like LFP) should allow a 300 mile range vehicle to actually get 300 mile range while still offering better performance then LFP.

If anyone actually had a truck with a proven SS battery I would likely take it over a CT with 4680's. .

ummm..... 500 miles at 80/20 is 400, not 300.

 

[HaulingAss]

SS batteries (like LFP) should allow a 300 mile range vehicle to actually get 300 mile range while still offering better performance then LFP.

If anyone actually had a truck with a proven SS battery I would likely take it over a CT with 4680's. .

What do you mean by a "proven solid-state battery"? You say you would take the solid-state battery over the 4680 battery but I think that would depend upon the relative price of each and longevity. Price, not chemistry, is the primary metric that determines market acceptance as long as the battery has the required longevity and range for the weight.

Currently available solid state batteries don't have the required longevity and they cost more so they are a non-starter. If and when they become commercially viable in the mass market, Tesla will adopt them, not before. The new vehicle buyer does not care about battery chemistry, they care about range, lifespan and price.

I'm shocked how quickly my Model 3 Performance adds range at even a lowly 250 kW Supercharger, typical stop is 15 minutes (and it's a 5 year old car). It's a rare Supercharging stop that I actually have to wait for it to charge.

Earlier this year I bought another 5-year-old RWD LR Model 3 just like my wife's car, one of the first ones out of the Fremont factory in early 2018. It has over 70,000 miles on it and still charges to 305 miles relative to the 310-mile range it had when new. I have zero problems with the batteries available 5 years ago other than it would be nice if they cost less (they add around $10K to the price of the car).

If someone develops a better, cheaper battery, I'm all for it, but I don't really care what the chemistry is, as long as they can make billions of them cheaply.

 

[Crimson_Fate]

ummm..... 500 miles at 80/20 is 400, not 300.

80% is 400 miles but if you are not letting it drop under 20% that is another 100 miles lost so you have a range of 300 miles if you keep it between 80 & 20

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