Solid State Battery Hype Train

[Crimson_Fate]

What do you mean by a "proven solid-state battery"? You say you would take the solid-state battery over the 4680 battery but I think that would depend upon the relative price of each and longevity. Price, not chemistry, is the primary metric that determines market acceptance as long as the battery has the required longevity and range for the weight.

........

If someone develops a better, cheaper battery, I'm all for it, but I don't really care what the chemistry is, as long as they can make billions of them cheaply.

By proven I mean a battery which will allow me to charge from 0 to 100% with no ill effects and with minimum battery loss over 10 years .

I am less concerned with cost of the battery as I am with the range and charging speed of the battery. I want to be able to drive at least 300 miles without needing to recharge and I don't want to have to worry about discharging or charging below or above different levels and when charging to 100% I don't want that last 20% to take hours .

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[intimidator]

It kind of is locked for the next 4-5 years which is kind of forever for a car model. Tesla has over 1.5M reservations so as soon as Tesla announces the price those reservation holders will be either cancelling or locking in that price so it can possibly take 4+ years before some people (who have a current reservation) get their vehicle .

Tesla can change that price for new reservations but that locked in price does not change when Tesla changes their prices.

Imagine if the model Y initially had 1.5M reservations, it has only been shipping for 3 years.

Good point (it will take a while to clear existing reservation holders).

FYI Rivian did not hold the initial price for everyone. They picked a random date out of the air, and said anyone who reserved later than this date (March 1st 2019) would be subject to a price increase on the Max Range R1T.

 

[Crimson_Fate]

Good point (it will take a while to clear existing reservation holders).

FYI Rivian did not hold the initial price for everyone. They picked a random date out of the air, and said anyone who reserved later than this date (March 1st 2019) would be subject to a price increase on the Max Range R1T.

I can see Tesla having one price for anyone who reserved while the estimated prices were still listed on their reservation page (not the actual estimated price) and a different price for those who reserved after it was taken down. But I think we will see one uniform price.

 

[intimidator]

3 EVs in the next 10 years isn't the way I buy and use vehicles. I might own 3-4 more trucks in my driving life over the next 40 years.

To your point of why wait; because I'm not buying the CT for any reason greater than financial sense and it barely fits that mold (for me). I'm not going to use it as a robo-taxi. I normally buy used because of how quickly new vehicle value depreciates. If I buy a new CT for $70k and hold onto it for a decade then I break even in terms of overall ownership costs to me (if the insurance isn't much more expensive) vs buying a used $40k ICE vehicle. Everything after that 10 years is gravy. So if I felt confident that SS batteries would be affordably put into full-size, AWD or 4x4, 500-mile range trucks in the next 10 years, maybe I'd buy one more used truck...probably in 2025 or later, since there isn't too much wrong with my current truck (13' F150 with 138k miles on it).

I'm just trying to get an idea from people who pay attention to this stuff, where they think we're headed, and when. I used to think SS batteries were too far off to even think about. I don't think that is the case anymore, though I'm still not sure about their price. No FOMO here. What I can do financially and what I choose to do are not the same. There are a lot of trucks on the market today that meet my needs.

Understood, i.e. keeping a vehicle a long time. Many prefer to do that. I on the otherhand happen to change vehicles every 3-4 years. At least for the last 20 years.

As far as the promise of Solid State batteries, I am not confident a commercially viable version will happen anytime soon. Definitely not within 5 years. Sandy Munro did a tour of battery maker Amprius in Fremont, CA recently, they have some promising tech...although it is not pure solid state....but they make have something in 4-5 years.

My guess, if solid state becomes a reality it is going to be 2030 or beyond.

 

[Arctic_White]

Is it just me and my news feed or are solid state batteries actually starting to make real headwinds. I see Mercedes among others are actually going to be using SS in some production vehicles. I know they are still expensive and cost prohibitive for mass production but I can't help but wonder how close we are to affordable SS batteries being the standard.

Question 1. Is it inevitable that SS batteries are the future of mass produced EVs to include Tesla?

Question 2. If yes to Q1, when do you think Tesla moves to SS? 10 yrs, 15 yrs, 20 yrs? Answer however you like, but I'm looking for a guess with a number. I know @Crissa will give some non-committal answer like "when it makes sense for Tesla", ?

Question 3. Do the advancements in SS batteries make you question buying a non-SS battery EV in the near future?

My answers are
1. Yes
2. 11.75 yrs. After absolutely dominating the mass production industry with 4680 battery tech and chemistry for nearly a decade, in the summer of 2032 we'll hear news that Tesla is transitioning to SS and that will be the true catalyst that puts EV sales over ICE in the following decade.
3. No, not really, but it does make me question if I will hold the CT for as long as I thought I would. Which then makes me look at my ROI vs buying an ICE truck, which then really cements my decision about not being willing to spend over the 2019 release price for a 500+ mile range, AWD capable, full size truck.

Great post. Just want to interject that sales of EVs will surpass ICE before the end of this decade. In other words, more EVs will be sold than ICE well before Solid-State batteries materialize.

Have you looked at S-curves? The data suggests that by 2027, more than 50% of all new vehicles sold world-wide will be EVs.

 

[BeastSlayer]

I am agnostic on which tech will have a breakthrough. I am simply happy that everyone and his brother is into research to hit the big time in this new frontier.

What perplex me to no end is why Toyota was late in the game when they have the neighbour Panasonic right around the corner.

 

[SpaceYooper]

Have you looked at S-curves? The data suggests that by 2027, more than 50% of all new vehicles sold world-wide will be EVs.

Time will tell, but I don't think we can transition that fast. BEV sales were up to 5.7% in 2022 from 3.4% in 2021. I know if you run that out you'll hit 50% in 2026 or 2027, but then you'd hit 100% in 2028. No way.

I think 30% by 2030 for BEV and PHEV is very realistic.

 

[Arctic_White]

Time will tell, but I don't think we can transition that fast. BEV sales were up to 5.7% in 2022 from 3.4% in 2021. I know if you run that out you'll hit 50% in 2026 or 2027, but then you'd hit 100% in 2028. No way.

I think 30% by 2030 for BEV and PHEV is very realistic.

Only 30% BEV penetration which includes PHEV? Way too low, IMO.

The growth of EVs is remarkable and it has now reached a point where it is but inevitable.

My prediction: 80% penetration by 2030 for full BEVs. Hold me accountable!

 

[SpaceYooper]

My prediction: 80% penetration by 2030 for full BEVs. Hold me accountable!

Will do. When I think of 80% penetration, I'll think of @Arctic_White

 

[HaulingAss]

I bought a used 2018 Model 3 with 70K miles on it. It's had three different owners before I bought it. It still has 305-306 miles of it's original 310 miles of range. I don't think LFP is necessary for great longevity.

I charge to 100% or discharge to below 10% whenever I need to (or sometimes just for convenience) because the battery life is already so good it doesn't really matter. But with more and faster Superchargers being built every week, the need to do that is becoming increasingly rare. I feel like people who think the batteries are not good enough lose sight of how much worse a gas car is in terms of longevity and expense and the inconvenience of needing to visit fueling stations every week.

Sure, battery tech will continue to get better over the next couple of decades, and beyond, but better batteries won't make my EV driving experience substantially better than I get from my five-year-old Model 3's. I imagine on road trips it will turn my typical 15 minute charges into 5 minute charges but I'll still take 15 minutes to finish my rest break. Hopefully I won't have to move my car after 5 minutes! The biggest negative I have with the current battery tech is that if I want to charge while I grab a sit down lunch or dinner, I generally have to move my car before the waiter or waitress brings my food. That's how quick it is.

I do hope battery price declines make EV's more accessible to people with less income because that's what it's going to take to get the last 30% of gasoline cars off the road more quickly.

 

[jerhenderson]

80% is 400 miles but if you are not letting it drop under 20% that is another 100 miles lost so you have a range of 300 miles if you keep it between 80 & 20

you need to relax your range anxiety.

 

[SpaceYooper]

I feel like people who think the batteries are not good enough lose sight of how much worse a gas car is in terms of longevity...

Can you elaborate on this? I didn't lose any miles from a full tank of gas from year 1 to year 10 on my current truck. The only decrease came when I put 35" tires on it. That was a few years ago and nothing has changed since. My previous F250 was the same and I kept the stock-size tires on it from 97-2015. That was a diesel. So I'm not sure what you mean by gas longevity being worse, but we know the batteries will lose somewhere between 5%-12% of their capacity over the first decade (most posts I've seen it happens sooner) and then it will level out but continue to slowly degrade.

 

[Crimson_Fate]

you need to relax your range anxiety.

Its not range anxiety , its just wanting my EV to have the same range as the crappiest range Ice vehicle without negatively impacting the life of the battery.

If you were woken up by a call in the middle of the night and had to get somewhere ASAP that 300 mile range drops instantly to 240 since you will never be 100% charged unless you knew ahead of time you needed it , not that you are going to get that 240 either since its more likely to get about 10% less range in the tesla anyway so that 240 goes to 210. So the reality is about 210 miles on a charge if you completely ignore deep dischargeing and 150 mile range if you don't.

I don't worry about running low or finding a place to charge, I just HATE stopping on relatively short trips where I used to make the round trip without stopping in an ICE car. Thats why I am going for the 500 mile CT and would jump on a 300 mile range car with SS batteries .

I may even go LFP with tesla if they can get a MY size car with over 300 mile range.

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