Update from Elon: Cybertruck production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023

[Cmgarcial]

SOURCE Sawyer Merritt on twitter:

The Cybertruck has been delayed to late 2022. "Production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023". This is per a company wide conference call with employees.​

[Admin addendum: Elon did add this about the Cybertruck: "It will be a special project. Like a glitch in the Matrix. Like if Neo had a car."]









So there you have it folks. Volume production will begin in 2023. If you are 100,000 and above for your place in line, start thinking 2024, or later, the further down the list your spot is.

I guess I'm not too bad off, my reservation for the dual motor is below the 75,000 mark, so if the 2022 production is under 100K, I may have a Christmas present!

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[SpaceDoc]

The Gigapress is being installed *right now*. It's likely to be ready by year end, certainly well before end of year 2022 and will probably idle for quite some time. The Giga is not the problem. The design is not the problem.

The hold up is the 4680 battery process. They had the process working at smaller scale, but when they tried to scale up production of the process, everything went sideways. This isn't really something they could have predicted until they started to scale production.

Honestly this is more concerning than late equipment or late designs because it means they might have to go back to the design board on a very fundamental component of the truck.

As well as every other EV truck maker. Batteries are the rate-limiting factor right now...

 

[Ogre]

??

They built 2 factories in less than 18 months? They might be a few weeks behind schedule but that's a pretty aggressive timeline for building a pair of factories which will be producing half a million vehicles a year each.

I get the frustration over the Cybertruck timeline, but Giga Berlin is likely to be huge and it is definitely not something they rushed out the door without thinking it through.

 

[android04]

I would take bets on Rivan not reaching full production until 2025, GM 2026, Ford 2026. All three will have plenty of delays. Not to mention them all using pouch packs that have a high danger of thermal problems (per Elon).

Rivian actually used the 2170 cell form factor just like Tesla does for the Model 3/Y. And they have been testing their battery tech for many years. I bet they will be just fine.

 

[Ogre]

I guess I'm not too bad off, my reservation for the dual motor is below the 75,000 mark, so if the 2022 production is under 100K, I may have a Christmas present!

For the Model 3 and Model Y, early production was 500-1000 vehicles per week. With full ramp being closer to 5,000 per week. Musk said recently that HW 4 would start shipping with the Cybertruck "In about a year" which would mean a max of 12 weeks of light production... about 6,000 - 12,000 vehicles in 2022... and that's being extremely optimistic.

I'm at about 65k. I figure if I am super lucky and they hit 5,000 trucks per week in Q1 2023, I might have to wrap my truck in green when I get it on St Patty's Day. (but I'm not sure I have the luck of the Irish).

 

[Ogre]

Jeff Bezos loves the delays. Rivian is mimicking Tesla but at a faster pace, or so it seems.

I'm sure Bezos loves the delay, but they aren't mimicking Tesla.

Tesla launched a completely unproven product into a highly skeptical marketplace with no infrastructure in place to support it. Their whole go-to-market strategy was based on the fact that they had very little capital to launch at scale.

Rivian is backed by multi-billion dollar companies. They have massive amounts of capital and they are pushing their product into a fairly proven market.

Essentially Tesla started the EV S Curve and Rivian is trying to jump onto that growth curve by throwing large amounts of capital at it.

 

[JoCast]

I’m cool, still working the finances I’m the only one currently driving in our family a delay would give my 17yr old time to qualify for full licence. But man we are looking forward to 2023 and beyond!

 

[Cyber-ely]

The Gigapress is being installed *right now*. It's likely to be ready by year end, certainly well before end of year 2022 and will probably idle for quite some time. The Giga is not the problem. The design is not the problem.

The hold up is the 4680 battery process. They had the process working at smaller scale, but when they tried to scale up production of the process, everything went sideways. This isn't really something they could have predicted until they started to scale production.

Honestly this is more concerning than late equipment or late designs because it means they might have to go back to the design board on a very fundamental component of the truck.

I don't think the 8k Gigapress has even arrived yet. I've been watching the videos and haven't seen anything. I would love for it to be there but I don't think it is. A lot of this should have been figured out a while back or maybe should have shown the cybertruck in 2020 or early 2021. The reservations were going to happen no matter what. 4680 does have me somewhat concerned but it seems it was an engineering issue so that should pass soon and the other battery manufactures can help with that.

 

[Jeegar]

My expectations were low regarding production. new design, manufacturing process, and batteries, i see multiple areas that can delay production. I am happy i am not first on the list, since the car will have some unforeseen issues in first production series. I am also happy the production is delayed. I Can buy a house before buying the truck. I think 2023 is the year of mass production. Most deliveries starting in late 2023 and early 2024.

 

[Ogre]

I don't think the 8k Gigapress has even arrived yet. I've been watching the videos and haven't seen anything. I would love for it to be there but I don't think it is. A lot of this should have been figured out a while back or maybe should have shown the cybertruck in 2020 or early 2021. The reservations were going to happen no matter what. 4680 does have me somewhat concerned but it seems it was an engineering issue so that should pass soon and the other battery manufactures can help with that.

Don't know if its the 8k Giga or not, but they just rolled in with a couple of massive crates from IDRA yesterday and the day before. They are pouring new foundations for a new Gigapress right now.

Maybe it's another 6k press? I thought they had all of the 6k presses in place.

 

[tschoenecker]

Disappointed but really want a "lifetime truck" that I am hoping the CyberTruck will be. I really need or more specially: Want, it will be higher quality and with market improvements such as 4680 batteries.....

 

[Cyber-ely]

Just wanted to point something out that a lot of others know and forget or never knew in the first place. With Tesla vertical integrating more and more of their components and processes of manufacturing they are left to "Building the Machine that makes the Machine" since what they are trying to accomplish has never been done before. In the case of the Giga Press, there was no need for an 8k ton press before the CT. IDRA is tasked to build the machine first (it's bigger than most homes). And that is just a part of what it will take to manufacture the CT.

If Tesla was building an electric truck like the Lighting or R1T which is built with traditional materials and processes then I too would be upset over the delay but the CyberTruck will blow away these other trucks, and that is exactly what I want to purchase with my money!

The Semi and Roadster are ready for production, just waiting for 4680s to scale. The Semi uses likely 5 times the batteries of what the Model Y uses. Once the backlog of Model Ys being manufactured from Austin "slows" then we will see the Semi start production. As for the Roadster, What is the point of even releasing it? During the reveal, Elon said the purpose was to show that an electric car can beat the performance of any hypercar. Plaid already does that for $100k less and you can use it as a daily driver that seats 5. The roadster is way on the back burner and will be the desert in Tesla's lineup after 4680s are fully ramped up.

I get your point about the gigapress not needing to be around before CT but in 2019 or during development of the prototype, they should have known they needed it and placed the order. They just placed the other a few months ago. Granted, I don't know if IDRA already started engineering the machine or if they start after the order is placed. Thats where I take issue on things happening later when it should have been done before hand .

 

[Hunter]

With our many out of control wildfires in California, climate disruption is scarier than ever now.

Perhaps it's too late already for any climate fix at all. Some, including me at times, say we're already domed and nothing we can do now will save us from certain extinction. ... as positive feedback swings into play and skyrockets our ambient temperatures.

I think we all must change much more than we have any idea if we hope for any of us to survive.

And simply replacing an ICE truck with electric, only to keep towing huge unnecessary loads like some here suggest, won't really solve anything climate wise I don't think.

I think it's going to take a fundamental change in who we think we are for us to save us from this thermal disruption. CT is a good idea, but already too late in the game I think.

I think we need to see ourselves as in balance with our environment, not above it and trying to manage or control it. But this is unimaginable to most.

By the time CT rolls, I might well be beyond wanting one.

Hoping for a technological fix is smoking vaporware. The real solution comes from rethinking who we are.

 

[Gordon E Peterson II]

The Gigapress is being installed *right now*. It's likely to be ready by year end, certainly well before end of year 2022 and will probably idle for quite some time. The Giga is not the problem. The design is not the problem.

The hold up is the 4680 battery process. They had the process working at smaller scale, but when they tried to scale up production of the process, everything went sideways. This isn't really something they could have predicted until they started to scale production.

Honestly this is more concerning than late equipment or late designs because it means they might have to go back to the design board on a very fundamental component of the truck.

Gigafactory Texas has three of the 6,000 ton Gigapresses... two installed and working, and the third one being installed but not yet (the last I heard) operational (and no sign yet of the third melting furnace, if they use a different furnace for each Gigapress).

And the 8,000 ton Gigapress (for the rear component of the Cybertruck) isn't installed yet (and they don't even have the foundation prepared for it in Gigafactory Texas, yet). And likewise, no signs of its furnace yet, either.... and hopefully, they'll have at least two of the 8,000 ton Gigapresses.

 

[Trucky]

Like waiting for the vaporware roadster...starting to think the Rivian might be a better bet.

I went to the rivian unveil and got a good look at the truck. It’s cool, but it’s just a normal plastic piece of shit next to the cybertruck. May as well just buy a Ford. It has a very cute flashlight that lives in the dashboard, and your snowboard can go in a super cute storage spot, but other than that it’s an electric Subaru with a bed… wait for the truck that is actually a fundamental game changer…

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