Update from Elon: Cybertruck production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023

[Yali]

This delay is highly expected because of the restrictions on Batteries, which is not enough for hot-cake model-Y. At this point there should be no reason to let Cybertruck to compete with model Y for batteries.

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[Galactus55]

Well I will hold on to my reservation. If the f-150 lightning comes out sooner then I may buy that see if I like. If not will sell it buy the Cybertruck. Really it all comes down to timing

 

[Crissa]

What happens to the price? Inflation is rising...

...and computers get cheaper.

-Crissa

 

[Vics44]

Like waiting for the vaporware roadster...starting to think the Rivian might be a better bet.

I was hoping to have a FSD CT by my 79th birthday!? Maybe? ??‍I just turned 77 8/29, plus I just bought/ordered an Oliver legacy elite II camper trailer and it will arrive by June 2022……was hoping to pull it with the CT? My understanding from my order number placed January 21, 2020, I’ll be around 450,000ish on the delivery, sooo now looks like 2024?! Maybe? I gotta make a decision before my Camper trailer arrives, however my other vehicle is a jeep GC 5.7 V8 Hemi 4x4 that will pull the Oliver Trailer, sooo Casa ra Sara!??‍

 

[Ogre]

...and computers get cheaper.

... and battery technology which is the biggest line on the expense sheet is getting cheaper.

 

[tidmutt]

This is all about 4680 supply. It's unlikely the truck as presented is viable without 4680s, the price would change dramatically if they used different cells. Tesla rolled the dice on 4680 production and it's turning out to be harder than they hoped, but I suspect they will succeed in raising yields from their 4680 pilot production line. It's already rumored to be at 80%.

Everyone pointing at F150s and Rivians, sure if you like those trucks and you want to pay substantially more for less capabilities by all means do so. Don't expect large volume production for some time though, those companies have all but said that.

Some seem to have the impression that Tesla keeps "delaying" the Cybertruck. This is not true, this is the first actual delay and first timeframe was pretty vague, intentionally. This is what Elon said:

"If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume productions to begin in 2022"

"If we get lucky"... Elon is not a great communicator, there are times when a PR team could really help. Yet, it's what we have. This was his way of saying, if 4680 production all works out, everything goes pretty much perfectly we can meat this date. Personally I thought mid-2022 was more likely.

Notice Elon did not say "we will deliver by the end of 2021" he explicitly couched the statement with some caveats.

Bottom line - Tesla are building something completely new with:

- Exoskeleton
- A custom steel alloy
- Large single piece castings
- New structural battery pack
- New battery cells using a novel dry electrode requiring new manufacturing techniques
- New software (or at least a substantially iterated version of what is in the Model Y etc.)
- New FSD hardware and.cameras
- Who knows what else

Virtually all of these things are new in mass produces vehicles.

I don't know about you but I'm willing to give any company with the balls to cram this much innovation into a single new product, a lot of leeway.

I'm not a truck guy, never owned one before but personally the Rivian and F150 look like good vehicles, but the CT is on another level so I'll wait. If you can't wait, then I guess Tesla loses a sale or you find a temporary alternative.

Last but not least... Most new cars spend half a decade in development and that's often using pieces from the parts bin, suppliers using well known components and so on. Maybe a bit faster if it's a product on an existing platform. Now add a global pandemic and supply chain issues and the expectation that the CT could be produced in such a short timeframe is a little insane, although yes, Elon didn't help with his communications.

 

[Cybertruck Hawaii]

The single motor Cybertruck will be the last trim line to be assembled in 2023. My Tesla salesman in Honolulu told me that when I placed my order in May, 2021. I’m retired and am in no hurry.

 

[tidmutt]

... and battery technology which is the biggest line on the expense sheet is getting cheaper.

Yep, specific energy has been increasing 5% per year. That means less cells needed, means lower costs on top of cheaper to produce cells.

 

[intimidator]

limited production is 195,000 by end of December 2022

No way, and hold me to it, Tesla produces 195,000 Cybertrucks in 2022.
I think anything more than 5,000 in 2022 would surprise me.

Maybe, if they don't delay again, Tesla can produce 195,000 in 2023.

So if you are sitting at 350,000 in the queue, expect 2024.

 

[John K]

No way, and hold me to it, Tesla produces 195,000 Cybertrucks in 2022.
I think anything more than 5,000 in 2022 would surprise me.

Maybe, if they don't delay again, Tesla can produce 195,000 in 2023.

So if you are sitting at 350,000 in the queue, expect 2024.

My reservation is 194,000 and change so, Tesla is making every effort humanly possible to get to 195,000

 

[intimidator]

the problem here is that Rivian is almost ready and GM and Ford will be before Tesla. people in need of a truck and still puzzled about CT's appearance will go for another brand at this point. this is no good news for us Tesla shareholders. As a future CT owner, however, I am ok with any delay that makes CT better.

None of these delays are making the CT better, they are delays because they can't execute the proposed design - including promised specs - yet. Eventually they will get there, but in the meantime the "others" have "caught up" in a manner of speaking.

However, IMO it is not one winner takes all. I never thought Tesla would own the whole truck market. Even if the Tesla CT has longer range, better charging network, greater towing, etc. People like choices. Some people will buy a Rivian. Some people will buy the Ford Lightning. Others will buy a GMC Sierra and wait until 2025 to get their CT.

I have a CT on order, a Rivian on order as well as a Ford Lightning. I would prefer the CT was in my driveway come January 2022, but I have to consider the other options. I need something sooner than 2024. The Rivian R1T max pack is promised to start shipping in January 2022. So buyers should expect theirs in the the January to April timeframe.

 

[Jelloiron]

I did it, I bought this today with the news of the delay on the CT, I have to have a truck and I was pushing it driving the M3 for almost a year as it is. I'm keeping the M3 and will trade both in when the CT finally comes in.

 

[Ogre]

Seems like some people aren't up on the news since the Cybertruck launch. On top of all the other issues Tesla was already facing getting the Cybertruck to market, a few things have happened since the launch announcement.

Firstly, a global pandemic broke out killing millions of people and has intermittently shut down every major economy in the world.

Supplies of everything has been tight. Shipments of products in nearly every major category have suffered months long delays. Nearly every durable good on the market has been delayed at some point in time during the past 18 months. The vital supply of microcontrollers and other chips has slowed to a trickle with manufacturers disabling functionality and shutting down multiple factories and huge product lines as a result.

Every major auto maker has shut down production of cars and trucks for days or even weeks at a time due to critical component shortages. Ford & GM can't produce their hugely profitable trucks and Broncos right now.

Governments have mandated limits on how many people can be in a building together, causing a massive restructuring of the modern workplace to accommodate large amounts of remote work.

We had a 3 month shortage last year of **toilet paper**. TOILET PAPER!

It's possible Tesla has some nefarious plot to rob you of your $100 Cybertruck deposit. Or perhaps some of these other issues have taken their toll on the shipping date of the truck.

 

[John K]

two years…or so

i would buy a vehicle without steering wheel and pedals when I am confident in the proven tech.

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