Crissa

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It’s called work.
Why is it the people who work the hardest, get paid the least?

How are people supposed to work, when they are hungry?

How are people supposed to work, when they're sick?

How are people supposed to work, when there aren't jobs?

How are people supposed to live, when their wages do not pay rent?

And how are we supposed to believe that you think pollution isn't real? Of course humans can change the climate. It's what we do. It's why we irrigated to grow food. Why we cut down forests. It's why we have climate controlled homes. Why we dug fossil fuels from the ground. Why pollution exists.

50% of all land is under human control via farming, ranching, exploitation. 97% has been altered to fit us.

Of course we can change the climate.

-Crissa
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LDRHAWKE

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Why is it the people who work the hardest, get paid the least?

How are people supposed to work, when they are hungry?

How are people supposed to work, when they're sick?

How are people supposed to work, when there aren't jobs?

How are people supposed to live, when their wages do not pay rent?

And how are we supposed to believe that you think pollution isn't real? Of course humans can change the climate. It's what we do. It's why we irrigated to grow food. Why we cut down forests. It's why we have climate controlled homes. Why we dug fossil fuels from the ground. Why pollution exists.

50% of all land is under human control via farming, ranching, exploitation. 97% has been altered to fit us.

Of course we can change the climate.

-Crissa
Did you know that negative thinking destroys brain cells and causes global warming. ?
 

JBee

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Considering pre orders and the fact that preorders seem to be increasing over time even with the delay, maybe peak production will creep up over 5k units per week.
If the limiting factor is the gigapresses, then two gigapresses, one for front casting, and one for rear casting, according to IDRA capacity of 45 per hour would give you around 7500 CT castings sets per week or 380,000 CTs per year.

End of last year IRDA had orders for 11 for Tesla. Another two for CT would put that number at 760,000. (Subject to ramping rates)

Then the next big limiting factor would be 4680 batteries in structural packs. From the battery day information their expected capacity by 2023 is huge. Even if they only do half that they will have enough for MY and CT at that production rate and still have Panasonic etc for more.

Then for motors and drivetrains I expect the Plaid drivetrain and motors will make their way accross the whole range, including CT. That streamlined production will be in Austin and Berlin. This has custom machinery but at least no large scale stuff like a battery line or giga press, accordingly capacity can grow organically to meet vehicle output.

Then we have semi conductor shortages. Tesla is working with Samsung and theres a new plant going in near Austin for them too. But timeline is a few years still to complete. This might be the new limiting factor...
 

Ogre

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End of last year IRDA had orders for 11 for Tesla.
The gigapress is a good indicator of peak capacity, it's what I've used in the past myself.

The number I'd heard was 1 casting per 90 seconds which is a little less, but close to your 45/ hour. If they ran 7 days a week, 24 hours a day, with zero down time, they could indeed hit ~350,000 trucks.

Tesla hasn't managed to get down to 90 seconds per casting in Fremont yet though. That might be due to tuning the machine or maybe they are waiting on other processes. Regardless, I find it unlikely we'll see anywhere near 350k trucks a year for at least a couple years with just 2 Gigapresses. If they fired up 4 of them, then we'd be cooking with fire.
 

Gordon E Peterson II

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The gigapress is a good indicator of peak capacity, it's what I've used in the past myself.

The number I'd heard was 1 casting per 90 seconds which is a little less, but close to your 45/ hour. If they ran 7 days a week, 24 hours a day, with zero down time, they could indeed hit ~350,000 trucks.

Tesla hasn't managed to get down to 90 seconds per casting in Fremont yet though. That might be due to tuning the machine or maybe they are waiting on other processes. Regardless, I find it unlikely we'll see anywhere near 350k trucks a year for at least a couple years with just 2 Gigapresses. If they fired up 4 of them, then we'd be cooking with fire.
At Austin they already have two Gigapresses fully operational. A third is being installed now, and two more foundations are being prepared. It's not yet sure whether these new foundations will be for the 6k ton or 8k ton Gigapresses (but my guess is that all five of these will be the 6k ton presses, and the 8k ton presses will be in the gallery further east). The bigger ones are only needed for the CT rear, the smaller ones can be used for MY and the front of CT (and probably the battery pack??) I would guess there will be at least 3 of the 8k presses, and maybe 4-5 of them.
 


HaulingAss

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I wonder why Tesla has hundreds of cast sections just sitting around...

-Crissa
Hopefully they are stockpiling Model Y castings so they can switch to Cybertruck front castings sooner.

?

OK, I admit it, I'm going a little stir crazy! All I have is my 1:10 R/C Cybertruck to hold me over. :cry:
 

Ogre

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the smaller ones can be used for MY and the front of CT
For some reason I thought they were doing big Gigapress for front and rear of CT.

If they can do the front with the "smaller" Gigapress that kind of changes the math of the whole thing.

From what I've heard there are 9 pads for gigapresses. That's roughly capacity for a million vehicles a year. 1.5 million if they run 24/ 7 at peak capacity. I don't expect we'll see that for some time but it means 500k Model Ys and 500k Cybertrucks could be coming out of that factory in 3-4 years.

Very interesting times to be in.
 

No-mo-ice

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I recommend not buying a new ICE truck at this point in time unless you are OK taking a real bath on the resale value in a couple of years. Projections are for new ICE vehicles to loose value very rapidly during this unprecedented disruption.

Did you know the popularity of the Model T made the price of horses collapse? All of a sudden no one wanted the old technology anymore and horses became so cheap it actually become socially acceptable in America to eat them, something that previously was legal, but taboo. After the glut of horses was consumed, the original taboo on horse meat was re-established.

ICE vehicles will be similar, there will be a glut of them and no one will want to pay very much for them. It's going to happen faster than the mainstream media realizes.
I shall take that advice
 

SoCalSteve

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I'm late to the reply train, but the truck will come when it's going to come. Delays were expected from the beginning. if mine comes early in 2023, then maybe the tax credits will offset my expected "California Exit Tax."

I assume a decent number of people are hoping to replace a vehicle when they pick up their cybertruck. If that vehicle dies between now and then, I'd expect there to be one more CT cancelation. In the long run, I don't think it'll hurt tesla.
 


OP
OP

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The autoworkers in the US make 8-10 times as much as their Mexican counterparts. Tesla autoworkers have more valuable compensation packages than union autoworkers in the US. So, US wages did not "force" companies like Ford to build the Mach-e in Mexico, incompetence did. Ford and GM have become so incompetent, so inefficient, that they felt they needed to look south of the border to boost profits.

Tesla can treat their employees well because they respect the value of their workers by keeping overhead to a minimum. They don't devalue their employees time by having layer upon layer of management overhead. This means they don't have to go looking for cheap labor across the border.
No one forces anyone to go to work for Ford or GM. It is a choice they make.
They could choose to leave and move to Texas....I hear there is a new factory down there that is looking for workers. In fact, there are a couple of new factories / companies in Texas looking for workers.

Of course, they are not unionized, so they will have to show up to work and perform their job well. And learn what employee stock compensation plans can do for them.

Hmmm, although GM & Ford might have to send more production to Mexico if they don't have enough US workers....
 

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The delay is disappointing but not surprising. What would really be a kick to the privates is to hang around for 3+ years only to have the price go up by $20k, making it no longer affordable.
 

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The fact that politicians have been able convince far to many gullible people
that man is able to control World climate, if you simply give them money and power; reminds me of the story about the ego of a flea on his back floating down river on a leaf, with an erection screaming “raise the railroad bridge, raise the bridge”.

We forget that political global warming con all started with Obama, Gore, and Strong who were “instrumental in developing and launching the privately-owned Chicago Climate Exchange, which called itself “North America’s only cap and trade system for all six greenhouse gases, with global affiliates and projects.

And that’s only the beginning of this tawdry tale of the World class con man Maurice Strong and friends attempting to con the World out of $170 trillion in taxes annually. Which was defeated by Congress.

Forbes magazine went through the federal budget and estimated about $150 billion in spending in research grants to prove global warming during President Obama’s first term alone. It has grown to $trillions and has become a self serving industry.

What did PT Barnum say about a sucker born every minute.

That is not to say the World Climate is not changing. It is always changing. That is not to say CO2 has not increased, it has. Weather is not Climate. The World is not coming to an end.….for awhile.
Is the earth flat too?
I think the $10mil per minute of subsidies to the fossil fuel industry is probably a more prescient funding concern than the funding of peer reviewed research.

Science is a procedure to be less wrong about the assumptions of physical world.

You are correct we can’t control the climate, that is the problem, and for some reason we are still running the stupidest experiment in the history of humankind; how much carbon can we pump into our atmosphere before the planet is unliveable.

Scanning google is not research, it’s literature review.
A hypothesis and a theory are very different things.
Scientific illiteracy is fueling all of the global issues of the world. Climate, health, political corruption.
 

LDRHAWKE

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Is the earth flat too?
I think the $10mil per minute of subsidies to the fossil fuel industry is probably a more prescient funding concern than the funding of peer reviewed research.

Science is a procedure to be less wrong about the assumptions of physical world.

You are correct we can’t control the climate, that is the problem, and for some reason we are still running the stupidest experiment in the history of humankind; how much carbon can we pump into our atmosphere before the planet is unliveable.

Scanning google is not research, it’s literature review.
A hypothesis and a theory are very different things.
Scientific illiteracy is fueling all of the global issues of the world. Climate, health, political corruption.
The government is in reality not subsidizing anything. They are not giving the oil industry anything. They simply tax and take. They consider it subsidizing when they don’t take and tax more. They made the onshore royalty rate 18.75 percent. The Mineral Act of 1920 established a royalty of 12.5 percent to be paid to the federal government by energy companies from the sale of oil, gas, or coal extracted from federal public lands. Because they don’t change the royalty in the Mineral Leasing Act of 1920 to 18.75% they consider this a subsidy. Only politicians and government think this way. The money you earn is theirs and they will determine how much they allow you to keep.

This is like the government saying we played with the numbers so you are personally only in the 35% tax bracket, you would have otherwise been in the 50% bracket, so we are subsidizing you 15%.

The oil industries tax write off for research and capital depreciation isn’t significantly different that use in most industries and was established to encourage investment.

I will agree with your last statement….Scientific illiteracy is fueling all of the global issues of the world. Climate, health, political corruption.
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