Where will Tesla get 4680 batteries for the CyberTruck in 2024?

[intimidator]

Here's a couple facts from watching Joe fly his drones over GigaTexas since the beginning:

9. Thus, there is already SOME capacity to build Cybertrucks at GigaTexas using the obviously limited number of 4680 cells they are producing somewhere. We just don't know how much... But, we can guess it is not enough to make 5,000 Model Ys per week and thus, not enough to make probably 2,500 Cybertrucks per week assuming a sort of double-stacked Model Y battery module to get the battery up to 156.2 KwH given current Model Y battery pack size of 178.1.

Great breakdown.

The one big unknown is the energy density of the 4680s that Tesla is making right now.
Yes, they are making some 4680s. Yes they are putting them in some Model Ys.
But we don't know if they have wrestled that alligator known as energy density/specs to the point the 4680s are an improvment over the 2170s.
You certainly don't want to have to put 4680s into the CyberTruck if you have to put MORE in (by weight) than 2170s to get the same amount of range.

I guess we wait now until Sept/Oct to see what progress they have made with the 4680s. Hope they can approach what they promised on Battery Day. Or, at least by next Spring.

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[HaulingAss]

Although, those outside suppliers maybe struggling to ramp too. See below:

Panasonic was thought to be inline to produce a portion of the early CyberTruck 4680s, but very recently they announced they are delaying 4680 battery production...."Panasonic now plans to start 4680 cell production between April 2024 and September 2024 (per Reuters)

Who thought Panasonic was going to supply Cybertruck batteries? No one that I would trust.

Plus, it makes no sense, or else Tesla would have had to change the announced Cybertruck ramp schedule when Panasonic announced the delay in their production of 4680's.

 

[intimidator]

Who thought Panasonic was going to supply Cybertruck batteries? No one that I would trust.

Plus, it makes no sense, or else Tesla would have had to change the announced Cybertruck ramp schedule when Panasonic announced the delay in their production of 4680's.

Several sources have said Panasonic would provide 4680s to Tesla.
Including Reuters (which is not a YouTube yahoo). Albeit because of the Panasonic delay, initial production of CyberTrucks will have to be 4680s that either come from Tesla, or maybe CATL.

I am sure you know Panasonic already provides a lot of batteries to Tesla, including their joint factory with Tesla in Nevada.

Plus, they have stated they will build more factories in the US and INCREASE the # of batteries they provide to Tesla.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/El...ncrease-EV-battery-production-for-Tesla-by-10
" Panasonic, Tesla’s main battery manufacturer and a key investor in the company’s earliest days, says it intends to build a massive $4 billion battery plant in Kansas to supply packs for the auto industry’s fast-moving shift to electric cars and trucks."

Assuming they build the CyberTruck for 5-10 years, they will need a lot of batteries.

 

[Alan]

The standard range model y’s out of Texas have the 4680’s

 

[charliemagpie]

CATL is claiming density of 400+

TSLA 4680 mid 200?

Hands up if you really think Tesla is going to fail to beat anyone.

 

[HaulingAss]

Several sources have said Panasonic would provide 4680s to Tesla.
Including Reuters (which is not a YouTube yahoo). Albeit because of the Panasonic delay, initial production of CyberTrucks will have to be 4680s that either come from Tesla, or maybe CATL.

I am sure you know Panasonic already provides a lot of batteries to Tesla, including their joint factory with Tesla in Nevada.

Plus, they have stated they will build more factories in the US and INCREASE the # of batteries they provide to Tesla.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/El...ncrease-EV-battery-production-for-Tesla-by-10
" Panasonic, Tesla’s main battery manufacturer and a key investor in the company’s earliest days, says it intends to build a massive $4 billion battery plant in Kansas to supply packs for the auto industry’s fast-moving shift to electric cars and trucks."

Assuming they build the CyberTruck for 5-10 years, they will need a lot of batteries.

Do you have a link to the Reuters article that said Panasonic would be supplying Cybertruck batteries?

Because I don't believe they said that.

 

[intimidator]

Do you have a link to the Reuters article that said Panasonic would be supplying Cybertruck batteries?

Because I don't believe they said that.

Quick google search and it pops up.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/...tesla-battery-improve-performance-2023-05-10/

Panasonic delays production of new Tesla battery to improve performance
By Hyunjoo Jin
and Kiyoshi Takenaka
May 10, 20232:59 PM EDT

SAN FRANCISCO/TOKYO, May 10 (Reuters) - Panasonic said on Wednesday that it will delay the commercial production of its 4680 battery cells championed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk and begin operations during the April to September period in 2024, later than previously scheduled, as the company aims to improve their performance.

Tesla's Japanese supplier, Panasonic, previously planned to start volume production for Tesla between April 2023 to March 2024.

 

[HaulingAss]

Quick google search and it pops up.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/...tesla-battery-improve-performance-2023-05-10/

Panasonic delays production of new Tesla battery to improve performance
By Hyunjoo Jin
and Kiyoshi Takenaka
May 10, 20232:59 PM EDT

SAN FRANCISCO/TOKYO, May 10 (Reuters) - Panasonic said on Wednesday that it will delay the commercial production of its 4680 battery cells championed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk and begin operations during the April to September period in 2024, later than previously scheduled, as the company aims to improve their performance.

Tesla's Japanese supplier, Panasonic, previously planned to start volume production for Tesla between April 2023 to March 2024.

You will note that Panasonic is not quoted as saying they would make 4680's for Tesla. In fact, Reuters makes that claim without even citing "according to people familiar with the matter".

Any thinking person would wonder why they are making this claim without any attribution whatsoever. It's unusual, even for Reuters. Tesla didn't say that, Panasonic didn't say that, and they are not even claiming unnamed sources said that.

 

[intimidator]

CATL is claiming density of 400+

TSLA 4680 mid 200?

Hands up if you really think Tesla is going to fail to beat anyone.

CATL has been making batteries for a long time. They are the "world leader". Don't forget China makes way more batteries than any country in the world.

Tesla does not have the experience making batteries equal to CATL. Tesla is getting better and better at it though.

CATL’s lead in the EV battery market grew in 2022

Based off data trends from the research firms compiled data, it predicts battery consumption will jump to 749 GWh in 2023. Based on battery usage in 2022, CATL lead by more than double its second place competitor with 191.6 GWh. As a result, its percentage of the EV battery market grew to 37%.Feb 8, 2023. LG was 2nd and Panasonic was 3rd.

 

[intimidator]

You will note that Panasonic is not quoted as saying they would make 4680's for Tesla. In fact, Reuters makes that claim without even citing "according to people familiar with the matter".

Any thinking person would wonder why they are making this claim without any attribution whatsoever. It's unusual, even for Reuters. Tesla didn't say that, Panasonic didn't say that, and they are not even claiming unnamed sources said that.

Panasonic delays production of new Tesla battery to improve performance
Panasonic is running a pilot 4680 production line at its Wakayama factory in Japan.

 

[intimidator]

You will note that Panasonic is not quoted as saying they would make 4680's for Tesla. In fact, Reuters makes that claim without even citing "according to people familiar with the matter".

Any thinking person would wonder why they are making this claim without any attribution whatsoever. It's unusual, even for Reuters. Tesla didn't say that, Panasonic didn't say that, and they are not even claiming unnamed sources said that.

Ask AI.Bard (similar to ChatGPT):
Is panasonic building 4680 batteries for Tesla?

Answer:
Yes, Panasonic is building 4680 batteries for Tesla. In October 2021, Panasonic unveiled its own 4680 cell developed with Tesla. Then, Panasonic greenlit a $700 million investment to produce 4680 cells in Japan, with plans to bring the cell to volume production at other locations.

However, Panasonic has delayed volume production of the 4680 battery cell in order to introduce “performance improvement measures.” The company is aiming to improve the energy density of the cells and reduce the cost of production.

Panasonic is not the only company that is building 4680 batteries for Tesla. Tesla is also working with LG Energy Solution and CATL to develop and produce the 4680 cells.

 

[ED_SFO]

I don't think they will be 4680 cell constrained by the time Cybertruck hits 5k/ week by end of next year. Pricing will definitely reflect demand, and by early 2025 there will be multiple 4680 factories online in the US. I do believe pricing will be the deciding factor if the CT flops.

I'm curious if all other operations makes Tesla money, would Elon sell CT at cost to drive demand. Kinda like Costco selling their rotisserie chicken for $5. You make money on everything else, but you have this cool halo product and helps with your ultimate mission.

 

[charliemagpie]

CATL has been making batteries for a long time. They are the "world leader". Don't forget China makes way more batteries than any country in the world.

Tesla does not have the experience making batteries equal to CATL. Tesla is getting better and better at it though.

CATL’s lead in the EV battery market grew in 2022

Based off data trends from the research firms compiled data, it predicts battery consumption will jump to 749 GWh in 2023. Based on battery usage in 2022, CATL lead by more than double its second place competitor with 191.6 GWh. As a result, its percentage of the EV battery market grew to 37%.Feb 8, 2023. LG was 2nd and Panasonic was 3rd.

Yes agree, I bought shares in CATL in 2021. Sorry, I was meaning to say, I am confident the 4680 on performance will effectively compete with any other battery out there. In essence, the battery will be ready.

I wouldn't bet against Elon. lol

 

[Crissa]

With very low initial production capacity, I can’t imagine a pathway to a sub $80,000 Cybertruck...

Luckily, Tesla isn't limited by your (or my) imagination. We do know that their current cars are only running a couple percentage on average above their pre-pandemic price. So why would the truck have a 14% increase over the target?

2. It's logical to presume those are the 2170 and 4680 versions of the Model Y. The 4680 version does not have a floor in the bodies we've seen set outside for scrap.
3. While not definite proof of 4680 production

The standard range model y’s out of Texas have the 4680’s

Yeah, we know the range of the 4680 version of the Austin Model Y, and it's available to order now. So it must be in regular production finally.

CATL has been making batteries for a long time.

CATL was founded in 2011. They're the youngest company in this bunch.

-Crissa

 

[Trbizwiz]

Luckily, Tesla isn't limited by your (or my) imagination. We do know that their current cars are only running a couple percentage on average above their pre-pandemic price. So why would the truck have a 14% increase over the target?



Yeah, we know the range of the 4680 version of the Austin Model Y, and it's available to order now. So it must be in regular production finally.


CATL was founded in 2011. They're the youngest company in this bunch.

-Crissa

I was thinking, but did not state, I can not imagine a pathway to a sub $80,000 Cybertruck at launch. I very much believe they have the ability to get to the pricing mentioned at reveal, perhaps with an inflation adjustment. But it will come after production ramp.
Elon has stated the importance of price, in the discussion of supply versus demand. Initially Cybertruck will be expensive to build, because of low numbers. The demand is very high, even if there were 50% attrition. I also suspect for every person that jumps off the Cybertruck train, one or two will jump on, as it becomes a reality. So there is no relief in demand for the foreseeable future. The best way to keep the masses patient is to price it so they have to. Imagine the complaining if the first Cybertrucks were $40,000, or even $50,000. The wait list would triple over night.
I believe we will get to $50k, when production can match demand. There is no reason for it, before then.
We have seen evidence of this with Model Y & 3. Sometimes there was a cheap version, then demand was too high so they dropped the cheap version and raised pricing for other versions. Then the dropped long range 3 for a while, and only offered performance and standard range. They use model availability, and price, to adjust for production, and demand, on a constantly evolving scale.

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