Where will Tesla get 4680 batteries for the CyberTruck in 2024?

[HaulingAss]

Panasonic delays production of new Tesla battery to improve performance
Panasonic is running a pilot 4680 production line at its Wakayama factory in Japan.

The 4680 cell was standardized by Tesla. That means it's 100% percent correct to call it a "Tesla battery" and there is little doubt that some anti-Tesla interests want to imply this is bad for the Cybertruck ramp (because the Cybertruck scares them shitless) . But it doesn't mean Tesla was depending upon Panasonic 4680 for Cybertruck ramp. That's where a few of you have let the mainstream media mislead you into a rabbit hole you shouldn't have let yourselves go down.

When Tesla announced early Cybertruck production starting the end of Summer of this year, they were not counting on Panasonic 4680 to make it happen, they were going to ramp with Tesla produced 4680's because Tesla has no control over when Panasonic cells actually make it to market and Panasonic has a history of delays and under-performance when it comes to providing the volume of batteries Tesla wants. This very fact, Panasonic's reluctance to ramp battery production higher, was an important catalyst in Tesla's decision to add battery manufacturing to the rather long list of things they make themselves.

The Panasonic made 4680's were always seen as beneficial down the road, for Semi production ramp and for generally accelerating the mission, the more batteries the merrier. Tesla did not design the Cybertruck production ramp around being able to get early 4680's from Panasonic.

And anyone quoting an AI chat bot as a serious source of information is showing a disregard for proper analysis.

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[cvalue13]

And anyone quoting an AI chat bot as a serious source of information is showing a disregard for proper analysis.

why?

it’s accessing the entirety of the internet, and summarizing with citations

Dismissing it as any less useful than, eg, using google (which feeds you add-fueled content) is as sensible a statement as “anyone dismissing the proper use of AI large language algorithms as a useful component of ‘proper analysis’ is an uninformed Luddite boomer”

what is “a serious source of of information”? Hardback encyclopedia?

That's where a few of you have let the mainstream media mislead you into a rabbit hole you shouldn't have let yourselves go down.

Pulling the “MSM” card at every turn of convenience is such a tired, lazy, trope.

What if … and just humor me here… people deployed critical thinking while considering any sources?

In the very next thread you’ll be citing “MSM”
If it’s supporting a conclusion you buy. Or is it RT for you?

It’s not even clear what you’re on about.

If you have a single ‘serious source of information’ that describes the exact sourcing and nature of batteries to be in the CT at release, please go ahead and cite it.

Just make sure you don’t find it using Google, and isn’t touched by the MSM

 

[CyberGus]

If an unnamed battery supplier arrived on scene with a truckload of 4680's and shouted "anybody wanna buy some batteries?" then who else would answer besides Tesla?

Of course, the 4680 could be a standard cell for various purposes given the right engineering, but I think Tesla will be able to consume every 4680 built for the foreseeable future.

 

[HaulingAss]

If an unnamed battery supplier arrived on scene with a truckload of 4680's and shouted "anybody wanna buy some batteries?" then who else would answer besides Tesla?

Of course, the 4680 could be a standard cell for various purposes given the right engineering, but I think Tesla will be able to consume every 4680 built for the foreseeable future.

Tesla Semi is going to need a LOT of 4680's because demand for it will be unlimited, from a practical perspective, for years to come. The cost per mile benefit is too big for competitive transport companies to ignore.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Tesla Semi is going to need a LOT of 4680's because demand for it will be unlimited, from a practical perspective, for years to come. The cost per mile benefit is too big for competitive transport companies to ignore.

Tesla isn't using 4680s in the Semi according to Elon. He didn't say which, but the assumption is 2170s.

Also, who knows how long until the 4680s will be ready, but it's good to see that Tesla can shift to other batteries like they did with the Semi.

Edit: I think they will absolutely use the 4680s in the Semi once they can get the energy density figured out.

 

[HaulingAss]

Tesla isn't using 4680s in the Semi according to Elon. He didn't say which, but the assumption is 2170s.

Also, who knows how long until the 4680s will be ready, but it's good to see that Tesla can shift to other batteries like they did with the Semi.

Edit: I think they will absolutely use the 4680s in the Semi once they can get the energy density figured out.

Yes, I'm talking when the semi gets to high volume production it will almost certainly use 4680's exclusively.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Yes, I'm talking when the semi gets to high volume production it will almost certainly use 4680's exclusively.

It depends on when they decide to start producing Semis vs. when the 4680 is ready. I don't think a timeline on either has been publicly announced.

 

[BeastSlayer]

China, as usual.

Why do you think Elon is out there right now?

 

[NJturtlePower]

Why do you think Elon is out there right now?

Good Chinese food and maybe makin some Asian/Musk hybrid babies.....

Got to spread them suckers around the world.

 

[TyPope]

why?

it’s accessing the entirety of the internet, and summarizing with citations

Dismissing it as any less useful than, eg, using google (which feeds you add-fueled content) is as sensible a statement as “anyone dismissing the proper use of AI large language algorithms as a useful component of ‘proper analysis’ is an uninformed Luddite boomer”

what is “a serious source of of information”? Hardback encyclopedia?




Pulling the “MSM” card at every turn of convenience is such a tired, lazy, trope.

What if … and just humor me here… people deployed critical thinking while considering any sources?

In the very next thread you’ll be citing “MSM”
If it’s supporting a conclusion you buy. Or is it RT for you?

It’s not even clear what you’re on about.

If you have a single ‘serious source of information’ that describes the exact sourcing and nature of batteries to be in the CT at release, please go ahead and cite it.

Just make sure you don’t find it using Google, and isn’t touched by the MSM

As my published co-worker would tell you, just because ChatGPT quotes a source, doesn't make it reliable. In fact, when my co-worker found his publication was quoted, he traced it to a ChatGPT article that ALSO quoted a Fred Kaplan book that does not exist. The quote looked good even if it were pretend.

Just a little anecdote. While it is a literal comment on your post, it isn't about the content of your post directly. Just adding some conversation there.

 

[CyberGus]

As my published co-worker would tell you, just because ChatGPT quotes a source, doesn't make it reliable. In fact, when my co-worker found his publication was quoted, he traced it to a ChatGPT article that ALSO quoted a Fred Kaplan book that does not exist. The quote looked good even if it were pretend.

Just a little anecdote. While it is a literal comment on your post, it isn't about the content of your post directly. Just adding some conversation there.

A US attorney faces punishment for citing fake cases ChatGPT fed him
The lawyer now regrets trusting the chatbot which misled him


By Faustine Ngila Monday 7:00AM


A US attorney is now “greatly regretting” his decision to trust OpenAI’s ChatGPT in a litigation process. Steven Schwartz will be charged in a New York court for using fake citations cooked up by the AI tool in legal research for a case he was handling.

In a sworn affidavit, Schwartz admitted to using ChatGPT to research for the case, representing his client Roberto Mata, to sue Colombian airline Avianca for injuries sustained onboard one of its planes in 2019.

Despite ChatGPT’s widely known warnings that it can sometimes produce incorrect information, Schwartz defended himself saying he was “unaware that its content could be false.”
Presiding judge Kevin Castel expressed his doubts over the authenticity of the cases the attorney presented. “Six of the submitted cases appear to be bogus judicial decisions with bogus quotes and bogus internal citations,” Castel said.

The cases ChatGPT presented the lawyer in his research were Varghese v. China South Airlines, Martinez v. Delta Airlines, Shaboon v. EgyptAir, Petersen v. Iran Air, Miller v. United Airlines, and Estate of Durden v. KLM Royal Dutch Airlines.

These cases did not exist, Castel said in an order demanding an explanation for their citation by Mata’s legal team. They were found to be made up and had fake judicial wording. Even the quotes and internal citations were just make-believe.

Though Schwartz has vowed to never use AI in future to “supplement” his legal research “without absolute verification of its authenticity,” he now faces sanctions. A hearing on the matter is now scheduled for June 8.

https://qz.com/a-us-attorney-in-trouble-over-fake-chatgpt-citations-1850484409

 

[cvalue13]

As my published co-worker would tell you, just because ChatGPT quotes a source, doesn't make it reliable. In fact, when my co-worker found his publication was quoted, he traced it to a ChatGPT article that ALSO quoted a Fred Kaplan book that does not exist. The quote looked good even if it were pretend.

Just a little anecdote. While it is a literal comment on your post, it isn't about the content of your post directly. Just adding some conversation there.

yes, critical reading and an understanding of an information source continue to be skills.

a few distinctions with your anecdote:

- ChatGPT today is different from ChatGPT even a week ago - like an encyclopedia of ten years ago is different from one printed today

- Bard is different from ChatGPT, like two encyclopedias are different

- whether ChatGPT or Bard, it’s key to how to prompt to avoid hallucinations or the platform utilizing the wrong types of information - like knowing the Dewey decimal system and how to get to the right section of the library

Same parallels apply to using search engines like Google

 

[TyPope]

yes, critical reading and an understanding of an information source continue to be skills.

a few distinctions with your anecdote:

- ChatGPT today is different from ChatGPT even a week ago - like an encyclopedia of ten years ago is different from one printed today

- Bard is different from ChatGPT, like two encyclopedias are different

- whether ChatGPT or Bard, it’s key to how to prompt to avoid hallucinations or the platform utilizing the wrong types of information - like knowing the Dewey decimal system and how to get to the right section of the library

Same parallels apply to using search engines like Google

Yes. Unfortunately, AI capabilities often outstrip the layperson's ability to discern misinformation readily. We'll all have to remain vigilant and perhaps be a little understanding when someone makes a referential mistake.

 

[intimidator]

I was thinking, but did not state, I can not imagine a pathway to a sub $80,000 Cybertruck at launch. I very much believe they have the ability to get to the pricing mentioned at reveal, perhaps with an inflation adjustment. But it will come after production ramp.
Elon has stated the importance of price, in the discussion of supply versus demand. Initially Cybertruck will be expensive to build, because of low numbers. The demand is very high, even if there were 50% attrition. I also suspect for every person that jumps off the Cybertruck train, one or two will jump on, as it becomes a reality. So there is no relief in demand for the foreseeable future. The best way to keep the masses patient is to price it so they have to. Imagine the complaining if the first Cybertrucks were $40,000, or even $50,000. The wait list would triple over night.
I believe we will get to $50k, when production can match demand. There is no reason for it, before then.
We have seen evidence of this with Model Y & 3. Sometimes there was a cheap version, then demand was too high so they dropped the cheap version and raised pricing for other versions. Then the dropped long range 3 for a while, and only offered performance and standard range. They use model availability, and price, to adjust for production, and demand, on a constantly evolving scale.

You have to realize there are some people that still live in their mother's basement, and are still dreaming of a $49,000 CyberTruck.

The "First Edition", or whatever Elon will call it, is bound to be pricey. Elon is a firm believer in Supply & Demand. The supply with be low, the demand huge, there is no reason Tesla will price the CT at launch to satisfy those living in basements.

Maybe the 2024 versions will be the SpaceX Edition, with Elon's signature on the dash. $89,000! Complete your order now! (I would not be shocked if it was even more than that...)

 

[SentinelOne]

You have to realize there are some people that still live in their mother's basement, and are still dreaming of a $49,000 CyberTruck.

The "First Edition", or whatever Elon will call it, is bound to be pricey. Elon is a firm believer in Supply & Demand. The supply with be low, the demand huge, there is no reason Tesla will price the CT at launch to satisfy those living in basements.

Maybe the 2024 versions will be the SpaceX Edition, with Elon's signature on the dash. $89,000! Complete your order now! (I would not be shocked if it was even more than that...)

sing me up for the spaces edition- basement owner, not dweller (although I have one of those)!

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