To believe or not believe...

[TyPope]

All of what you say is true except one thing; new 6K machines still take a couple months to get operational and they have done at GA now 4 times.

I am sure that we all agree with your last statement.

The 4th press seemed to take less than a month to get up and running once they started assembling it.

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[Crissa]

Remember, there are other constraints, and they had way more castings sitting around than they could use, so of course they wouldn't bring all the machines up quickly.

I agree that it seems like the steps are much quicker than before, but I don't know. Crews are definitely more skilled than they were.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

I guess this is one way to think about it :

If 100 million$ piece of construction is up and ready, it is not going to sit around and dilly dally for months as many here are contemplating. lol

 

[Ogre]

6 months ago (June) we got updated news of the 9T press and started debating when the first CT would be delivered to a customer. With 2022 realistically out the window and no 9T press assembled in TX yet, and still no word on if a SS bending machine is in fact in place, what are everyone's thoughts on a reservation holder being delivered a CT before 1 Oct 2023?

Here's mine.
-9T press assembly takes ~30 days and we don't know if it's even at GigaTX yet. But I'll be optimistic and say assembly complete NLT 10 Feb 23'.
-First CT casting seen NLT 30 Feb 23'
-At some point we learn how the SS gets bent and more about assembly
-First GigaTX produced CT seen (not for sale) NLT 30 Aug 23'
-That being the case I'm now taking the over on a 1 Oct delivery to a reservation holder.

Remember, a lot of us (myself included) per the comments in this thread thought the 9T press was going to be assembled at GigaTX by late fall of 22' in prep for summer 23' deliveries (as @charliemagpie said; 6-8 months after assembly). We are into Dec and there's not a known assembled press yet. I don't think summer 23' deliveries are on the table anymore.

The foundation is poured and fair chance the GP is in Texas now, or at least parts of it.

I would not be too surprised if the truck doesn’t ship to customers until Oct. I think it’s still entirely possible we’ll see customer deliveries by June.

 

[SpaceYooper]

I would not be too surprised if the truck doesn’t ship to customers until Oct. I think it’s still entirely possible we’ll see customer deliveries by June.

Sooo you're taking the over?

I'm trying to figure out which one of your statements holds more weight; not too surprised; or entirely possible.

There's no money being wagered here. Pick a side for the fun of it.

 

[charliemagpie]

I may be wrong, but I think what I said at the time. it would be 6-8 months after arrival(at the building). Not assembly.

Of course, there are assumptions that the foundations etc are ready and installation begins proper when it arrives.

 

[Ogre]

Sooo you're taking the over?

I'm trying to figure out which one of your statements holds more weight; not too surprised; or entirely possible.

There's no money being wagered here. Pick a side for the fun of it.

Sometime between March and December.

It’s like a bell curve with August being the highest probability for start of customer deliveries.

 

[jerhenderson]

The foundation is poured and fair chance the GP is in Texas now, or at least parts of it.

I would not be too surprised if the truck doesn’t ship to customers until Oct. I think it’s still entirely possible we’ll see customer deliveries by June.

June is mid 2023..... like Elon said.

 

[Ogre]

June is mid 2023..... like Elon said.

I’d have to review, but I thought they said production starts in mid 2023… I was talking customer deliveries. Deliveries tail production start by a bit for obvious reasons.

 

[charliemagpie]

If only things were that easy Down Under

Or this I think is the best of only three Silverado's 3500 currently on sale in AU

 

[Bill906]

If only things were that easy Down Under

Or this I think is the best of only three Silverado's 3500 currently on sale in AU

I thought your pics were ads.

 

[Crissa]

^-^

-Crissa

 

[Crissa]

The last post on a page has an ad in it.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

OOPS

Nothing to see here.

Considering the progress we’ve seen in the past few weeks: Gigapress installation under way; 4680 ramp well under way; 66 robots arriving in Texas. All the parts are in place. They have 12 months to build and troubleshoot the assembly line as of right now.

I wonder if people are still as cynical was they were back in May. If you voted no, would you change your vote at this point?

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