To believe or not believe...

[charliemagpie]

Musk said engineering is complete

If the press gets installed by October, and if 4680's are available.. Are there any reasons why the first sales won't be within say 4 months ?

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[ajdelange]

Parts for the charging ports.

 

[ajdelange]

if 4680's are available.. Are there any reasons why the first sales won't be within say 4 months ?

Look at Rivian's experience. They were running test production around as mules and then as the actual production trucks in the hands of employees for over a year before any were delivered to customers. It takes time to work out kinks in the vehicle and in the manufacturing process. Look at how extensive the Rivian "punch list" is even so.

 

[Dusty]

After the press is put back together... establish assembly run, tune assembly run , crash testing, final component durability trials, homologation (baja!)... My bet I'd say 8-9 months after the first test castings employees will have first stab at ownership, 45 days after that it opens up to Texas sales like the Y. That's when it will be officially considered to be "delivering"

Then were off to the races 30-45 days after that.

 

[SpaceYooper]

Musk said engineering is complete

If the press gets installed by October, and if 4680's are available.. Are there any reasons why the first sales won't be within say 4 months ?

Off the top of my head; Assembly line production issues, Beta testing, Crash testing, EPA testing, body panel bending processes...@dusty beat me too it while I was typing.

 

[charliemagpie]

Ok.. A consensus.

6-8 months after the first cast.

Depending on how quickly the press could be put together, we are looking between March and Jun delivery.

To account for Rivians year of Testing, Elon said Engineering is complete, and we have seen the CT getting worked on for ages now. I'd say that stage is happening now.

 

[TyPope]

Casts are aluminium not stainless steel. The stainless body panels will be folded.

I agree. It was Elon who, when asked about the 9,000 ton press, said "It's for the Cybertruck body". not the Cybertruck cast rear or front or even Cybertruck casting. He specified "Cybertruck body" which was odd to me.

 

[Crissa]

I agree. It was Elon who, when asked about the 9,000 ton press, said "It's for the Cybertruck body". not the Cybertruck cast rear or front or even Cybertruck casting. He specified "Cybertruck body" which was odd to me.

Because the cast rear is part of the body?

-Crissa

 

[SpaceYooper]

6 months ago (June) we got updated news of the 9T press and started debating when the first CT would be delivered to a customer. With 2022 realistically out the window and no 9T press assembled in TX yet, and still no word on if a SS bending machine is in fact in place, what are everyone's thoughts on a reservation holder being delivered a CT before 1 Oct 2023?

Here's mine.
-9T press assembly takes ~30 days and we don't know if it's even at GigaTX yet. But I'll be optimistic and say assembly complete NLT 10 Feb 23'.
-First CT casting seen NLT 30 Feb 23'
-At some point we learn how the SS gets bent and more about assembly
-First GigaTX produced CT seen (not for sale) NLT 30 Aug 23'
-That being the case I'm now taking the over on a 1 Oct delivery to a reservation holder.

Remember, a lot of us (myself included) per the comments in this thread thought the 9T press was going to be assembled at GigaTX by late fall of 22' in prep for summer 23' deliveries (as @charliemagpie said; 6-8 months after assembly). We are into Dec and there's not a known assembled press yet. I don't think summer 23' deliveries are on the table anymore.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Historically it has taken 2 months to receive, assemble, and test a gigapress, so that part of yourvtimeline is wrong. That said, the rest of the line could bectested and ready to go sans 9K ton presses. If Tesla still thinks summer 2023 so do I. I want to believe.

 

[SpaceYooper]

Historically it has taken 2 months to receive, assemble, and test a gigapress

I was only talking assemble and like I said...I was trying to be optimistic on that point.

If Tesla still thinks summer 2023 so do I. I want to believe.

I want to also...I just can't get there right now.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I was only talking assemble and like I said...I was trying to be optimistic on that point.



I want to also...I just can't get there right now.

It is all very frustrating ;-(

 

[TyPope]

When Tesla got the 6k ton presses, it was the first time Tesla had used one to my knowledge. Further, once the press arrived on station, the contractors got to work on the foundations, electric, gas, etc. Their timeline was further hampered by the fact that the building wasn't even wired yet. heck, there weren't even walls yet.

Now, the walls are up, electricity is run, the foundations poured, gas is available, and they have experience setting up presses (maybe not that big, but still).

Given that things have progressed in that area of the factory, it shouldn't take NEARLY as long to put it together onsite. However, it WILL take some time and time is too short in December, I would wager. Further, it'll take a little time to get the castings down though I suspect the chemistry of the source metal is pretty much nailed down as is the handling of it. Tweaking the injection speed and cooling will take a bit but not as long as the 6k ton presses as they now have data on the process with their aluminum.

Can't wait to see the GigaPress onsite!

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

When Tesla got the 6k ton presses, it was the first time Tesla had used one to my knowledge. Further, once the press arrived on station, the contractors got to work on the foundations, electric, gas, etc. Their timeline was further hampered by the fact that the building wasn't even wired yet. heck, there weren't even walls yet.

Now, the walls are up, electricity is run, the foundations poured, gas is available, and they have experience setting up presses (maybe not that big, but still).

Given that things have progressed in that area of the factory, it shouldn't take NEARLY as long to put it together onsite. However, it WILL take some time and time is too short in December, I would wager. Further, it'll take a little time to get the castings down though I suspect the chemistry of the source metal is pretty much nailed down as is the handling of it. Tweaking the injection speed and cooling will take a bit but not as long as the 6k ton presses as they now have data on the process with their aluminum.

Can't wait to see the GigaPress onsite!

All of what you say is true except one thing; new 6K machines still take a couple months to get operational and they have done at GA now 4 times.

I am sure that we all agree with your last statement.

 

[SpaceYooper]

When Tesla got the 6k ton presses, it was the first time Tesla had used one to my knowledge. Further, once the press arrived on station, the contractors got to work on the foundations, electric, gas, etc. Their timeline was further hampered by the fact that the building wasn't even wired yet. heck, there weren't even walls yet.

Now, the walls are up, electricity is run, the foundations poured, gas is available, and they have experience setting up presses (maybe not that big, but still).

Given that things have progressed in that area of the factory, it shouldn't take NEARLY as long to put it together onsite. However, it WILL take some time and time is too short in December, I would wager. Further, it'll take a little time to get the castings down though I suspect the chemistry of the source metal is pretty much nailed down as is the handling of it. Tweaking the injection speed and cooling will take a bit but not as long as the 6k ton presses as they now have data on the process with their aluminum.

Can't wait to see the GigaPress onsite!

Okay...so is that a Yea or Nay for a production CT in the hands of a paying reservation holder before 1 Oct?

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