Does everyone believe FSD will be viable in the next 3 years? 5 years? 10 years?

Jhodgesatmb

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I've been thinking this over now for 2 years, and I still can't internalize the speed at which the AI will be able to completely replace human driving. My best guess is trucking companies will be the first approved for "NO DRIVER" operation, probably in convoy first, and not (widespread) before the end of 2022. Beyond that, very difficult to project. Longer term (by 2025), I do expect almost ALL US jurisdictions to allow "certified" vehicles to operate autonomously in all public roadways. Whether these are delivery drones first, or human passenger vehicles is an open question. I could be too conservative, but I do NOT believe I'm being to aggressive on these estimates. There's just too much to the "time is money" equation to see this approval to operate taking any longer.
It is very easy for me to imagine a time when FSD will be of value to me, but it is equally difficult for me to imagine a time when seeing a vehicle with no driver feels safe. Clearly I am stuck in some time loop where having a person behind the wheel, even if they are doing nothing, seems better. What I want to know is that the autonomous vehicle won’t do anything that would put people at risk, so no matter how stupid a person in another car is the autonomous vehicle doesn’t make things worse. If such guarantees can be made then I suspect policy would follow pretty quickly.
 
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I think you will see California allow FSD very quickly after it rolls out to the fleet
https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/15/21517833/cruise-driverless-cars-test-permit-california-dmv

https://www.wired.com/story/california-self-driving-cars-log-most-miles/

https://www.engadget.com/nuro-california-dmv-deployment-permit-214528906.html

California will almost certainly be the first place to allow driverless Teslas. Further, California is the only state where Tesla provides its specialized insurance.
 

MexiTruck

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I drive in two very different environments.

1. Semi-rural Canada, on two-lane roads and four-lane divided highways. Gentle, speed limit obeying, “rules of the road” baby boomer type folks, in a mild west coast climate.

2. Rural Mexico with two-lane roads, two-lane highways and four-lane divided highways. Drivers who view traffic control signs as being suggestions.

i feel comfortable driving in each of these situations because I know how driving in each environment really works. Stopping at a stop sign in my part of Mexico would be as unpredictable as not stopping at a stop sign in my part if Canada.

I wonder how FSD would work in these two different environments.
 

Dids

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I drive in two very different environments.

1. Semi-rural Canada, on two-lane roads and four-lane divided highways. Gentle, speed limit obeying, “rules of the road” baby boomer type folks, in a mild west coast climate.

2. Rural Mexico with two-lane roads, two-lane highways and four-lane divided highways. Drivers who view traffic control signs as being suggestions.

i feel comfortable driving in each of these situations because I know how driving in each environment really works. Stopping at a stop sign in my part of Mexico would be as unpredictable as not stopping at a stop sign in my part if Canada.

I wonder how FSD would work in these two different environments.
Which do you like better?
 

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