Does everyone believe FSD will be viable in the next 3 years? 5 years? 10 years?

MEDICALJMP

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No where in my comment did I say driven in a white out condition. There are plenty of snow falls where the street is covered but they have not plowed side roads or non-emergency routes. In my city they do not hit residential roads until after emergency snow routes, main roads and the inner city highways have been cleared to at least 80%. There are plenty of places that get snow falls once every few years (Atlanta, Washington D.C.) which the city is unprepared to clear roads. You, being a reasonably competent driver, would have zero problem navigating the roadways. My question is when will the computer be able to do the same?

You don’t get full autonomy at level 5 as has been promised without these scenarios. Level 5 predictions have led many to predict and render designs of vehicles without driver controls. I would expect my car to refuse to drive through the 4 foot snow drifts during a white-out blizzard with 80 mile per hour winds to hit Starbucks for my venti-latte (“I’m sorry. I can’t do that, Dave”). I can’t call my boss to say I’m not covering my ICU shift because my Cybertruck is having a tantrum since it can’t see the lane markers on 1” of snow covered through the residential roads.





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Dids

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No where in my comment did I say driven in a white out condition. There are plenty of snow falls where the street is covered but they have not plowed side roads or non-emergency routes. In my city they do not hit residential roads until after emergency snow routes, main roads and the inner city highways have been cleared to at least 80%. There are plenty of places that get snow falls once every few years (Atlanta, Washington D.C.) which the city is unprepared to clear roads. You, being a reasonably competent driver, would have zero problem navigating the roadways. My question is when will the computer be able to do the same?

You don’t get full autonomy at level 5 as has been promised without these scenarios. Level 5 predictions have led many to predict and render designs of vehicles without driver controls. I would expect my car to refuse to drive through the 4 foot snow drifts during a white-out blizzard with 80 mile per hour winds to hit Starbucks for my venti-latte (“I’m sorry. I can’t do that, Dave”). I can’t call my boss to say I’m not covering my ICU shift because my Cybertruck is having a tantrum since it can’t see the lane markers on 1” of snow covered through the residential roads.
Wouldn't that be the same thing for a dirt road? No lane markers on dirt roads.
When you say you have zero problems navigating snow covered roads the accident numbers say different.
 

ajdelange

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I'll just point out that visible light sensors don't work very well in poor visibility conditions. I got caught in the wet snow of about a week ago and as I drove the display kept ligting up with warning messages as the individual cameras got blocked. The radar and sonar senaora kept working though so I could see what was out in front and to the sides and rear.
 

MEDICALJMP

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Wouldn't that be the same thing for a dirt road? No lane markers on dirt roads.
When you say you have zero problems navigating snow covered roads the accident numbers say different.
You are conflating slippery conditions of stopping versus my going from A to B in a reasonable expectation of staying in my “lane”, especially a two lane, bidirectional road. Most snow accidents are due to inadequate following distance due to road conditions, not because someone migrated into another lane.
 

ajdelange

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You are conflating slippery conditions ....
I think the real value of this forum is that those of us who drive BEV's, particularly Teslas, can pass along our experiences to those (about 2/3 of the participants) who haven't yet. In that regard I'd like to report that the torque vectoring (anti skid braking) in dual motor Teslas is excellent in slippery conditions.
 
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Dids

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You are conflating slippery conditions of stopping versus my going from A to B in a reasonable expectation of staying in my “lane”, especially a two lane, bidirectional road. Most snow accidents are due to inadequate following distance due to road conditions, not because someone migrated into another lane.
True. But why wouldn't fsd be able to use the same inputs you do in navigating the reduced conditions road? You reduce your speed and stay right. You don't actually know that you are keeping in your lane as marked, but it doesn't matter because you reduced your speed and so has everyone else.
 
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I'll just point out that visible light sensors don't work very well in poor visibility conditions. I got caught in the wet snow of about a week ago and as I drove the display kept ligting up with warning messages as the individual cameras got blocked. The radar and sonar senaora kept working though so I could see what was out in front and to the sides and rear.
Check out "Dirty Tesla" on U tube driving FSD beta in the dark and masking individual cameras. It turns out that it does really well with just the main front camera and the radar.Lots of redundancy in the set up, so individual camera issues don't affect performance too much. I am currently finding the autopilot much better than me in low Scottish winter sun, and on rainy motorways full of trucks.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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...That humans take chances when they probably shouldn't, Han Solo.

Though I agree with your conclusion ^-^

-Crissa
And I agree with yours, and I have ignored common sense more times than I can count. I count myself in the group of lucky ones that are still alive after having done so, but I don’t expect it to last forever.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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Check out "Dirty Tesla" on U tube driving FSD beta in the dark and masking individual cameras. It turns out that it does really well with just the main front camera and the radar.Lots of redundancy in the set up, so individual camera issues don't affect performance too much. I am currently finding the autopilot much better than me in low Scottish winter sun, and on rainy motorways full of trucks.
I do watch his FSD beta videos and not just because he drives in my home town but because I want to see the good and the bad and what needs to be improved upon with FSD. I am very much encouraged by these videos.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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Check out "Dirty Tesla" on U tube driving FSD beta in the dark and masking individual cameras. It turns out that it does really well with just the main front camera and the radar.Lots of redundancy in the set up, so individual camera issues don't affect performance too much. I am currently finding the autopilot much better than me in low Scottish winter sun, and on rainy motorways full of trucks.
Just this morning he showed his car on FSD beta 9 on a frozen road, and he lives way out somewhere north of Ann Arbor where there are no lane markers at any time and his car does just fine. I would encourage anyone talking about FSD to watch all of his videos because they not only show all but also show dramatic improvement over the betas.
 

Crissa

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Yeah, that 'Dirty Tesla' guy lives near a sample of some of the worst roads I have ever driven on.

Sure, out here we have mountains and tight roads, but they aren't just straight up misleading like the roads in Detroit.

-Crissa
 

Revoltlution

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My feelings:
Current progress points to Tesla's Level 5 FSD is 1-2 years away...extended adoption of robotaxis probably in 2-3 years. Robotaxi, combined with efficient EVs will create a very low cost/mile true paradigm shift. The tsunami is coming!
I haven't found any other manufacturers working on Level 5, let alone having a massive fleet collecting real world data.
 

biovmrct22

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I've been thinking this over now for 2 years, and I still can't internalize the speed at which the AI will be able to completely replace human driving. My best guess is trucking companies will be the first approved for "NO DRIVER" operation, probably in convoy first, and not (widespread) before the end of 2022. Beyond that, very difficult to project. Longer term (by 2025), I do expect almost ALL US jurisdictions to allow "certified" vehicles to operate autonomously in all public roadways. Whether these are delivery drones first, or human passenger vehicles is an open question. I could be too conservative, but I do NOT believe I'm being to aggressive on these estimates. There's just too much to the "time is money" equation to see this approval to operate taking any longer.
 

DCL777

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I love the idea of FSD for some scenarios including trips. I also have a son that may never drive, so having full FSD would provide freedom to both of us... but, without other manufacturers pushing as hard as Tesla, I wonder if/when it will truly be a fully working product.

I understand that Tesla has big plans for FSD with Robotaxi's and such, but I would think that they will be delayed until they have more companies pushing along side them to open up regulations.

I ordered it with my Tri-Motor since it will be 2 yrs or so until I get it... if I was ordering one for delivery in the next month or 2, I probably wouldn't pay the premium.

What say you?
i would purchase the FSD. So far betting on Elon has proven to be more reliabable than betting against. I have driven a FSD and i don't own one yet but I really want it. Long drives, late nights, it's a great product. Then after i purchase my new tesla (in five years) i put the current one in the robo fleet and have it pay for the one that comes next.
 

DCL777

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My feelings:
Current progress points to Tesla's Level 5 FSD is 1-2 years away...extended adoption of robotaxis probably in 2-3 years. Robotaxi, combined with efficient EVs will create a very low cost/mile true paradigm shift. The tsunami is coming!
I haven't found any other manufacturers working on Level 5, let alone having a massive fleet collecting real world data.
I think you will see California allow FSD very quickly after it rolls out to the fleet
 

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