How long to 50k Trucks delivered? (Plotted out)

[Ogre]

Was thinking about when I would get my truck (again) so I thought I would make a quick plot. This is a fairly simple model, but likely about as close as any. The chart assumes production starts in June, though I do have a sample of what a later start might look like.

The baseline (blue) is Model Y production during the previous year. The growth rate I plugged in there seems in the ballpark. It hits the 20,000 units produced at roughly 11 months which corresponds to reality. Also shows about 3,000 cars/ month similar to actual.

I’ve heard a couple comments from Tesla and others which suggest ramping is logarithmic and that it takes between 12 and 18 months to hit full production. So the green and the grey lines project a 18 or 12 month ramp respectively. Yellow is the same as the 12 month ramp, but with a 2 month delay in production start.

My feeling is the bulk of the area between the yellow and the gray lines is where production will most likely end up.

I’ll follow up with some thoughts on how you can use this to figure your deliver time in a separate post.

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[Ogre]

This chart pushes out a bit further, starting a bit later in 2024.

The green line here is a continuation of the green line in the previous. I made 2 models, the lighter green assumes factory capacity will be capped at 300k trucks/ year. The darker green line assumes capacity grows to 500k trucks/ year.

With the gold lines its based on the faster growth line in the previous chart (actually the gray one), and similarly shows the difference between scaling to 500k trucks versus 300k trucks.

Plug in your favorite cancellation rate, plus subtract a few for international sales. Take that number and look at the above chart. Most likely you’ll get your truck sometime between when the yellow line crosses your number and when the green line does.

If your modified RN number is beyond 500k, give yourself a hug and hope that they do ramp up to 500k trucks per year!

 

[jerhenderson]

... 50k by end of 2023.

 

[Ogre]

Not a problem… They’d need to start production in April and be producing 3,750 trucks a week by year end. That doesn’t sound like Musk’s “Very Slow Start”, but it’s possible I suppose.

 

[charliemagpie]

IMO If we start mid June 23**, we will ramp to nearly 5000 per week by January.

With such a high outstanding pile of gold, I expect more 9T installed in 2024 to enable production to over 250,000 for the year.

** I wonder of the Austin expansion has anything to do with the CT. If so, the ramping won't start proper till that is finished. Other than that, my prediction stands.

 

[Diehard]

As usual I am off the charts. How long to 750K?

 

[SolarWizard]

I dont believe anyone outside employees and some hand picked influencers ( ? ) will get any for quite some time. Has anyone even spotted a truck towing even once thus far? The semis were seen towing a long time before deliveries

 

[Crissa]

Influencers generally don't get cars earlier than their orders were placed, that I know of.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

As usual I am off the charts. How long to 750K?

If you are at 750k based on the RN, you will probably be 400k - 600k after cancellations and international orders so don’t give up hope.

 

[Ogre]

I dont believe anyone outside employees and some hand picked influencers ( ? ) will get any for quite some time. Has anyone even spotted a truck towing even once thus far? The semis were seen towing a long time before deliveries

Deliveries will likely start in earnest by year end. There are only so many 1000s of employees and insiders.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

... 50k by end of 2023.

If we go with that figure, 75K will come faster than many expect.
Seeing my reservation sits about there, l suggest Australia won't see deliveries for _QUITE SOME TIME_
_'Its The Vibe'_

 

[jerhenderson]

Not a problem…

They’d need to start production in April and be producing 3,750 trucks a week by year end. That doesn’t sound like Musk’s “Very Slow Start”, but it’s possible I suppose.

no paint and folded exterior.... faster ramp ?

 

[Crissa]

no paint and folded exterior.... faster ramp ?

Hopefully!

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

no paint and folded exterior.... faster ramp ?

I sure hope so.

New, production line nobody has tested at scale. They haven’t even finished the battery factory which will supply the truck. Nor the cathode factory which will supply the battery factory.

Mostly, Musk said it would be a slow ramp. I’m trying to model the things I know Tesla management has said and no more.

 

[Gurule92]

... 50k by end of 2023.

no paint and folded exterior.... faster ramp ?

50k in 23 feels super unlikely, but i am literally like 49,871. Kinda want that '24 delivery with tax credit applied at purchase but im not gonna cry if i get it early lol

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